Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/10 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) SF 49ers/Seattle Seahawks First Half Over 24.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

This is a stretch of games for the 49ers where I’m going back to an old reliable angle with first half overs. San Fran loves to put up points early, especially in divisional games where they know they have an advantage over the defense. I think that’s the case here, as Seattle has shown its true self on the defensive side of the ball after weeks of facing awful quarterback play.

But the Seahawks have a truly elite offense themselves, and one that has no problem getting into a pass-happy shootout. I think both teams are going to try to throw the ball early to set up the run late, but it likely just devolves into trading shots most of the night. These are big-play offenses ranked 2nd and 9th in yards per play, they just need to clean some things up in the red zone. If that happens tonight, then I see a start similar to the past 3 meetings that have averaged 30.0 first half points.

Thursday Night Football Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Geno Smith Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – Geno Smith Over 24.5 Completions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Geno Smith Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jauan Jennings Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jauan Jennings Anytime TD (+275)

0.25 Unit – Kenneth Walker Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – DK Metcalf Alt Over 5.5 Receptions (+135)

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx +6.5 @ NY Liberty (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

My thinking after the Lynx advanced in Game 5 on Tuesday was that this is going to be a tough turnaround for them. They have to travel to face a Liberty team with a significant rest advantage, and I would expect them to be sizable underdogs that probably aren’t worth betting on. But this number is just too big for a finals game where the Lynx have been the better team all season.

It’s like the books just recycled the number they’ve applied to this matchup all season, as the Lynx have closed within half a point of +6 in all four meetings. And the books have not been able to line this matchup correctly, with Minnesota going 3-1 ATS with three outright wins. It won’t be easy tonight given the rest and travel, but this Lynx squad has always surprised in situations like this all year, so I’ll count on them to at least keep this close.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) James Madison First Half Team Total Over 18.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2

James Madison really blew it last week, reading too many of their own press clippings after two monstrous blowouts and thinking they’d skate to the CFP. But a flat spot on the road bit them hard, so I expect a veteran team to come out with a vengeance tonight and try to make up for the poor performance. Thanks to those two blowout wins, the Dukes are 4th nationally in first half scoring at 26.0 PPG, so they can turn it on when they want to.

Coastal Carolina’s defense isn’t likely to put up much resistance if JMU is locked in, as the Chanticleers are 93rd in first half points allowed against a very suspect schedule of offenses. The lone quality offense they saw, Virginia, put up 27 before halftime on Coastal’s own field, so a defense that’s 95th in yards per point allowed is ripe to get shredded by an angry James Madison squad tonight.

Degenerates

MLB NY Yankees/KC Royals First 5 Innings Over 4.5 (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 7:08 PM CT on TBS

I know this is an elimination game where things are likely to be tight, but I can’t help but lean to lots of early runs here. Especially at this juicy price with the potential these offenses have, even though they haven’t realized that potential in this postseason yet. The lone offensive breakout happened in Game 1 though, when these same starters faced off, and most of it happened early with 7 runs in the first 5 innings. Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha get the start again, this time on short rest, and with poor long relievers behind them. And if the Yankee stars like Aaron Judge ever decide to show up for some October baseball, we could see another offense-oriented game to start this one.

Tiny Nick has gained +83.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.