Why The Tesla Robotaxi Is ‘Sell The News’ Event

Tesla (TSLA) and Chief Executive Elon Musk set sky-high expectations for the “We Robot” event. But after showing off a Cybercab and Robovan Thursday night, the market seems unimpressed with Musk once more claiming full autonomous driving will come “next year” and with no updates of an “affordable” EV.

The event Thursday was high on theatrics with Musk riding the two-seat Cybercab, with butterfly doors and no steering wheel, briefly to the stage to give his remarks. Dancing Optimus robots were paraded out with the Tesla humanoids serving attendees drinks. However, the consensus among analysts Friday was that while the event was high on pomp and circumstance, it underdelivered on details.

“That’s it? Disappointing lack of detail,” Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley’s high-profile auto analyst and a TSLA bull, proclaimed in his investor note Friday morning. Wells Fargo analysts echoed that sentiment, writing that Tesla’s robotaxi event was mostly “razzle-dazzle” with “little substance.”

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Meanwhile, Barclays analysts expect investors to “sell the news,” with both bulls and bears “emboldened.”

Jonas said he had been looking for on quantifiable data on the improvements to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving, known as FSD. Jonas was also expecting strategy on the business for a supervised and unsupervised ride-sharing service.

“We were overall disappointed with the substance and detail of the presentation. As such, we anticipated TSLA to be under pressure following the event,” Jonas added.

Piper Sandler analysts on Friday wrote that while the Tesla robotaxi event “was amazing,” it’s not enough to move the needle on TSLA. The analysts said that the “most trading-oriented firms will be underwhelmed by the robotaxi unveiling.”

The firm would not be surprised if the stock sells off in the coming weeks as “pre-event momentum” fizzles. However, Piper Sandler analysts added that “true believers” in Tesla “have every reason to feel energized” following the event.

Tesla stock sold off 9% to 217.25 during market action on Friday, undercutting its 50-day moving average. As Tesla fell early Friday, Uber Technologies (UBER) jumped 6%, moving above a 78.45 handle buy point.

Uber Jumps As ‘Toothless’ Tesla Robotaxi Is ‘Best-Case Outcome’

Tesla Robotaxi Event: What Investors Learned

Musk didn’t offer significant details Thursday about business models, such as a ride-hailing service and notably, Tesla did not show or even mention an “affordable” vehicle.

That cheaper model is supposed to enter production by mid-2025, but there have been no images of that, let alone a prototype. An affordable EV is key to Tesla’s near-term efforts to boost deliveries and use up excess capacity at its existing plants. Meanwhile, there had been speculation Tesla would launch a ride-hailing service with human drivers at the event.

Tesla Robotaxi Event: Cybercab, Robovan Unveiled; Musk Sees Self-Driving ‘Next Year’

Musk expects the Cybercab price tag will be below $30,000, with production starting “before 2027.”
Further, he expects “fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in California and Texas next year — that’s with the Model 3 and Model Y.”

However, he admitted, “I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames.”

Musk has said for years that Tesla would achieve self-driving “this year” or “next year,” while production targets often slip considerably. He also didn’t offer new evidence that Tesla FSD was making progress toward actual self-driving.

The Tesla head also showed off a large Robovan, but with no timing on when that will go into production.

Musk also showed off the latest Optimus robot, with a handful walking around. He expects that the cost could be $25,000-$30,000 when produced at scale.

Tesla is pushing hard to boost sales and FSD take rates in Q4. On Thursday, Tesla announced it will again let owners transfer FSD to a new Model 3, Y, S or X through Dec. 31. That comes on the heels of 0% financing for Model 3 and Y buys that include buying FSD.

Tesla Stock Near Buy Point

In Thursday market action, Tesla stock edged down nearly 1% to 238.77, hitting a low of 232.34 intraday. Heading into Friday, TSLA shares were down 4.5% on the week.

Tesla stock has a 264.86 cup-with-handle buy point, according to MarketSurge chart analysis. The 250 area offers an early entry.

Shares fell in early October after third-quarter Tesla deliveries failed to meet whisper numbers. Tesla will report Q3 earnings on Oct. 23.

Tesla stock ranks fourth in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 61 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 45 Relative Strength Rating and a 57 EPS Rating.

Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.

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