Jobs, jobs, jobs. Democrats vs. Republicans – who does it best?

It’s time to update my analysis of unemployment trends during Democratic and Republican administrations to illustrate the contrasting impact that D and R Presidents can have on the economy. I can’t say this often or loudly enough. Democrats are better than Republicans at steering the American economy. I have the receipts. It’s not even close. And I honestly don’t understand why anyone would even question it.

Biden has targeted job creation as one of his major policy objectives, and it infuses every aspect of his domestic agenda. Yet polls continue to question Dems’ ability to handle the economy and rate Republicans higher on running the economy. So let’s look at the numbers.

Since 1948, there have been 7 Republican Presidents: Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, GHW Bush, GW Bush, and Donald Trump. There have been 7 Democratic Presidents during the same time period: Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Carter, Clinton, Obama, and Biden. So there are plenty of statistics to establish which party does the best job of creating jobs and directing the economy in America. If Republicans were really better than Democrats at running the economy, there should be evidence, right?

I use unemployment statistics as a proxy for the health of the economy, specifically, the unemployment rate published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for every year since 1948. By using January numbers, I allow each President at least one year to establish an economic footprint, and I apply a consistent, non-seasonal benchmark to compare each administration.

The chart at the top shows the BLS-published unemployment data for January of every year since 1948. We can compare the change in the unemployment rate over each President’s term in office, and thereby extract a trend in employment during each administration. This will illustrate the impact each President’s administration has had on the American economy.

Since 1948, with the single exception of Jimmy Carter, every Democratic President has seen the economy improve and unemployment drop significantly during his administration. Carter had to deal with the oil crisis of 1979 and never recovered. By contrast, with the exceptions of Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan’s first term, every Republican President has presided over an economy that has seen consistent increases in unemployment. Reagan benefited from a strong recovery after the Carter oil crisis years during his first term, but in his second term, unemployment showed a consistent increase. And of course, while unemployment improved under Ford, he was in office for too short a time to effectively assess his impact. Ford’s economy may also have benefited from the immense national relief at no longer having Tricky Dick as our Chief Executive.

UNEMPLOYMENT BY PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION, 1948-2021

Based on a linear regression of the data for each President over the past 75 years, the average Republican President saw unemployment go up by 0.16 percent per year, while Dem Presidents saw unemployment numbers drop by an average of 0.3 percent each year.

Obama’s performance is especially striking. After inheriting the economic mess that W handed to him (2 unfunded wars, massive tax giveaways, and a Wall Street collapse), Obama was able to bring unemployment down from 9.8 to 4.7 percent over his 8 years in office.