Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/28 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL/NBA (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

NY Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers PK: 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

This is not going to be your standard teaser, I’ll admit that, but I really want to be able to get Pittsburgh down to just a pick-em tonight. The Steelers simply dominate on Monday nights at home going back a long time, with a record of 21-1 straight up in their past 22 MNF home games. The opposite of that is Daniel Jones, who must have an early bedtime because he’s just 1-15 straight up in primetime games for his career.

The only hope for the Giants tonight is to chuck it up to Malik Nabers as much as possible to go after an underperforming Steelers pass defense. But with the offensive line being a mess for New York, I think the Pittsburgh pass rush eats tonight and helps carry the Steelers to another win.

Chicago Bulls/Memphis Grizzlies Over 228: 7:00 PM CT on Chicago SportsNet

This is the unusual leg of this teaser, but one I’m liking nonetheless. These teams should continue to get up and down the floor like they have in their first few games, as the Bulls are playing an up-tempo perimeter-oriented style, while Memphis is making up for lost time missing Ja Morant last season. The Bulls and Grizzlies are a combined 5-1 to the over this season, including 5-1 over this adjusted total. With Chicago giving up 119.7 PPG so far and Memphis scoring 119.3, that looks like a recipe to get over an advantageous number and close this non-traditional teaser.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Boston Celtics First Quarter Over 58 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBATV

I expect the Celtics to be the driving force that gets this first quarter rolling, as they have been all gas no brakes to start all three of their games this season. As a result of them being on fire and pushing pace, Boston’s first quarters so far have seen 67, 65, and 73 points, with the Celtics crossing the 40-point threshold twice. They might do it again here, at home where they typically are on fire to start, and facing an East rival who is on a back-to-back.

Milwaukee hasn’t been great at defending the three which is Boston’s entire identity, so they’ll give up points here to be sure. But with Giannis Antetokounmpo they have the ability to attack inside where the Celtics are usually content to allow points without Porzingis available yet, so they’ll score as well. I think that adds up to early fireworks in this national TV game.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 61.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars)

The scoring barrages from Boston don’t just dry up after the first quarter, as they’ve been piling up the first half points as well. The Celtics are now 3-0 over this first half team total, with tallies of 74, 64, and 73 so far. Boston has the rest advantage here and should look to run it up early, which was their m.o. last season, so that should get them over this surprisingly low number by halftime.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Wizards/Atlanta Hawks Over 234 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on MNMT

I love it when two teams who don’t care about defense get together. I don’t know that any coach could get this collection of Washington players to play more than a couple minutes of defense before they got sick of it, and it’s showed already this season with them allowing 124.7 PPG. Atlanta won’t do it either, but that actually doesn’t bother Quin Snyder one bit, so the Hawks are now allowing 121.3 PPG and haven’t really played any explosive offenses. Atlanta is also on a back-to-back with travel here, so they’ll be even less interested in putting in effort on defense. I see this as a mid-day pickup game at your local Lifetime Fitness, going up and down the floor all night to cash this high over.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +84.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.