Big Buccaneers Gambling Guide: Week Eight vs Falcons – Bucs Report

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a position of transition right now. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin injured, the once high flying passing attack is trying to forge a new identity. This makes for some instability in terms of betting.

It’s not clear who the focal point of the offense will become or if Baker Mayfield will be able to sustain his level of play. And with no clear established starter at running back, it’s hard to project who will emerge in terms of rushing props. Everything seems up in the air for the Bucs offense. 

However, there is still money to be made here. And although I might not make as many bets on this game until we get a better idea of what the offense will look like, there are still a few that I like. Here is my Big Bucs Gambling Guide for week eight.

Ko Kieft anytime touchdown +1400

I have no doubt that the Bucs are going to try to lean into their strong running game without Evans or Godwin. With the development of the offensive line and the emergence of Sean Tucker in the backfield, the Buccaneers have turned into one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL this year. This should become their new identity in the short term until Evans is healthy again.

Of course, the Falcons know this too. With unproven options at wide receiver there just isn’t the threat on the outside to draw a lot of attention from the defense. They will likely crowd the box and try to counter the Bucs running game.

I’m sure there will be some back and forth in this matchup, but when it comes to the red zone things will become even more congested. This would be the perfect time for a play action pass to an unlikely target. Ko Kieft is probably the last guy anyone is thinking about in the passing game and an excellent blocker in the Bucs running game. I like him as a sleeper touchdown scorer.

Jalen McMillan over 3.5 receptions

Even if the Buccaneers do go more run-heavy, they will obviously still be throwing the ball a decent amount. Who the will throw the ball to is essentially a guess at this point, but I believe we have some indication. My bet is that McMillan will be the go to wide receiver in the offense for now.

We saw him get a career high eight targets in the Monday night loss against the Falcons. Now he will move into his more natural slot position with Godwin out. This should maximize his ability.

Someone has to catch the ball in this offense. And while Rachaad White and Cade Otton will shoulder some of that, one of these receivers has to step up. At least to the tune of 4+ catches, I think McMillan will be that guy.

Tyler Allgeier under 37.5 rushing yards 

If there’s one nice thing I can say about KJ Britt it’s that he’s a thumper between the tackles. He’s both physical and a sound tackler (when you don’t ask him to run around) and can be solid in this role. Of course playing behind star defensive tackle Vita Vea helps with that.

In short, it’s not a good idea to run right into the teeth of the Bucs defense. They are strong up the middle and frankly there are better ways to attack the Buccaneers defense. Call it a silver lining of a defense that has been vulnerable in other ways.

This makes a thumper running back like Allgeier less effective. It’s part of why he only got 12 yards on 6 carries in the first game. I wouldn’t expect a significantly better performance from him this time.

Falcons -2.5

You can call this an emotional hedge on my part. But I think the Bucs are dealing with a lot of emotions following the loss of two of their leaders and a discouraging loss to the Ravens. I’m not sure the Bucs are mentally ready for the quick turnaround of another big game.

Even if they are, the Falcons might just be better than this version of the Bucs. Tampa has coverage issues in the middle of their defense and are trying to create a new offensive identity.  Honestly, it’s a good time to play the Buccaneers.

This is a classic “I need to see it” spot with the Bucs. I know they have the talent to win this game, but there are a lot of factors working against them. I hate to say it, but the Falcons covering is the smart bet here.

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