Expect Big Negative Revisions to BLS Monthly Jobs in 2023, GDP Too

Yesterday, the BLS released a little-read jobs report that shows reported jobs in 2023 may be wildly overstated. In turn, that means GDP is likely overstated as well.

BED Chart Notes

• Data is from the BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) report and the BLS monthly jobs reports (CES).
• BED data is less timely but far more accurate than the BLS monthly jobs reports/
• For 2023 Q3, the BED reports shows gross job gains of 7.559 million and gross job losses of 7.751 million for a net loss of 192,000 jobs.
• The BLS monthly jobs reports show a gain of 640,000 jobs.

BED Job Gains and Losses by Quarter

Summary of Major Differences

Note that BED data is based on 9.1 million establishments while the monthly jobs reports are only based on 670,000 establishments.

The monthly reports are timely but inaccurate. And the BLS does not revise its monthly numbers making year-over-year comparisons inaccurate as well.

I created the lead chart by netting BED data and comparing the BED net jobs to net quarterly jobs from the CES data.

BED vs CES

• 2023 Q2 BED: +332,000
• 2023 Q3 BED: -192,000
• 2023 Q2 CES: +821,000
• 2023 Q3 BED: +640,000

CES Overstatement

• 2023 Q2 CES Overstatement: 489,000 Jobs
• 2023 Q3 CES Overstatement: 832,000 Jobs
• Q2+Q3 Overstatement: 1.321 Million Jobs

Thus, the BLS says that the BLS monthly job reports for 2023 Q2 and Q3 are overstated by a total of 1.321 million jobs.

Jobs Up 303,000 Full Time Employment Down 6,000 in March

The economy continues to add a high percentage of government and social assistance jobs. Part time employment rose by 691,000 as full time employment fell by 6,000.

Not that anyone can trust the numbers, but the most recent jobs report shows Jobs Up 303,000 Full Time Employment Down 6,000 in March

For all the faith put in the monthly establishment CES Nonfarm Payrolls, the household survey provided a much more believable set of numbers (red and yellow lines).

Payrolls vs Employment Gains Since March 2023

• Nonfarm Payrolls: 2,927,000
• Employment Level: +642,000
• Full Time Employment: -1,347,000

Payrolls vs Employment Gains Since May 2022

• Nonfarm Payrolls: 6,205,000
• Employment Level: +3,152,000
• Full Time Employment:+264,000

Payrolls are up by 6.2 million since May of 2022, but full time employment up only 264 thousand.

Change in Gov’t and Social Assistance Jobs

What jobs are being created now are of dubious quality. The percentage of government and social assistance jobs to take care of the illegal immigration surge is staggering.

Denver Migrants Make 20,000 Emergency Visits

I discussed Denver on January 24. Please note Denver Health at “Critical Point” as 8,000 Migrants Make 20,000 Emergency Visits

The Denver hospital system is turning away local residents because it is flooded with migrant visits.

What’s happening in Denver is also happening in Chicago, New York City, and all the other migrant havens.

2024 Q1 GDP Underperforms Expectations at 1.6 Percent vs 2.3 Percent Expected

This morning, I reported 2024 Q1 GDP Underperforms Expectations at 1.6 Percent vs 2.3 Percent Expected

First-quarter GDP was lower than any estimate in the Bloomberg Econoday consensus range of of 1.7 percent to 2.8 percent. Inflation was higher than expected.

Expect Negative Revisions

Expect major revisions not only to the annual BLS benchmark revisions, but also to GDP.

The BED report lends huge credence to the idea that GDP data is overstated and Gross Domestic Income numbers (reflecting payrolls) are more accurate.