With Padres’ dream of winning World Series over, thoughts turn to club’s future

Is it really over?

Yes.

And it hit hard.

“Right now, I can’t think of the good moments,” Jurickson Profar said Friday night. “We’re out of the playoffs.”

That is how the postseason cruelly turns on a team of destiny.

One Wednesday night, you’re feeling the sweet sting of champagne in your eyes. Nine days later, you’re just feeling the sting.

“It’s tough, man,” Manny Machado said. “Any loss, you know, but this team, proud of these guys, man. All year they’ve — since spring training —  worked their butts off to get here. And a lot of (people) counted us out, and we overcame a lot of things. Just proud of how this group fought and fought to the end, and we came up short.”

A loss in the National League Division Series to the team with the major leagues’ best record does not change the fact the Padres were really good in 2024.

Really good teams often don’t win the World Series. Happens all the time.

Around the quiet visitors clubhouse at Dodger Stadium late Friday night, most everyone was willing to address what made this Padres team so thrilling and endearing and good — and made the end so bitterly shocking.

“We had it all, to be honest,” Xander Bogaerts said.

Bogaerts is not prone to exaggeration. He is where you go for reason and perspective.

Amid the hype following Game 1 of the NLDS, he nonchalantly but emphatically shot down an assertion by a reporter that Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani perhaps reminded him of his former teammate, Hall of Famer David Ortiz, who hit almost .700 in the 2013 World Series.

“No, no, no,” Bogaerts said. “… There’s nothing that I’ve seen close to that yet.”

But on Friday, he recalled the second of his World Series teams, the 108-win Red Sox of 2018, roundly considered one of the most dominant champions of all-time.

“Similar to our 2018 Red Sox,” Bogaerts said Friday. “I mean, just we were just that good, you know. And kind of had a lot of feeling of similarities with this team and that team, but it didn’t get the job done.”

No. They did not.

The team that led the major leagues with a .263 batting average in the regular season hit .217 in the five-game NLDS. The team that ranked fourth in the major leagues with a .269 batting average with runners in scoring position hit .182 (6-for-33) in that circumstance in the NLDS. The team that ranked second in the major leagues with a .269 average in close-and-late situations hit .040 (1-for-25) in those situations in the NLDS. The team that got shut out in consecutive games once over the course of 162 games did not score in the final 24 innings of the NLDS.

The Dodgers bullpen subjugated the Padres, allowing six runs in Game 2 and none over 22 innings in the other four games. In all, Dodgers relievers combined to post a 2.08 ERA, allow a .181 batting average and strand five of the six runners they inherited during the series.

The bullpen that A.J. Preller built and then supplemented at the trade deadline was up to the task as well, posting a 1.86 ERA over 19⅓ innings while allowing a .219 batting average. The pockmark on their series was allowing five of 12 inherited runners to score, including two crucial ones in Game 1.

“The bullpen showed up this series, but the hitting maybe wasn’t the way we know it to be,” Bogaerts said. “But the playoff baseball is a little different, too. But, yeah, that was the only part that didn’t show up — at least consistently.”

That will haunt them for a while.

That is what missed opportunity does.

It had all felt so right, so familiar, with the heart-shaped patch with the “PS” inside it and the feeling that former team chairman Peter Seidler was somehow still with them.

“This was the time that felt like, with everything that had happened, and him being up there kind of looking down on us, guiding us, it would be an even (more) special year,” Bogaerts said. “But didn’t happen.”

Yu Darvish, the stoic pitcher, tapped the patch before throwing his first pitch Friday.

“You’re given the ball to pitch in these big games,” Darvish, who allowed two runs in 6 ⅔ innings in Game 5, said through interpreter Shingo Horie. “And for me, it was about wanting to do this for Peter Seidler. And you know, unfortunately, the game went on like it did.”

Such is the nature of October. It doesn’t make sense sometimes.

So, yes, it is over. The 2024 Padres are no more. It is possible – even probable — that about half of the 35 players who made significant contributions to this 93-win season will not be around in 2025. (A few are already gone).

We spent a good portion of the past seven months talking about what happened.

So let’s turn this forward.

“I firmly expect this group to come back and be ready to go for the consecutive playoff run for two, three, four years,” manager Mike Shildt said. “That will be historic in San Diego baseball history.”

Decisions, decisions

The Padres will bring back the core of their team — Bogaerts, Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr.. But they were characterized by having different heroes at different points in the season, sometimes from game to game.

The challenge, then, is to replicate that when likely having to replace multiple important pieces while trying to keep costs in check.

And, to be sure, the Padres are committed to a payroll closer to the 2024 level ($169 million) than 2023 ($265 million). Balancing their substantial long-term, big-money commitments with lower-priced contributors was always the aim at some point, and Preller and his group showed how well they could do it this season. By all indications, there is no going back.

So, some things to consider in light of the team’s fiscal responsibility and the financial level certain players have played their way into:

• The Padres might bring back Ha-Seong Kim at $8 million, because one year would serve as a nice placeholder for top prospect Leo De Vries. (Make no mistake, whatever the various rankings say, De Vries is internally considered the organization’s No. 1 prospect.) But Kim is virtually certain to decline that option, take a $2 million buyout and test free agency.
• Kyle Higashioka said this was the most fun he ever had on a team. He loved being back in Southern California, too, where he could surf during the season. But Higashioka also picked a fortuitous time to hit a career-high 17 home runs in just 246 at-bats while catching a career-high 665 innings. He is a free agent for the first time. The position is in flux until Ethan Salas, who is right there with De Vries, arrives. Luis Campusano began the season as the team’s primary starter and ended it in Triple-A. There very well could be two new catchers on the opening-day roster in 2025.
• Left fielder Jurickson Profar is comfortable in San Diego, loves his teammates and learned when he left after 2022 that the grass is not always as green when chasing the green. But he has earned the right to command far, far, far more than $1 million plus bonuses, his 2024 salary. Industry estimates have him worth upwards of $10 million annually on a multi-year deal after his breakout All-Star season. He was for much of the season the Padres’ most significant contributor. But he will be 32 in February. Is he worth that much to the Padres? Is the place where he has had his greatest success worth enough to him to take less?
• Donovan Solano and David Peralta saved the Padres. They will both be 37 when spring training rolls around. Neither figures to be available for less than $2 million per year.
• The Padres won eight of Martín Pérez’s 10 starts. But if it was not already certain he was a rental, his not being used in the NLDS even after Joe Musgrove went down cemented the certainty he is moving on.
• The Padres would love to keep left-hander Tanner Scott, but that is not happening as the All-Star closer is a free agent for the first time.

Rotation equation

Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery on Friday, leaving the Padres with three certain members of their rotation.

It is a solid three: Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Michael King.

They have Randy Vásquez, who more than acquitted himself as a fine back-of-the-rotation starter. They also could have Matt Waldron in the mix, should he commit to the idea that his knuckleball is a viable weapon.

The health of Jhony Brito (elbow strain) could factor into some decision-making. There has always been talk of eventually making Adrián Morejón a starter again, though his durability is a concern.

Regardless, the Padres will likely be in the market for two starting pitchers to supplement their depth.

Bullpen depth

Jason Adam is under team control for two more years. So, with closer Robert Suarez, the eighth and ninth innings are covered.

Jeremiah Estrada finished strong in a season in which he pitched far more than he ever had, even in the minor leagues. So there is the seventh inning (and sometimes the eighth, too).

Morejón provides a left-handed option in the later innings. And the Padres were thrilled with the development of Stephen Kolek, whose season was cut short by forearm tendinitis, and Sean Reynolds.

The belief left-hander Yuki Matsui learned a lot in his first season in MLB is bolstered by his ball-strike ratio improving greatly. He is one of three left-handed middle-relief options, along with Wandy Peralta and Tom Cosgrove.

For all the gold Preller found in 2024, it does bear mentioning that Peralta had a 3.89 ERA and allowed 44% of his inherited runners to score. The Padres owe him $13.15 million over the next three seasons.

Table setter

There is a reason Luis Arraez has been traded twice in the past two years and won three straight batting titles for three different teams.

Batting average sans slug, and especially without an exceptionally high on-base percentage, is simply not valued all that highly.

Arraez certainly knows it. This was all one thought, with no prompting from reporters regarding a trade, after Friday night’s game:

“I’ll be more strong next year,” Arraez said, referring to the thumb injury he played through the final half of the season. “I’ll come back healthy. I’ll come back with more energy. I want to play for only one team next year. I don’t know if they’ll trade me, but I want to only play for one team and I want to stay focused for only one team. I don’t want to think about a trade. I just want to play for the San Diego Padres next year.”

The Padres valued what Arraez brought in 2024. But they also had the Marlins paying all but $592,796 of his contract. He is likely due more than $13 million in arbitration in his final season of arbitration.

Arraez is represented by Dan Lozano, who also represents Profar. Lozano knows how to get deals done with the Padres, as he is the agent for Tatis and Machado as well.

Shortstop gap

The organization places virtually no limits on its top prospects.

There is talk that both De Vries and Salas could be in the big leagues at some point in 2025. It seems like a long shot. DeVries turned 18 on Friday, and Salas won’t be 19 until June.

What that means, though, is that there are only short-term options needed to fill two key positions.

We have discussed the possibility of two new catchers at the start of next season.

There are no shortage of shortstop options on the roster. And it is an open secret that Tatis would not mind playing there again.

The fact is, however, the organization believes Merrill and Tatis are outfielders now.

It seems likely the infield that finished this season could be the one that the Padres plan on next season, with Bogaerts at shortstop one more time.

Extension on tap?

Managers are arguably undervalued in today’s game. In some organizations, where analytics rule and the front office dictates many in-game strategies, this is justifiable.

That is not the case with the Padres. Shildt did as much as anyone in resetting the culture within the team by getting players to buy into his philosophy of “togetherness” and winning on the margins.

Terms of Shildt’s contract, which runs through next season, are not known. But those with knowledge of the market say it is in the bottom third in annual value.

The leverage Shildt has is that if the Padres win again in 2025, the cost to keep him will be much higher.

Niebla’s status

The Padres pitching coach’s contract is up.

This should be a no-brainer, as the Imperial Valley native has been a driving force in revolutionizing the Padres’ analysis of pitchers and is roundly revered as a guru. He has contributed to the emergence of Seth Lugo and King and overseen a staff that has ranked ninth in the major leagues in ERA in his three seasons.

Originally Published: October 12, 2024 at 5:02 p.m.