Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/16 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) NY Liberty @ Minnesota Lynx +2.5 First Half (-120; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

I’m a little surprised that the Lynx are underdogs here, especially as big of dogs as the market has brought them to, and I would assume they’re surprised themselves. I think that helps push them to come out with a maximum effort here, fueled by a wild Target Center, and that should set them up for a hot start. They got off to pretty awful starts in New York, having to scramble to get back in both games, so a better first half should be a point of emphasis from Cheryl Reeve.

And we’ve seen the Liberty struggle in this kind of situation already this postseason, as they took a 2-0 lead to Vegas but found themselves trailing at halftime of Game 3. The Lynx have outperformed expectations all season and responded whenever their backs are against the wall, so look for this hyped home spot to carry them to a halftime lead, tie, or minimal deficit.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Western Kentucky/Sam Houston Over 55.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Both of these teams have a lot of explosiveness on offense, and I think we see it tonight. Both offenses play up-tempo styles, especially Sam Houston who is 14th in plays per game, with Western Kentucky not too far behind at 41st nationally.

Sam Houston has really found success in recent weeks against poor defenses that struggle against excellent dual-threat quarterback Hunter Watson. I think WKU will have trouble there as the Hilltoppers are susceptible to the run and pass, ranking 75th in rushing success rate, 126th in passing success rate, and 123rd in PFF coverage.

But the Bearkats are still a fairly small team that can be pushed around, especially on the ground as their defense is 118th in rushing success rate and 132nd in line yards. WKU will need to adapt their offense a bit to take advantage of that, but it should eventually open things up for their excellent passing attack. With this number just below the key total mark of 56 points, I can see these teams trading plenty of touchdowns to clear the total tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +83.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.