Texans vs. Patriots prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats

Drake Maye will make his first NFL start Sunday when the Patriots (1-4) welcome the Houston Texans (4-1) at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. The rookie out of North Carolina steps under center in place of Jacoby Brissett who has been largely ineffective for New England.

These are two teams with opposite trajectories. Following a win in the Stefon Diggs revenge game over the Bills, the Texans appear to be the class of the AFC South and among the elite in the AFC while the Patriots have lost 4 straight and as a result, figure it is time to start to see what their top pick from the 2024 draft has to offer before they enter possibly the top of the 2025 Draft. The Texans will be without their leading receiver, Nico Collins, but still boast a bevy of skilled targets for QB C.J. Stroud.

Lets dive into the matchup and search for value and a couple sweats keeping in mind there is a question mark under center for each team.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

Game Details and How to watch Texans @ Patriots

• Date: Sunday, October 13, 2024
• Time: 1PM EST
• Site: Gillette Stadium
• City: Foxborough, MA
• TV/Streaming: CBS

Want to check out the other games on the NFL schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for Texans @ Patriots

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Houston Texans (-290), New England Patriots (+235)
• Spread: Texans -6.5
• Total: 38

This line has bounced between 6 and 7 favoring the Texans currently sitting right in the middle. The Total has dropped slightly as the market does not believe the rookie for the Pats will be able to put up many points.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bets

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) likes a player prop in this contest:
“Stefon Diggs OVER 59.5 receiving yards. He’s gone over this number in three straight games. Yes, there’s no Nico Collins, so there’ll be more defensive attention on him, but Stefon Diggs is a guy who can win in the one-on-one, and he has a good catch radius. He’s Mr. Reliable, getting eight targets per game. I have to take his OVER.”

Texans @ Patriots Betting Trends and Statistics

• The Texans have covered the spread in only one of their last five games.
• The Patriots have won their last four home games against Houston.
• The UNDER has cashed in each of the Texans’ last 4 games.

Quarterback matchup for Texans @ Patriots

• Houston: C.J. Stroud – the 2^nd-year pro out of Ohio State ranks 3^rd in the NFL with 1385 passing yards and 10^th with 7 TDs.
• New England: Drake Maye – rookie out of North Carolina making his 1^st career start. His only regular season time was in the 4^th quarter in the Pats 24-3 loss to the Jets. He was 4-8 for 22 yards.

Texans and Patriots injury update

• New England RB1 Rhamondre Stevenson (foot) has not practiced this week and is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.
• New England WR Kendrick Bourne (knee) has been limited this week in practice and is questionable for Sunday’s game.
• New England LT Vederian Lowe (undisclosed) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
• Houston RB1 Joe Mixon (ankle) has practiced this week but is questionable for Sunday’s game.
• Houston RB2 Dameon Pierce (hamstring) has been limited in practice this week and is questionable for Sunday’s game.
• Houston S Jimmie Ward (groin) has not practiced this week and is questionable for Sunday’s game.
• Houston WR1 Nico Collins (hamstring) has been placed on IR and has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game.

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest betting info & tools for NFL with game predictions, player props, futures, and trends!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff: