Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/19 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) East Carolina @ Army -9.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on ESPN2

Things are starting to get inflated with Army as they enter the AP top-25, so we’re definitely at the top of the market in backing them. But I can’t just abandon what works that easily, since the Black Knights have been an absolute first half machine. They’re 6-0 against the first half spread this season, with no margin being less than a touchdown, and I think they can reach the double-digit threshold before half again today.

ECU has been awful defending the red zone, which is Army’s specialty in cashing in their methodical drives. While the Pirates had a bye week to recover from a thrashing by Charlotte, this is still a team that ranks 80th in first half scoring and 84th in first half points allowed. Compare that to Army who ranks 9th and 2nd, respectively, in those metrics, and I see a recipe for another strong start from the Black Knights.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Clemson First Half Team Total Over 20.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on ACC Network

Speaking of teams who crush it in the first half, no team has bigger scoring outputs before halftime than Clemson does. They continue to make up for lost time after getting embarrassed by Georgia in the opener, and now lead the country at 28.2 first half points per game. They’ve gone 4-1 over this first half total since the Georgia game, including 3 separate quarters of 28 or more points.

Virginia hasn’t been terrible defensively, but they haven’t faced anything close to the offensive firepower Clemson brings, or Dabo’s willingness to put the pedal to the metal. Only needing 3 first half touchdowns isn’t asking a lot from this offense, so I’m on the over here.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Rice/Tulane First Half Over 27.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN+

There’s a very realistic chance Tulane gets over this total on their own. They did it the last two weeks in blowouts against weak AAC competition, and now they face a Rice defense that’s 98th in first half scoring allowed. The Green Wave have been going nuclear since conference play started, and I think it continues here with another early outburst as their run-heavy offense tears through a Rice defense ranked 101st in rushing yards allowed. Tulane only ranks 50th in first half points allowed, and their pace will create plenty of scoring opportunities going both ways, so I see an easy path to 4 or more touchdowns here.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Ball State/Vanderbilt Over 57 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

If you’ve been paying attention to Vanderbilt before their big upset win over Alabama, you’ve seen a very good team that should continue their momentum tonight. The Commodores are two narrow road losses from being undefeated, and a lot of it has to do with an offense that’s not simply scoring at a high level.

They’re highly efficient as well, ranking 14th nationally in yards per point, and here face a Ball State defense ranked 124th in opponent yards per point, not to mention 132nd in points allowed. Vandy should score like crazy in this game, but the ‘Dores defense hasn’t been great either, ranking 81st in yards per point allowed. Ball State has shown the ability to get into shootouts with other porous defenses, and I see them contributing enough for this total to be very reachable.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Nebraska @ Indiana PK: 11:00 AM CT on FOX

I think Indiana might be a little overvalued at this point given who they’ve played, but they’ve also destroyed every opponent, and I’m only asking them to win here. Curt Cignetti can flat out coach, and I think he’ll have the Hoosiers in great shape off the bye for this game. Indiana’s balanced offense will be the toughest test Nebraska has seen all season, especially being on the road here. And a Huskers offense that has slowed down considerably with Dylan Raiola nearing the freshman wall shouldn’t be able to keep up. Give me the Hoosiers to stay undefeated.

Michigan @ Illinois +10.5: 2:30 PM CT on CBS

I’m a little surprised that Michigan is even favored in this conference road game that becomes a hyped home spot for Illinois. I just don’t think the Wolverines are very good, trading on name recognition and last year’s national title even though they’ve lost a ton of talent and obviously Jim Harbaugh. Their offense is downright bad, getting bogged down for most of the game due to a lack of explosiveness. If they find themselves in need of that today I think they come up short, especially with a high-octane Illinois offense likely to put up plenty of points again. Being able to move this number into double digits is just too good to pass up with an Illini offense that can get in the back door at minimum today.

UCF @ Iowa State -6.5: 6:30 PM CT on FS1

Roll Clones, baby! I’m really liking what I’m seeing out of my alma mater, with this team being excellent on both sides of the ball. Iowa State has passed three big tests in three straight weeks now, with two of them on the road, and it really hasn’t been close. Now their valuation changes significantly with laying two touchdowns, but getting it down to just one score on this play is great value. UCF has hit the wall, which is what you get for turning the offense over to KJ Jefferson this season, and a usually dynamic run game has gone missing. This is a massive spot for ISU, and I expect Jack Trice Stadium to be rocking for the first truly meaningful game in a long time, so I’ll play the Clones to cover this adjusted number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +82.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.