Silver (XAG) Forecast: Jobs & GDP Data in Focus as Silver Nears Key Resistance

U.S. Jobs and GDP Data Could Set Silver’s Path

This week, silver traders are highly attuned to upcoming U.S. economic data releases, especially employment figures and GDP numbers. These data points could heavily influence Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar—two key drivers of silver price movements. The October ADP private payrolls report and preliminary Q3 GDP data are both scheduled for release Wednesday morning, with the broader October jobs report due Friday. Strong labor or GDP data could support higher yields, pressuring silver prices, while weaker-than-expected numbers could have the opposite effect.

Treasury Yields Slip as Investors Anticipate Key Economic Indicators

On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury yields softened, reflecting a cautious tone among investors as they await the economic data. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped more than 4 basis points to 4.232%, following a recent peak above 4.3%, its highest level since July. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield edged down over 2 basis points to 4.094%. Lower yields typically support silver prices by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, while higher yields can act as a headwind.

Rate Cut Expectations Build as Fed Decision Looms

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows traders are increasingly betting on a quarter-point rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed last cut rates by 50 basis points in September, joining a broader trend of easing policies among global central banks. With the Fed currently in a blackout period ahead of its November 6–7 meeting, it has refrained from issuing statements that could sway markets based on this week’s data. If economic indicators suggest slowing growth, the likelihood of a rate cut could strengthen, potentially supporting silver prices.

Short-Term Market Forecast

Silver’s near-term direction hinges on this week’s U.S. economic data, particularly jobs and GDP figures, as well as any indications of a Fed rate cut. A softer dollar and easing Treasury yields would likely bolster silver prices, keeping the uptrend intact. However, stronger-than-expected data could challenge silver’s resilience, especially if it drives yields higher. For now, silver’s ability to break above $34.35 will be critical to sustaining upward momentum, while a decline below $33.08 could signal near-term bearish pressure.