Changing jobs is becoming ‘less profitable,’ limiting worker turnover

American workers are no longer seeing large pay bumps when jumping from job to job as activity in the labor market continues to cool.

New data from ADP released Wednesday showed that the median year-over-year pay increase for job switchers fell to 6.2% in October, well off its pandemic recovery peak of 16.4%. The gap between pay gains for job changers and those of job stayers, which grew at a 4.6% pace in October, is now at its lowest level since ADP began tracking the data in October 2019.

The difference between job changer wage growth and job stayer wage growth peaked at 9% during the labor market rebound of 2022, per ADP. Now that difference sits at just 1.5%.

“It means that it’s less profitable for the worker to switch jobs,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.

Richardson noted that the decline in pay gains for job changers helps explain why the labor market has been recently defined by low turnover. Data out Tuesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings fell to their lowest level since January 2021 during the month of September. Meanwhile, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, fell to 1.9% in September, down from a revised 2% in August. This marked the lowest quits rate since June 2020.

That data followed up anecdotal evidence from the Fed’s October Beige Book.

“Many Districts reported low worker turnover, and layoffs reportedly remained limited,” the report said. “Demand for workers eased somewhat, with hiring focused primarily on replacement rather than growth.”

At large, economists have argued that lower turnover isn’t necessarily an ominous sign for the labor market as long as layoffs remain low. There have been other signs of a labor market that’s still steading but not slowing too.

Also out on Wednesday, fresh data from ADP showed the private sector added 233,000 jobs in October, far more than economists’ estimates of 111,000 — and significantly higher than the 159,000 jobs added in September. September’s number of job additions was revised up from a prior reading of 143,000.

The next test for the labor market will come on Friday with the October jobs report. Consensus expects the US economy added 110,000 jobs in October, a move lower from the 254,000 jobs added in September. Economists expect recent hurricanes and worker strikes could weigh on job growth for the month.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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