PFL Battle of the Giants and UFC Vegas 99 Gambling Preview: Will Francis Ngannou win his comeback fight?

It’s MMA double header this weekend as both the UFC and PFL are putting on events this Saturday. The biggest (both literally and metaphorically) is PFL Battle of the Giants, featuring the return of Francis Ngannou as he faces Renan Ferreira. That event also features a number of other marquee matchups including Cris Cyborg vs. Larissa Pacheco and Johnny Eblen vs. Fabian Edwards 2, among others. Then the UFC gives fans a wonderful little nightcap with UFC Vegas 99, headlined by a middleweight matchup between Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira.

With so much to choose from, let’s dive right into the bets this week.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Straight Bets

Larissa Pacheco (-148)

Cyborg vs. Pacheco is arguably the best fight of the entire weekend. Featuring the No. 6 and No.7 ranked women in the MMA Fighting pound-for-pound rankings, it’s a bout that, on paper, should be exceptional. But I’m not convinced.

Cyborg is an all-time great but she’s also pushing 40 years old and hasn’t looked great in years. Her last meaningful win was Julia Budd and that was back in 2020. Since then it’s been a parade of undersized or woefully overmatched opposition. Now to be fair, Pacheco has had the same issue, but the difference between them is Pacheco at least is running roughshod over that opposition.

On top of that, Cyborg has seemed wildly disinterested all week, while this is the biggest fight possible for Pacheco. All this together makes me think the younger champion is in great position to get her hand raised on Saturday.

A.J. McKee (-176)

McKee takes on Paul Hughes in the main card opener of the PFL this weekend in a fight that may very well be the people’s main event. McKee is already a star and Hughes has all the trappings of a future one, he just needs the right wins. Unfortunately for “Big News” this won’t be one of those. McKee is simply too dynamic for the young Irishman, both on the feet and on the floor. I expect Hughes to give a good showing of himself, but this is a bit too much, too soon for Hughes.

Michel Pereira (+114)

Over in the UFC, the main event between “Fluffy” Hernandez and Pereira is an absolute banger. Hernandez is one of the middleweight division’s premier grapplers and Pereira is one of the sport’s premier wild men. Since moving up to 185 though, Pereira has been less wild and more “unstoppable killing machine.” Three fights, three first-round finishes, a combined fight time of three minutes and one second. “Demolidor” has been lethal since he stopped cutting so much weight, and I believe it will continue. Hernandez needs takedowns to win and Pereira stuffs those at a 94 percent rate. “Demolidor” continues to rise up the ranks.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Prop Bets

Asu Almabayev by KO/TKO (+750)

Why not have a little fun, eh?

The prelim main event over in the UFC features Almabayev taking on Matheus Nicolau in a battle of ranked flyweights. Almabayev is one of many new hotshot guys coming in at 125 pounds and why I actually think Nicolau is probably a little undervalued straight up, I like a flyer on this line for one reason: all four of Nicolau’s career losses have come via KO or TKO.

Almabayev is going to get takedowns and when the submission game fails him, then he may pivot to ground-and-pound. I think there’s some life in this big of a line here.

Jean Matsumoto By Points (+100)

Also on the UFC prelims, Matsumoto takes on two-time The Ultimate Fighter winner Brad Katona in a bantamweight matchup that should favor him heavily. Katona wants to wrestle and grind but Matsumoto is a vastly superior athlete and striker. I think he can stuff enough takedowns and win this fight on the feet, and since Katona has never been finished, this is a good price for what is essentially the way Matsumoto can win.

Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images

Parlays

Francis Ngannou (-260)

I am, frankly, shocked that the line on Ngannou has dropped this much. Don’t get me wrong, there are reasons to doubt him — he’s been out of MMA almost three years, he was brutally KOed earlier this year, his life has been hectic — but still, the gulf in accomplishment between Ferreira and Ngannou is VAST. Like, Grand Canyon vast.

Ferreira has come along in the PFL but this is also a man who lost to Rizvan Kuniev 18 months ago! That’s the same Kuniev who just went on Contender Series this year. His best win is Ryan Bader, a career light heavyweight! I like Ferreira but the only way he wins this is if Ngannou is totally shot, and I don’t see that.

Francis is faster, hits harder, has the better chin, and is a better striker than Ferreira. It only takes one, but I’ll be pretty surprised if that one lands on Ngannou this Saturday.

Johnny Eblen (-400)

In a similar vein, I’ll be flabbergasted if Fabian Edwards beats Johnny Eblen — because they fought 13 months ago and Eblen demolished him! Yes, Edwards started that fight well, but pretty clearly the moment Eblen decided to really fight, Edwards had nothing for him. I suspect this time Eblen won’t come out so flat and make a statement early over Edwards.

Parlay these two bets together for -212 odds

Wrap Up

Should be a great weekend of fights. Honestly, I’m pretty pumped about the main card of the PFL (the undercard, we don’t need to discuss) and this UFC card is pretty solid for an APEX show. Let’s enjoy it and then it’s on to UFC 308.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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