Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/20 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Detroit Lions +1.5 @ Minnesota Vikings (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Sorry Vikings fans, I’m not buying the start you’ve had this season. To me, Detroit is still the class of this division, and possibly the NFC, and they’re not a team you want to give points to. The combination of Dan Campbell and Jared Goff have been elite as underdogs, going 21-9 ATS together including 9-1 in the past 10 instances.

And Goff has dominated the Vikings from an ATS standpoint, with a perfect 6-0 record against them since joining the Lions. This line is suspiciously short for an undefeated home team coming off the bye, and given the ATS splits I have to take points with Detroit here.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Detroit Lions/Minnesota Vikings Over 50.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

I’m a little surprised to see this total actually get pushed up into the 50’s considering how infrequently totals this high have gone over in recent years. But smart money is seeing two offenses that are operating at the highest levels right now, especially Detroit who toyed with my Cowboys last week.

The loss of Aidan Hutchinson is big for the Lions, and will put more pressure on a secondary that has struggled to hold up in coverage even with an elite pass rusher helping out. I think both teams go up and down the field in what should be a shootout.

Extra Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Minnesota Vikings First Half Team Total Over 12.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

The Vikings are 5-0 over this team total this season, averaging 17.2 points before halftime. That’s good for second-best in the NFL, and I think it powers them past this number again. With a bye week to scheme up the best ways to attack this struggling Lions secondary, Kevin O’Connell should turn the offense loose for multiple scoring drives before half.

NFL (1 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 @ Cleveland Browns (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

If Joe Burrow continues his struggles against Cleveland today that have plagued his career, then this Bengals team is truly cooked. Surprisingly, Burrow only has one win against the Browns, but when your counterpart on the other sideline is Deshaun Watson, it’s time to break that curse.

The Browns are the only team to not put 20 points on the board or have a 200-yard passer, and they’re the only team to not do that through six weeks of a season since the 1999……Cleveland Browns. This team is in a full tailspin, and only looked like they put up a fight last week because of a 10-point swing on a blocked field goal. Road divisional game or not, I’m laying the points here.

NFL (1 Unit) Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I think reality has finally settled in for Seattle after their 3-0 start, which was fueled by facing a who’s-who of bad quarterbacks. They don’t get that luxury today as Kirk Cousins has finally gelled with the rest of the Atlanta offense. Historically speaking, teams that start like Seattle has, with 3 straight losses following a 3-0 start, are just 5-11-1 ATS in their seventh game. The Seahawks are also fresh off a game with San Francisco which typically takes it out of most teams, and are flying cross-country for the early kickoff. This might well be a shootout given how much Seattle throws the ball, but I’ll take the home team with a better offense in that scenario.

NFL (1 Unit) Miami Dolphins/Indianapolis Colts Under 43.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Speaking of bad quarterback play, we’re a long way from seeing Marino versus Manning with these franchises facing off today. Anthony Richardson is set to return for the Colts, and that is nothing but a downgrade to that offense, a unit that is already missing Jonathan Taylor and could be without key receivers as well. Until Richardson starts completing passes that high school QB’s make regularly, I’m out on the potential for the Colts to light up any scoreboards.

And even though Miami had a bye to figure some things out, Mike McDaniel simply needs Tua at quarterback to be successful. McDaniel’s Dolphins have put up 21 or fewer in 7 of the 8 games Tua has missed, and that should continue here. I see both teams keeping this one on the ground, and that should drain the clock enough to hold it under the total.

NFL (1 Unit) Carolina Panthers/Washington Commanders First Half Over 25.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 3:05 PM CT on CBS

I think the Commanders come out firing in this one after their loss last week, and there’s no better team to beat up on early than Carolina. Unfortunately for the Panthers, switching to Andy Dalton solves nothing on defense and they’ve been especially vulnerable in the first half of games, allowing a league-high 21.2 points on average. So there’s a real possibility Washington approaches this total on their own, but Dalton’s presence is certainly a boost to the offense so they should continue to find success against a defense that’s rated even worse than theirs. I have some concern about a blowout causing this game to slow down late, so I’ll focus on the first half here for plenty of scoring.

NFL (1 Unit) Kansas City Chiefs/San Francisco 49ers Over 47.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on FOX

This will almost certainly be a tight game, since that’s what the spread is telling us and that’s what always seems to happen when Patrick Mahomes is an underdog. So that tells me we’re going to see a back-and-forth affair with plenty of passing, which really has the look of an over environment. Both teams have big questions marks at the running back spot, which makes it likely they’ll both lean on the pass today and help boost scoring. With two of the elite play-callers squaring off, and Andy Reid having the benefit of a bye week, both offenses should be efficient and effective. I see both teams getting into the 20’s here, and that makes it easy to reach a total that’s actually kind of moderate for a matchup like this.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Devon Achane Alt Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (+105)

0.25 Unit – Devon Achane Alt Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (+170)

0.25 Unit – Devon Achane Alt Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (+255)

0.25 Unit – Devon Achane Alt Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (+390)

0.5 Unit – Drake London Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Kirk Cousins Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – Geno Smith Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kenneth Walker Over 97.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Christian Watson Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Justin Jefferson Over 92.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – David Montgomery Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – AmonRa St Brown Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Tony Pollard Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Calvin Ridley Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)

1 Unit – Chuba Hubbard Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Austin Ekeler Over 48.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Andy Dalton Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

1 Unit – Brock Bowers Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 91.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Travis Kelce Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Deebo Samuel Over 71.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Najee Harris Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +81.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.