Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/24 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Minnesota Vikings Team Total Over 24.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

After a late flurry of points against the Lions on Sunday, this Vikings team is now 6-0 over their team total on the season. That record has been compiled against both good and bad defenses, but there’s really no doubt that they’ll face a bad one here.

The Rams are 27th in overall EPA/play on defense, along with 27th in defensive success rate, so they struggle to stop much of anything. The Vikings are likely to be looking for a bounce back statement after their first loss, and Kevin O’Connell will want to show up his old team, so look for Minnesota to stay perfect on getting over their team total.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Minnesota Vikings -0.5 First Quarter (+120; Odds via Caesars)

The return here is very attractive, and the hot start versus cold start difference can’t be much more drastic than it is between these squads. Once again, the Vikings are a perfect 6-0 against the first quarter spread, thanks to leading the NFL in both first quarter scoring and points allowed. Compare that to the Rams who are 31st in first quarter scoring and 26th in points allowed, and I’m willing to back the Vikings to stay perfect on this angle as well.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Syracuse/Pittsburgh Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

If these teams stick to their typical styles of play, this game will have fireworks. There should not be much running of the football in this game, as Syracuse ranks 132nd in rush play rate, while Pitt ranks 119th. These teams want to air it out, ranking 8th and 31st respectively in passing success, and they should have success against two secondaries that are very vulnerable.

The Orange defense ranks 114th in passing success allowed and 86th in PFF coverage grade, while the Panthers are 103rd and 73rd in those metrics. So two excellent quarterbacks, running up-tempo offenses focused on throwing the ball, should go up and down the field all game to get over this advantageous number.

NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on MNMT

What the Celtics did on Tuesday in hanging 74 points before halftime might have just been an appetizer. They should get whatever they want offensively to start this game against a Washington team that isn’t likely to suddenly care about defense. The Wizards were arguably the league’s worst defensive unit last season, and were dead last in first half points allowed, giving up 62.0 per game at home. They also struggled to guard the perimeter, so if the Celtics are anywhere near as ridiculously hot as they were from deep on Tuesday, they’ll score in waves tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +81.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.