College Football 25 simulation: Does the magic end for BYU in Orlando against UCF?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every BYU game against an FBS opponent this season.

BYU, thanks to a game-winning touchdown pass to Darius Lassiter with 10 seconds left last week against Oklahoma State, is still unbeaten.

The Cougars will take their 7-0 record — and 4-0 in Big 12 play — into UCF on Saturday, where BYU will have the opportunity to stay perfect going into their second bye week of the season.

Can the Cougars beat the Knights, who are on a four-game losing streak but nearly knocked off No. 10 Iowa State last week?

The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and UCF was able to give the Cougars their toughest test of the year.

How the simulation was set up

There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 12-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.

CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 80.

Injuries and depth chart movement were also implemented.

Wide receiver Kody Epps is still out for BYU, and with center Connor Pay still sidelined with a broken foot, Bruce Mitchell replaced him at center again for BYU.

The uniforms both teams will be wearing were also implemented into the simulation.

BYU is going with its road white jerseys with royal trim, along with royal helmets (with royal facemasks) and royal pants, with white trim.

UCF is going with an all-black jersey and pants look, along with a throwback gold UCF logo helmet, which was made available in the video game this week following an update for CFB 25.

How accurate was the simulation of BYU’s last game?

The actual score: BYU 38, Oklahoma State 35

College Football 25 simulation final score: BYU 41, Oklahoma State 33

My analysis: The simulation accurately predicted that the BYU-Oklahoma State game would be a high-scoring, back and forth battle.

Unlike real life, when the Cougars needed a 35-yard touchdown pass from Lassiter to pull out the win, BYU was the one nursing a late lead in the simulation and watched as the Cougars’ defense sealed the win.

Still, the video game was pretty close to predicting the score and margin of victory.

How did the simulation between BYU and UCF play out?

Final score: UCF 31, BYU 24

Key sequence: The Cougars trailed by seven with under six minutes to play and had a decent drive going as they neared midfield.

That’s when UCF forced its only turnover, as Mac McWilliams stepped in front of a Jake Retzlaff pass for the interception at the BYU 44.

Three plays later, UCF quarterback Jacurri Brown scored on a 6-yard QB keeper to make it 31-17 Knights.

There wasn’t enough time for BYU to make up its deficit after that.

How the simulation transpired: Both offenses started slow before picking up steam in the second half.

BYU took the opening drive deep into UCF territory before LJ Martin was stuffed for a loss on third and goal, and the Cougars’ Will Ferrin missed a chip-shot field goal.

Near the end of the first quarter, UCF running back RJ Harvey broke off a 38-yard run on third and 13 to move the ball into BYU territory, and he later scored in the first minute of the second quarter on a 1-yard run to make it 7-0 Knights.

Following a Cougars three and out after the touchdown, UCF was again driving the ball, but BYU edge rusher Isaiah Bagnah came up with an interception at the Cougars’ 37 to stop the drive.

The Cougars capitalized on the turnover, marching 59 yards in 10 plays — with Keanu Hill converting a couple third downs with catches — before Jake Retzlaff found Parker Kingston for a 6-yard touchdown pass with 5:24 until halftime to make it 7-7.

Neither team scored again before halftime, but there was plenty of offense in the second half.

UCF scored on its first three possessions after the half, including the opening drive of the third quarter, when the Knights made a 51-yard field goal to go up 10-7 following a time-consuming drive that ate up half of the quarter.

Following a BYU three and out, UCF again put together a drive — aided by a third-down pass that netted 20 yards and a 14-yard Harvey run to the BYU 1 — and Brown scored on a 1-yard keeper to make it 17-7 with 1:51 left in the third.

The Cougars responded quickly, though, as Kingston took a jet sweep on the ensuing possession and picked up 70 yards on the explosive play. That set up a Martin 12-yard touchdown run two plays later to make it 17-14.

UCF had three 20-plus yard passes on its next drive, including a 22-yard touchdown to Randy Pittman Jr., to move the lead back to double digits at 24-14 with 10:55 to play.

BYU had another answer — which included a 30-yard pass to Kingston on third and 9 that moved the Cougars into UCF territory — but BYU had to settle for a 48-yard Ferrin field goal to make it a one-score game again.

The Cougars had a chance to tie the game after forcing a punt on UCF’s next drive — Bagnah batted a pass down on third and 7 — but Retzlaff’s aforementioned interception on BYU’s ensuing possession changed the final minutes of the game.

After UCF took the 31-17 lead, the Cougars responded with a touchdown drive where Kingston — who else — caught a short pass and gained 31 yards to the UCF 4. Martin then scored his second touchdown of the day, a 1-yarder, on fourth and goal with 1:50 to play to make it 31-24.

The Cougars, who had all three timeouts available, kicked deep, but Harvey broke off two long runs, including a 39-yarder, as the Knights ran out the clock to pull the upset.

Star players: Retzlaff completed 63% of his passes for 423 yards, one touchdown and one interception. His two biggest targets were Kingston (10 catches for 209 yards and a touchdown) and Hill (12 catches for 137 yards).

The run game struggled to get going for BYU, as Martin had 27 yards on 12 carries, though he scored two touchdowns.

Defensively, Bagnah had a solid all-around game with five tackles, two tackles for loss, one sack and an interception.

Brown, more a running quarterback in real life, threw for 300 yards, one touchdown and an interception. He had minus-35 rushing yards — BYU sacked him six times — but two rushing touchdowns.

Harvey paced the UCF ground attack with 181 yards on a 6.9 per-carry average and scored one touchdown.

Pittman Jr. had six catches for 127 yards and one touchdown.

Key stats: Both teams were able to move the ball well, particularly in the second half, as UCF edged BYU in total yards, 455 to 438.

The Knights, though, had a much more effective running attack, rushing for 155 yards to just 15 for the Cougars.

UCF was better at extending drives as well, going 7 of 11 on third down while BYU was 5 of 11.

How realistic was the simulation?

My analysis: There should be a lot more yards picked up on the ground than through the air for both teams when the actual game is played — UCF is a run-heavy team, and Martin and Co. are establishing a strong ground attack for BYU.

Other than that, this seemed like a believable scenario that could play out in Orlando.