Forecasting 2024 Holiday Shopping Trends

Consumers are excited about the upcoming holiday season, but worried about their budgets. Lower inflation and interest rates are good news for shoppers, but spending is slowing down heading into the holiday season.

A slowdown in consumer spending this summer could signal a slower holiday season overall, though the impact of lower interest rates on consumer shopping is yet to be seen. A soft landing in addition to holiday enthusiasm can buoy retail sales this season.

More than half (53%) of U.S. consumers anticipate spending about the same this holiday season as they did last year, while 30% plan to spend less. Achieving those goals will be a challenge. Inflation may have slowed but prices are still higher than they were a year ago. Shoppers will either have to find bargains or reduce their overall consumption to stick to their holiday budgets.

While November is the critical month of holiday shopping — 62% of respondents said they’ll do most of their shopping that month — shoppers plan ahead. Getting inspiration and gift guides in front of consumers ASAP is critical, despite the grumblings about seeing holiday advertising before Halloween.

To help brands calibrate their expectations for holiday sales and anticipate channel-specific consumer responses, we surveyed 4,402 U.S. adults about their holiday finances, shopping activity and gifting plans.