Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/23 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers -4.5 @ Detroit Pistons (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FDS-DET

I’m really struggling to see what Detroit did to get better for this season. While I don’t think we’ll see another epic losing streak out of them like last year, I do see them starting 0-1 tonight. Let’s not forget that the Pacers went to the East finals last season with Tyrese Haliburton essentially hobbled for most of the postseason.

This team is set to have an offense that is top-3 in efficiency at the worst, and the Pistons are not a squad that will be able to stop that or keep up. This is the kind of relatively short line, under the key number of 5, that I’ll be targeting all season against teams like Detroit who are in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Toronto Raptors Over 224.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on SportsNet

I’m pretty surprised by this total, but I think it’s a number that isn’t understanding how Cleveland will change this season. The Cavaliers are no longer looking to lock everyone down defensively, but instead have decided to push pace and outscore you with their dynamic guard duo of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.

They should be able to execute that style pretty easily against a Toronto team that’s already injury-plagued and wants nothing to do with winning. Kelly Olynyk gave that away in the preseason, so it’s obvious that the Raptors are also in the Cooper Flagg hunt, and won’t be likely to put much effort in defensively here. I think the pace alone should be enough to get this game over a total that’s more in line with previous Cavalier teams, not this one.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bulls/New Orleans Pelicans Over 227 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Gulf Coast Sports

I think the addition of Dejounte Murray to this Pelicans team is a big get for them, and his offensive ability will allow New Orleans to play a more open style. They’ll probably need to considering they’re an undersized team now, so a perimeter-oriented approach should be coming. That will make two teams with that style of play for this matchup, as the Bulls have a ton of backcourt depth but are thin up front. I see this as being a game that goes up and down the court with a lot of free-flowing offense, and that should get it to the relatively lower total.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Suns -5 @ LA Clippers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

I think this is the year Phoenix lives up to a good amount of their potential, and it should start right away tonight. They have an offensive-minded head coach who will finally get them to take and make three’s, plus the addition of Tyus Jones should really help Devin Booker and Bradley Beal thrive off the ball. And tonight they’re facing a shell of what we think of as the Clippers, with Paul George gone and Kawhi Leonard still, to no one’s surprise, on the shelf. I just don’t think LA has the firepower to stay with what should be an elite offense, and the Suns should make a statement here in a primetime spot.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Jacksonville State Team Total Over 41.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2

The Jacksonville State offense has finally hit high gear, and it should shred another bad defense tonight. The Gamecocks have gone off for 44, 63, and 54 points the past 3 games behind dual-threat quarterback Tyler Huff finally getting going both on the ground and through the air. But Jacksonville is primarily a run-first team, and they’ll face a Middle Tennessee defense ranked 102nd in rushing yards allowed per game. The Blue Raiders are also getting scored on like crazy, ranking 122nd in points allowed and 109th in yards per point. If the Gamecocks get rolling downhill in this game it should get out of hand, and I think they actively look to run it up on a bad defense.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +79.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.