Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/27 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Philadelphia Eagles/Cincinnati Bengals Over 47 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Let’s not rush to give either of these teams credit for relatively solid defensive performances the past two weeks. Both teams have actually faced the same opponents, the Giants and Browns, which doesn’t take much explanation for why their defenses weren’t tested.

Despite both teams having good days defensively against those poor offenses, the Eagles still rank 28th in overall defensive EPA/play, while the Bengals are right next to them at 27th. The offenses for both teams are elite though, and mostly healthy, so I’ll take the over here on what I believe to be a deflated number thanks to the past couple weeks.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals -0.5 First Quarter (+120; Odds via BetMGM)

The scoring I’m looking for in this game out of Philly will have to come after the first quarter is done. That’s the way it’s gone all season as the Eagles are yet to score a single point in an opening quarter this year. They’re unsurprisingly 0-6 against the first quarter spread because of it, so I’ll count on Cincy to grab an early lead in this one.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns +8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

This is a fascinating case study in what not having to play with Deshaun Watson anymore can do for a football team’s psyche. I for one think it’s likely to be a big boost to the collective morale, and could push the Browns to finally play closer to their potential and remind us why they were a playoff team last year. I’m a big believer that this team is not as bad as they look, Watson was simply that terrible.

Look no further than the short-term boost Carolina got when they finally were rid of Bryce Young, and you could find a comp to Cleveland’s situation today. Going against Baltimore is scary, but big home dogs in divisional games are too good to pass up, so I’ll take the points here and hope for a rejuvenation.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Green Bay Packers First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I love picking off numbers that are outside the range of averages like this one is. What I mean is that Green Bay averages 14.9 first half points per game this season, with the important caveat that they started Malik Willis for two games.

On top of that, Jacksonville is 30th in the league for first half points allowed, giving up 15.0 per game. So I would have expected to see this team total come in a point or so higher, but since it didn’t I’ll count on Jordan Love to keep the gunslinger mentality and put up a couple of first half touchdowns today.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Denver Broncos First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on CBS

As bad as the Jaguars are defensively in first halves, Carolina is in a class all by themselves. The Panthers are dead last in the league, allowing an incredible 22.0 first half points per game. If that was a full-game number they’d have the 16th-best scoring defense in the NFL, so yeah, it’s ridiculously bad. The Panthers can’t tackle, can’t rush the passer, are incredibly thin all across the defense, and now have to play at altitude, so even a suspect Denver offense should take advantage.

This would be the second-highest first half output for the Broncos on the year, but they got some things going last week against a bad defense so hopefully they build on that here. The bottom line though is it’s just impossible to pass up an opportunity to fade the Carolina defense, so look for Denver to get rolling early today.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Dallas Cowboys +4.5 @ San Francisco 49ers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

This really feels like a pivotal game for the Cowboys season, coming off the bye and facing an old nemesis that has tormented them in recent years. But the big bad 49ers are not as scary as they should be, not with all the injuries affecting this team, and I think Dallas can take advantage. Brock Purdy tends to melt when he doesn’t have The Avengers of football occupying every skill position, and literally every big name is trending toward missing this game.

Even the Cowboys defense should be able to hold up against a collection of rookie wide receivers and no-name running backs. I also trust the Dallas offense to have figured out a few things during the bye week, getting Dak and CeeDee on the same page. Mike McCarthy is literally the best bet of any coach coming off extended rest in the past 20 years, including 13-5 ATS with Dallas, so I’ll take the points with a Cowboys team that’s still 3-0 on the road this year.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Hunter Henry Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Breece Hall Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Cade Otton Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jalen McMillan Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Rachaad White Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Evan Engram Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Evan Engram Over 5.5 Receptions (+115)

0.25 Unit – Evan Engram Anytime TD (+250)

0.5 Unit – Jordan Love Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+155)

0.75 Unit – Joe Mixon Over 95.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Cedric Tillman Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jamarr Chase Over 86.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Tee Higgins Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – AJ Brown Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – DeVonta Smith Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 98.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Ken Walker Over 93.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – JK Dobbins Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Terry McClaurin Under 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – DeAndre Swift Over 84.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Javonte Williams Over 84.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Bo Nix Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Brock Bowers Over 6.5 Receptions (+105)

0.5 Unit – Brock Bowers Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 22.5 Pass Completions (-110)

0.75 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.75 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Jake Ferguson Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +79.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.