Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate for Week 9 of 2024 season

I recently spoke to a college class and a lot of it was advice on getting a job in the sports industry. And my talk was much of what I’ve written about before. A few times over the years I have written a very long, but, in my humble opinion, very useful column. My 10 best pieces of advice for getting the career you want. And as I spoke to these students, quoting liberally from what you are about to read, it was clear they had not heard or considered a lot of what I was saying. And they all sent very kind notes and comments afterward, thanking me.

So, it occurred to me that it might be time to bring it back once again. I’ve updated it a little and am running it again. By the way, that’s my first piece of career advice, especially when it comes to producing any kind of content, be it for sports, for the public or even a presentation at work: Always be honest. Audiences will forgive almost anything, as long as you are honest with them. So yeah, I’ve written a version of this column multiple times before.

Here we go.

My 10 best pieces of advice for getting the career you want

1. Learn to communicate

This was the biggest piece of advice my father ever gave me, and it’s the most crucial advice I can give you. My dad’s point was simple. Nothing happens if you can’t communicate. Let’s say you found the cure for cancer. Awesome. It does no one any good if you can’t communicate how to do it. When it comes to my career, I’ve been playing fantasy sports since I was 14. And doing professional analysis for the public since 1999. I’m not anywhere close to perfect, but I tend to get a lot more right than wrong and have done so over many, many years. But one of the big reasons I’ve got the career I have is the communication part. My high school job was as a local rock ‘n’ roll DJ. In college, I did radio, student TV and wrote a humor column for the school paper. And when I graduated and moved straight to L.A., I took a few years of improv classes. The idea wasn’t about acting. I just wanted to get comfortable speaking in front of strangers and being able to handle things I wasn’t prepared for. It took work, but I got to a point where I felt I could express how I felt about a player or team and be reasonably entertaining while doing so — even if you disagreed with my take.

Also understand that communication takes many forms. I’m definitely better at some than others, but I believe one of the things NBC Sports values about me is that I can write a 5,000-word column, do an hour-long daily podcast/YouTube/Peacock show, a two-hour live TV show on Sunday mornings, a 90-second hit on Football Night in America, an eight-minute radio segment, social posts appropriate for X/Twitter, Instagram/Threads, as well as a 60-second TikTok or LinkedIn post. I have varying levels of ability for each form of communication, but I’m at least reasonably competent in all of them.

That’s for my field, especially given how the media landscape is constantly changing, but it’s the same for ANY industry. More than any other piece of advice you read here; you MUST be able to communicate.

2. Get good

I get so many questions like, “How do I get an agent? How do I get to NBC or any other major company? How do I make this a career? How do I GET MY DREAM JOB? ” And the simple but annoying answer is … get good. Just get good at whatever you’re passionate about. I swear, whether it’s NBC or even Fantasy Life, we are ALWAYS looking for talented people who can make us better. So is every other company in the universe. I swear. There’s no conspiracy to keep talented folks out. Get good, and we’ll find you. Promise.

So, that means doing your craft, whatever it is, however you can. For my industry, that means writing for a small website for free. Or starting a blog. Or a podcast. Or a YouTube channel. Whatever translates best to what you want to do. Don’t worry about whether anyone is reading/watching/listening. Just get good. I’m a better writer today than I was two years ago. I was better then than I was three years before that. Stuff I wrote 10 years ago makes me cringe. It’s just reps, man. I’m a big believer in Malcolm Gladwell’s 10,000-hour rule (look it up). Whatever you want to do, start doing it, somehow, someway. And then do it again. And again. And again. If you stick with it, take feedback, keep honing your craft, stay with it and don’t bail, you WILL get good. And then you’ll have a lot of options.

3. Do what you can control

When I started out, I had no idea whether my analysis/approach/writing/persona/etc. was any good. I’m sure there were people who could do a deeper statistical dive than I could, who had played the game and could break down film better than I could, who had more insider contacts than I did. I couldn’t do anything about that. I knew the only thing I could control was my work ethic. So, I decided I just had to outwork them.

When I graduated and was first trying to break into show business, I knew absolutely no one. No nepo baby here. So, I don’t want to hear it from folks who say they want to break into whatever industry, but they don’t have any connections. If I can do it, so can anyone else.

Here’s what I did:

I decided my first job was getting a job. Every day I scoured for jobs I could apply for. I applied for five a day, no matter what. I tailored my résumé and cover letter for each job. That was my morning each day. Then in the afternoon I’d call or email to see if they’d gotten it, could they look for it if not, could I get a meeting? I cold-emailed people I admired, alumni from my school, every family member I could think of. “Do you know anyone you’d feel comfortable introducing me to?” No stone unturned — I had to outwork everyone.

When I speak to college students, I talk about two traits: “brand aware” and “brand trust.” Look, every person has a “brand.” You’ve just been arrested. You have only one call. Which of your friends do you call? Okay, you’ve just won an all-expenses-paid first-class trip to Vegas, but you have to leave tonight. Which of your friends do you call? I bet you had immediate answers for both, and I bet they weren’t the same person. We all have “brands” — how others perceive us.

When you are starting out, you are working on “brand aware.” To pay the bills after I graduated, I worked for minimum wage at FAO Schwartz, the famous toy store. At the store, they sold this toy gun that shot bubbles. So, whenever I got a show biz interview, I brought one of these toy guns and offered it as a gift at the end as a thank you for the interview. I’d show them how to work it. It was a fun toy. As they looked at me weird, I’d say, “Hey, I’m sure you’re interviewing a ton of people for this job. I’m trying to stand out. I bet you’ll remember the guy who brought a bubble gun.” They would smile and nod. And sure enough, when I’d call to check back in, they all took the call and remembered me. “Brand aware.” Ultimately, my first real job came from bubble gun No. 5.

4. You get one chance

Most people are nice and remember what it was like when they were starting out. Most people are willing to help out. ONCE. There are SO many people who want to get into … well, many different fields, especially sports. So, if you aren’t rock solid and buttoned up when you meet someone who could help, you’re done. There are too many other options and too little time to waste. Once, when my writing partner and I were trying to break into sitcom writing, we got a meeting with the late, great Sam Simon, executive producer of “The Simpsons.” He offered to read one script of ours but warned us not to send it to him until we were ready. “I get a lot of scripts. I promise to read one but only one. So don’t send it until it’s great,” Sam said.

We were like, yeah, yeah, I’m sure we’re ready, and we sent him the very first one we wrote, a sample script for “The Simpsons”! And sure enough, as promised, he read it. And he passed. As he absolutely should have. When we got more experience and looked back at that script it wasn’t even close to being good enough. We didn’t actually get a writing job until our eighth script, which is when, if I am being honest, was when we got good. And sure enough, when we were finally ready, we got another shot and it was easy to capitalize on it. When you get your one at-bat, don’t strike out, but don’t step up to the plate until you’re ready.

Also, when you get that one shot, make it easy for someone to help you. Man, this is so important. I’m gonna repeat it. MAKE IT EASY FOR SOMEONE TO HELP YOU. I remember one time a family friend asked me talk to his college age daughter. Sure. We set a time. She didn’t show up to the Zoom meeting. She emailed the next day saying she had forgotten the meeting and wanting to re-schedule. She wondered why I didn’t send a reminder the day of the meeting or email her when it was clear she wasn’t showing up? So, wait, now it’s MY job to try and track you down so I can give you advice to try to help you out? Slap face emoji.

I can’t tell you how many advice calls I’ve had with young people who are like “So how did you get this job?” That’s a story that has been told many, many times, on many podcasts, columns and in my book. When someone asks me that I can immediately tell they have done zero research on me. And I write them off. Not because I need my ego fed, but because it shows me, they’ve done zero research to prepare for this meeting. If they can’t take the time to work hard to try and get a job, why do I think they will work hard and do research for my show? Why would I advocate for them to my contacts? It is SO competitive out there. There is no room for a so-so effort.

When I was trying to get a job in sports and was able to finagle a meeting, I always had clips of my writing, copies of the little TV spots I had done, a résumé, etc., to hand out in case they asked. And I had done research on them and their company and could ask specific questions about them and their company. I came fully prepared for anything that could potentially come up in the meeting to improve my chances that this wouldn’t be the only meeting.

Whatever you can do, when you get that one shot, be prepared, and make it super easy for someone to help you.

5. Play the hand you’re dealt

When I was starting out in show business, I didn’t have any famous or powerful relatives or friends and I wasn’t so good looking that people wanted to put me on TV just because I was attractive. So, I tried to think about what I DID have. Well… I went to Syracuse. So, I reached out to every single Syracuse alumni I could find. “Hey, I know you’re a Syracuse grad. Well, I’m a ‘Cuse grad too, class of ’92. Would you be willing to spend 20 minutes with me so I can ask some advice? Go Orange!” Not everyone said yes, but some did. So, I started making contacts.

When I tried to break into fantasy sports, my one card was my Hollywood career. So, my TV sitcom agent was able to finagle a meeting for me with the NBA to pitch them on a fantasy basketball show, and the NBA ended up hiring me for two years off that meeting. Everyone has strengths and weaknesses. Focus on your strengths and don’t try to be something you’re not. As an analyst, I’m good with stats, but I’m not Nate Silver. I’m good at watching film, but I’m not Chris Simms. I’ve got good sources around the league, but I’m not Mike Florio.

So, I focused on what I do well, which is taking what could be dry and sometimes complex data, film study, team sources and research and condensing it, making it easily understood, and most of all, making the whole experience entertaining. And if you’re reading this, I’d say I’m doing a damn good job. We’re 1,700 words into a fantasy football article and I have yet to mention a player.

6. Get in the door/get good at one thing

The most important thing is just to get in the door at wherever you want to work. I’ve told this story before, but the first time I got a chance to be on national radio, instead of calling in like everyone else, I offered to drive to the studio to do my five minutes in person. They thought it was weird, but OK. I did it just so I could meet them face to face. Because once you are in front of someone, you are a living, breathing thing. Not some email or text that needs to be returned, like a million others. Sweep the floors, get lunch, intern, whatever it takes to be where the action is, and get face time. And once there, make yourself invaluable. Figure out what would make your boss’ life easier and do that. Really well. When starting out, get good at just one thing. Focus on that initially. I got good at writing TV scripts. Just that. But that got me a chance to write fantasy sports columns. And being good at that got me a chance to do TV, which got me a chance to do a podcast, to be on a weekly TV show, to eventually get my own show, to eventually be the first fantasy sports and sports betting analyst to be a regular cast member of an NFL pregame show. All because I got good at one thing.

7. Brand trust

I talked earlier about brand aware. The other piece of it is “brand trust.” You get one call to a friend to bail you out of jail. Whom do you call? I bet not all of your friends make the cut. That’s “brand trust.” We all have people in our life we know we can count on and others that we like and have fun with but … come on. You need to be the person at work who gets the jail call. Err … you know what I mean. With shrinking budgets and more scrutiny than ever on workplace behavior, you need strong “brand trust.” And that starts with how you carry yourself at all times, including on social media. When someone asks me for advice, I look up their social media account. Because before I put my name out there, I need to know whether I can trust this person. Social media is definitely a tricky place. But if you can’t be trusted on social media, how can a company trust you with their brand, or in my case, behind their microphone?

8. No journey is made alone

You’ll need help to get where you’re going, and once you’re there, give back. You never know how things will go. My first job in the industry was right here at Rotoworld in 1999. Starting around the same time as me was a guy who was writing some player blurbs and doing some part time coding for the website. We struck up a correspondence and friendship. That guy was Rick Cordella, now the President of NBC Sports. You never know, man. My long friendship with Rick was one of the big reasons I decided to come to NBC.

One thing that gives me great joy is, over the years, there have been a number of people in the fantasy sports industry, at places other than NBC or ESPN who have reached out for help/advice/connections with their career, and I always say yes, and it stays between us. It’s my pleasure. People like Matthew Pouliot and Rick Wolf were so good to me when I started, so it’s my duty to give back. And who knows? One day, one of these people may hire me for something. Just always be nice and helpful. That’s good advice for life as well.

9. Be original; it’s OK to fail

You don’t know how big of a ditch you can jump over until you fall in. To get anywhere good, you’re gonna need to be original and have your own way of thinking. I always felt, if you took the bylines off a bunch of fantasy columns, you couldn’t tell who wrote what. But whether you love or hate me, you don’t need my byline to know it’s a Matthew Berry article. Ultimately, it will take you time to find and hone your own voice/style, and the only way that happens is by trying different stuff and being OK if it fails. I’ve failed more times than I can count.

10. It’s a long and winding road

When I was in college, the job I have now didn’t even exist yet. Don’t expect success overnight and be open to where your journey takes you. And realize it’s not a race. We all get to where we are supposed to go at our own pace. So, buckle in. And trust me, if you want it bad enough and work hard enough, it WILL happen for you. Not immediately and possibly not in the way you imagine on Day 1, but it WILL happen. Go get ‘em.

Quick reminder to check out Fantasy Football Happy Hour wherever you get podcasts or watch us every weekday on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel or on Peacock. We also have Fantasy Football Pregame every Sunday morning from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET on Peacock, as well as the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.

By the way, if you need in-season trade advice, waiver help, lineup suggestions, DFS plays, smart sports bets and more (for NFL, college football and NBA!), be sure to check out FantasyLife.com.

Thanks as always to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. Let’s get to it.

Quarterbacks I Love in Week 9

Jayden Daniels at New York Giants

Look, I’ll be honest. My analysis this week might run shorter than normal. Because I just don’t have the energy. I am absolutely exhausted. Why? Because since approximately 7:36 p.m. ET last Sunday night, when Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary fell into the arms of Noah Brown, I have been screaming and running through the Connecticut countryside. In fact, I’m not even sure if I’m still in Connecticut. All I know is that I’m miles from home, cold, shirtless, and tired. Very tired. Why is a Mountie staring at me? No mind, because while I am completely spent, I’ll still do my best. Because even when it seems like all hope is lost, greatness can still happen. Jayden Daniels taught me that. Excuse me, I have to go run around and scream again. Alright, I’m back. So, hey, let’s talk about Jayden Daniels, shall we? In each of his last five healthy games, he has put up at least 280 yards of offense between running and passing. I love that consistency. I also love his matchup against a Giants team that has allowed three of the last four quarterbacks it faced to put up 19-plus fantasy points. By the way, all three of those quarterbacks got over 30% of their fantasy points against the Giants from rushing. The Giants also allow opposing QBs to complete more than 70% of their passes. All that makes Daniels my QB2 this week. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go take a nap in a pile of leaves.

Kirk Cousins vs. Dallas

Over the past four weeks, Dallas is allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 22.8 fantasy PPG and, over the same stretch, the Cowboys are allowing a league-high 9.2 yards per pass attempt. And since Week 5, Dallas is surrendering touchdown passes at the fourth-highest rate. (So much for the idea that the Cowboys are failing to see high-end production from the quarterback position, huh? They see it every week! Jerry Jones and Mike McCarthy are fully vindicated. Congrats, fellas.) Cowboys-Falcons has the highest game total of the week (52) and Atlanta has a top three implied team total, as well. So, I have Kirk Cousins up at QB6 this week.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Tampa Bay

I’ll admit, putting Patrick Mahomes on the Love List feels weird. It feels weird on one hand because, you know, he’s PATRICK MAHOMES. But then it also feels weird because he’s actually just QB24 on the season and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. Those are not the kind of facts that make anyone a set-it-and-forget-it player, no matter the name attached to them. But I do have Mahomes as a top 10 QB this week. Part of it is matchup. Over the past four weeks, Tampa Bay ranks 31st in pass defense, allowing an average of 307 passing yards per game. And in three of those games, the Bucs allowed four or more passing touchdowns. Yikes. The other part is that the Chiefs’ offense has started to look a little more Mahomesian, which is probably a word. From Weeks 1-4, Mahomes had just one game with 30-plus pass attempts. But now he has 38 or more pass attempts in two of his last three games. He also has five games in a row now with five or more rush attempts. That’s obviously great for his fantasy floor, while the fact that Tampa has allowed the second-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season is great for his ceiling. So yes, I’m high on Patrick Mahomes in fantasy this week. All is right with the world again.

Others receiving votes: Baltimore’s defense has allowed seven of the eight quarterbacks it faced this season to throw for at least 269 yards. Not good. But it does remind me of the famous Edgar Allan Poe poem “The Ravens’ Pass Defense,” which reads: “Shalst I be able to throw for 250 against your secondary so poor? / Quoth the Raven: Probably more.” This week the Ravens face Bo Nix, who has put up 20-plus fantasy points in three of his last four games and, since Week 3, is QB10 in PPG. … The Rams are allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt, second-most in the league, and they are giving up touchdown passes at the third-highest rate. No poems for this one, but I like Geno Smith against the Rams this week. Okay, fine. A poem: “It’s time to set your lineup, now go! / And at quarterback, consider Geno!” … Dating back to last season, in the 13 games in which he’s had both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in the lineup, Matthew Stafford is averaging 17.4 PPG. This week he has them both healthy against a Seahawks pass defense that, over the past four weeks, is ranked bottom 10. … In many sports, when a player returns from injury, they do a rehab stint in the minors. But the NFL doesn’t have minor leagues. Instead, it has the Carolina Panthers. Derek Carr will – wisely – return this week against the Panthers. Carolina has allowed multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season and, over the past four weeks, the Panthers are allowing the fifth-most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs (22.6).

Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 9

C.J. Stroud at New York Jets

This is a lousy matchup for C.J. Stroud, and that would be the case even if Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs were healthy. Only two quarterbacks so far this season – Josh Allen and Russell Wilson – have scored more than 12 fantasy points on the Jets, and they both did it in part thanks to a rushing touchdown. Teams facing the Jets this season are averaging the fourth-fewest pass attempts and the Jets allow touchdown passes at the fifth-lowest rate. This game also has the second lowest Over/Under of the week (42.5). And then there’s the fact that Stroud put up the worst passer rating of his career last season against these Jets. Not a lot to like here. But hey, I could be wrong. Maybe C.J. Stroud just needs to borrow some of Aaron Rodgers’ cayenne water and everything will turn out fine. Barring that, though, I have him outside my top 20 at the position.

Tua Tagovailoa at Buffalo

The Bills’ defense is allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy PPG to quarterbacks, is top 10 in a ton of categories, including TD rate, yards per pass attempt and passer rating against. Plus, the Bills are also one of just three teams allowing fewer than 10 yards per completion this season. Playing the Bills defense is a challenge for any quarterback this season. But playing the Bills defense has been a challenge for specifically Tua Tagovailoa every season. In four of his past five games against Buffalo, dating back to 2022, Tua has scored fewer than 14 fantasy points. I’m keeping him outside my top 15 at the position this week.

Running Backs I Love in Week 9

Alvin Kamara at Carolina

Alvin Kamara’s fantasy value ticks up even more with Derek Carr returning. In the five games Carr has started this season, Kamara is averaging 22.8 touches with a 21.5% target share – and that’s without mentioning the added offensive efficiency that Carr will bring. (Although, I guess I just mentioned it, huh?) Anyway, running backs who have seen 17-plus touches against the Panthers are averaging 18.2 PPG, and Carolina has allowed a running back to score a touchdown in every game so far this season. Look for Kamara to get into the end zone at least once on Sunday. He’s RB4 this week.

De’Von Achane at Buffalo

The entire Dolphins organization was happy to see Tua Tagovailoa back last week, but maybe no one more than De’Von Achane. In Tua’s three starts this season, Achane is averaging 137 scrimmage yards per game and 26.4 fantasy points. He also has a 20% target share in those games. Meanwhile, running backs this season who have seen a double-digit target share versus the Bills are averaging 18.4 PPG. I have Achane up at RB6 this week.

Aaron Jones vs. Indianapolis

Some teams spend their bye week resting up or going on vacation. Some dig into the film of upcoming opponents. It seems that the Vikings decided on their bye in Week 6 to give Aaron Jones the ball. Like, a lot. Pretty much all the time. Since their bye week, Jones has 95% of Minnesota’s running back touches, as well as a snap rate of 84%. That kind of usage will go a very long way against the Colts. And I mean that literally. Jones should be able to run a very long way against the Colts. So far this season, Indianapolis is allowing 160 scrimmage yards per game to backs. The Colts have also allowed 17 fantasy points or more to a running back in three of their past four games. Jones is a big Week 9 Love.

Others receiving votes: This week Tony Pollard is the one Titans player I really like. Well, that is, like from a fantasy perspective. NFL wise they have some work to do. This week, Pollard has a nice matchup against a Patriots defense that, over the past four weeks, has allowed the third-most PPG to running backs. Pollard, by the way, has 20-plus touches in three of his past four games. … The Giants and Jets have identical 2-6 records, but unlike the geriatric Jets, at least the Giants have some exciting rookies to build around in Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy. Last week Tracy got a season-high 80% of team rushes and this week – if he advances through concussion protocol – he will face a Washington team that surrenders 5.3 YPC to opposing backs. … The Raiders have allowed at least 13 fantasy points to a running back in every game this season. Next up to the Vegas buffet of fantasy points is Chase Brown who, over the past two games, has handled 71% of Cincinnati’s RB rushes. … In that same Bengals-Raiders game, I also like Alexander Mattison in deeper leagues. Since Zamir White returned to the lineup two weeks ago, Mattison has out-touched him 45-6. Mattison also has 20-plus receiving yards in six of his eight games this season.

Running Backs I Hate in Week 9

Javonte Williams at Baltimore

Javonte Williams has less than 50% of Denver’s team rush attempts in five of his past seven games. But hey, that’s fine, as long as Williams is efficient with the touches he receives, right? Indeed. Unfortunately, Williams is 43rd among qualified running backs this season in fantasy points per touch. Hmm. Okay. But Williams could still have a good game against a bad run defense, right? Correct again! Unfortunately, the Baltimore Ravens allow 3.2 YPC to running backs, second lowest in the league, and only one running back this season has seen more than 16 touches against them. And get this: Since the start of last season, Williams has just one game where he’s scored 12-plus fantasy points on fewer than 17 touches. But … in fairness … outside of usage, efficiency, matchup and recent history, things are looking up for Javonte Williams this week!

Rachaad White at Kansas City

It’s now four games in a row in which Rachaad White has seen a decline in his percentage of team rush attempts. Also, in the two games since he returned from injury, 89% of his fantasy points have come as a receiver thanks to three receiving scores. But now White takes on a Kansas City defense on Monday night that is very stingy against backs in the passing game. The Chiefs have yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a running back this season, and they also allow the fourth-lowest catch rate overall to the position. Oh, and the Bucs also have a bottom five implied team total this week. So, everything is terrible here. But I do have some good news. Great news, even. Monday Night Football is the last time all season that you’ll have your football-watching inundated with political ads.

Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby at Philadelphia

Travis Etienne is slated to return to action this week, which is bad news for every fantasy manager who has been enjoying Tank Bigsby’s run as Jacksonville’s feature back. But think about it this way, Bigsby managers, even if Etienne wasn’t returning this week, Bigsby would still probably be a Hate this week. See? Things would be bleak for you no matter the scenario, so have no regrets. Hooray! Get this: Over the past four weeks, Philadelphia is allowing the third-fewest PPG to running backs and only two backs all season have scored more than 12.5 fantasy points against the Eagles – and both of them did it by getting 18-plus touches. I don’t see either Jags running back getting that level of work in a game in which the Jags have a bottom five implied team total. By the way, in the five games Etienne and Bigsby played together this season, Etienne averaged 11.6 PPG and Bigsby just 8.6. That’s not enough production for them to be in most fantasy lineups, but it is exactly the kind of production that lands a player on the Hate List.

Pass catchers I Love in Week 9

Puka Nacua at Seattle

Puka Nacua returned to action last week and was targeted on 41% of his routes on the way to grabbing seven passes on nine targets for 106 yards. I’m almost surprised there weren’t balloons and a cake in the huddle since Matthew Stafford was clearly quite happy to have him back. The Seattle Seahawks, however, will not be happy to have Nacau back in town. Last season, Nacua had his NFL breakout game in Seattle in Week 1, catching 10 passes for 119 yards. This season, the Seahawks are allowing the fifth-most YAC per reception to wide receivers, while Nacua has seen 49% of his receiving yards come after the catch. Seattle has also allowed the sixth-most PPG to opposing wide receivers over the past four weeks. I have Nacua as a top 10 WR this week.

Chris Olave at Carolina

Need a late Halloween costume idea? Go as a target share monster. Football jersey, receiver gloves and then just take everyone else’s candy. (Note: for what it’s worth, all of my costume ideas incorporate taking everyone else’s candy.) Anyway, speaking of target monsters, in Chris Olave’s first full game last week without Rashid Shaheed in the lineup he received a target share of 37%. And that was with Spencer Rattler! In his four games this season with a target share of 25% or more, Olave is averaging 17.2 PPG. He’s in line to exceed his average this week against Carolina’s defense, especially with Derek Carr expected back. Wide receivers who have seen eight-plus targets against the Panthers this season are averaging 18.3 PPG. Olave makes my top 15 at the wide receiver position this week.

DeVonta Smith vs. Jacksonville

The Eagles had DeVonta Smith mic’d up during their game against the Bengals last week. I encourage you to listen to Smith’s reaction after he scored on a 45-yard touchdown pass. You know how much I like to talk about efficiency in fantasy, right? That clip features the most efficient usage of the F-word I have ever heard. Smith put both Fs in “efficient.” But let’s get back to the greatest F words of all: fantasy football. Smith should have many more opportunities for some celebratory profanity this week against a f***ing terrible Jaguars pass defense that ranks bottom five in receptions and yards allowed to wide receivers. Since Week 3, Jacksonville is tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to the slot and, since returning in Week 6, Smith has seen 54% of his targets come in the slot. Oh, and don’t forget, Smith has now finished as a top 25 WR in five of his six games this season. I see him making it six of seven this week.

Evan Engram at Philadelphia

Since returning from injury, Evan Engram has been targeted on a team-high 27% of his routes. That number may just keep climbing because – speaking of injuries – Jacksonville’s pass catching corps has acquired all of them. Christian Kirk is now out for the season, vacating a target share of 19.5% (with 85% of his targets coming in the slot). Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis are both on the injury report now, too. There’s almost no scenario where Engram doesn’t see a ton of targets this week and he has a track record of producing when Trevor Lawrence goes his way. Since the start of last season, Engram is averaging 15.2 PPG in games in which he gets seven-plus targets.

Others receiving notes: Baltimore has allowed the most receptions and yards on deep passes this season, while Courtland Sutton has received 47% of his targets on deep balls. And with Denver slated as nine-point underdogs, the Broncos should do plenty of passing in this one. … I’m old enough to remember when we wondered if Tank Dell would get enough targets in that crowded Texans offense to be fantasy viable. Now he’s the only wide receiver left. No, really. I’m not exaggerating. Dell is the only healthy WR on the Texans roster with more than 10 targets this season. By the way, in his nine career games with six-plus targets, Dell has put up 17 or more fantasy points in seven of them. … You can call him Josh Downs, but his fantasy stock is only going up. (Get it? The joke there is that his last name is Downs, but down is not the direction he is trendi- … okay, just wanted to make sure. It’s late and I’m still running around Canada half naked. Jaydennnnnn….) Anyways, in all three games Downs has played with Joe Flacco this year, he has a 27.5% target share and is averaging 19.2 PPG. Downs also gets a positive matchup this week against a Minnesota defense that ranks bottom five in receptions and yards given up to the slot. … In the three games that Jakobi Meyers has played this season without Davante Adams in the same uniform, he’s received a target share of 25%. Now he takes on a Bengals defense that, over the past four weeks, has allowed the sixth-most receptions per game to wide receivers. … The Bills traded for Amari Cooper two weeks ago and got themselves a No. 1 receiver. It just turns out that his name is Khalil Shakir. Over the past two weeks, Shakir has 16 catches for 172 yards on 17 targets. (Cooper has just seven targets over the same time span.) Shakir has a team-high 26.5% target share since Cooper joined the team and is averaging 16.7 PPG. He also has double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season. … It’s now three games in a row for Zach Ertz with double-digit fantasy points. He also has a target share of 20% on the season, seventh highest among tight ends. … Last week, Sam LaPorta had six receptions on six targets and a target share of 33%, all season highs. It is likely not a coincidence that his increase in volume came in Detroit’s first game without Jameson Williams in the lineup. I like LaPorta to keep things rolling this week against a Packers team that has allowed 12-plus fantasy points to a tight end in three of their past four games.

Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 9:

Calvin Ridley vs. New England

Calvin Ridley finally had his breakout game last week. Only he couldn’t even maintain a breakout game for an entire game, reeling in seven catches for 126 yards in the first two quarters … but managing just three grabs for 17 yards from then on. That game still accounted for more catches and yards than Ridley has in his previous five games COMBINED. This week, Ridley will likely be shadowed by Christian Gonzalez, who so far this season has held Ja’Marr Chase, Brandon Aiyuk, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson all under 70 receiving yards. By the way, if Will Levis starts this week, things are only likely to get worse. Ridley has caught just 33% of his targets from Levis this season. I have Ridley outside my top 30 at the position this week.

Diontae Johnson vs. Denver

You know, I get the sense the Ravens and Panthers didn’t consider the fantasy fallout of sending Diontae Johnson to Baltimore much at all when they hammered out their deal. How annoying. Johnson’s arrival in Baltimore helps the fantasy value of exactly none of the Ravens’ pass catchers, and will see him struggle to maintain his WR28 production. In fact, this week I have him down at WR47. Get this: Amari Cooper in his first game with the Bills ran just 12 routes. In DeAndre Hopkins’ first game last week with the Chiefs, he ran just 14. New acquisitions are rarely big parts of the game plan. And even if Johnson runs all the routes this week, he’ll be doing it against a Broncos defense that allows the fourth-fewest fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the second-fewest yards per reception to the position.

Jordan Addison vs. Indianapolis

Jordan Addison doesn’t have more than three receptions in a game all season and, dating back to Week 15 of the 2023 season, has caught four passes just once in eight games. He also has just one game this season with a 20% target share. And now T.J. Hockenson will be back in Minnesota’s lineup. Jordan Addison? More like Jordan Dropison! (That joke was for everyone who loved my Josh Downs wordplay earlier. So … me. Only me.) By the way, over the past four weeks, the Colts rank top 10 in fewest PPG allowed to wide receivers. All that puts Addison outside my top 40 receivers this week.

Tucker Kraft vs. Detroit

Tucker Kraft has three straight games with a target share below 13% and, if Malik Willis has to start for Green Bay this week, there will be less targets to be had regardless of share. Then there’s the matchup. Detroit is allowing the second-fewest PPG to tight ends this season and the Lions have allowed a TE to go for more than 35 yards on them just once all season. I mean, this matchup is so bad it could be a statue of Dwyane Wade. I have Kraft outside my top 12 tight ends this week.