Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Many starts and sits are obvious too, so we will instead focus on fringe options in this column, the ones that take real thought. Good luck with your Week 9 lineups!

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons

Start: Dak Prescott

The Cowboys can’t run, and Prescott gets a fast-paced matchup indoors with this week’s highest total (51.5 points). The Falcons rank last in sacks (six) and pressure rate this season, and Atlanta somehow didn’t record any hits/sacks on 51 Baker Mayfield dropbacks last week. Prescott should benefit from a clean pocket and will be passing frequently Sunday; Dallas’ banged-up defense is unlikely to stop Atlanta’s offense. Prescott is a top-10 QB this week.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

Start: Courtland Sutton

Sutton lost a fumble at the goal line last week, but he ranks top 15 in air yards share (36.8%) this season. He’s the WR16 in expected fantasy points, and Bo Nix is throwing downfield more lately. The Ravens are a pass-funnel defense that’s allowed just 55.0 RB rushing yards per game but the most fantasy points to outside receivers. Baltimore’s opponents have the league’s second-highest pass rate (66%) this season. Sutton is a top-25 WR in this fast-paced matchup.

Sit Javonte Williams, who’s scored in just one game all season and managed just 2.6 YPC against fantasy’s worst rush defense last week. The Ravens are ceding NFL lows in YPC (3.3) and rush attempts per game (21.3). Rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. has as many 100-yard rushing games as Williams does in his career.

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Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

Sit: Raheem Mostert

Mostert scored two short touchdowns last week and could continue to benefit from goal-line work, but he’s a risky fantasy start. He saw just 10 touches and is losing most passing down work to De’Von Achane, who’s been fantasy’s RB1 during games with Tua Tagovalioa this season. Jaylen Wright has impressed and continues to see more backfield work. The 32-year-old Mostert ranks bottom five in missed tackles forced per attempt and YAC per attempt this season.

Buffalo has allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs, but that’s due to yielding the most targets (8.3), catches (6.4) and receiving yards (54.3) to the position. Game script could pose a problem for Mostert with Miami entering as a six-point underdog. Moreover, the Dolphins were third in neutral pass rate during Tagovailoa’s return last week, and Miami has averaged the most pass plays per game (40!) during his three starts this year. Mostert deserves bench consideration.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Start: Chris Olave

Olave had 14 targets returning from injury last week, leading the league in WOPR against a Chargers secondary that hadn’t previously allowed any WR to record eight targets or 100 yards in any game this season. Olave saw a 37% target share and a 40.6% first-read target rate during his first game without Rashid Shaheed this season. Shaheed vacates the eighth-most air yards in the league, and New Orleans is extremely thin at WR with Bub Means and Cedric Wilson also injured.

Moreover, Derek Carr is expected back this week. He’s a significant upgrade over Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who posted completion percentages over expectation in the third and 10th percentiles last week. The Saints have a healthy projected point total (26.5) against a vulnerable Panthers defense yielding an NFL-high 17 touchdown passes. Carolina also has a league-low pressure rate, and Carr has been twice as likely to target Olave when not pressured. Olave has gotten 3.25 YPRR versus Cover 3, which the Panthers use at the league’s highest rate.

Olave is a top-12 WR this week.

Jalen Coker is a deep fantasy sleeper with Diontae Johnson traded, Adam Thielen out and Xavier Legette banged up.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals

Start: Jakobi Meyers & Chase Brown

Meyers has a full season’s pace for 96 catches and 147 targets in three games without Davante Adams this season. Meyers has a 32.8% first-read target rate in games without Adams – far higher than Brock Bowers’ 23.4%. Meyers has been the WR18 in fantasy points per game since Week 3 despite coming off two of the toughest matchups possible and playing through an ankle injury. Meyers returned to a full practice Thursday, and he’s a top-25 WR this week against a Bengals defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to his primary side.

Brown has averaged 15.8 opportunities over the last five games, and three of them have come against defenses that rank top eight in RB fantasy points allowed. He gets a much more favorable matchup Sunday, as Las Vegas has ceded the fourth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs this season. Cincinnati will likely be missing Tee Higgins again Sunday, yet the Bengals still have the second-highest implied team total (27.5 points).

Mike Gesicki also gets a boost if Higgins is out again.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns

Start: Ladd McConkey

McConkey ranks 16th in fantasy points per route run this season, and the Chargers’ dropback rate over expectation has gone from -5% before the bye up to +4% after. McConkey has impressed, and Los Angeles suddenly leads the league in early down pass rate over the last three weeks. Moreover, McConkey has gotten the second-highest YPRR (4.2!) against man coverage, which the Browns use at the league’s third-highest rate. Keep McConkey in fantasy lineups in a favorable-looking matchup.

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants

Start: Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Tracy Jr. suffered a concussion last week, but he’s “trending in the right direction” to play Sunday. The rookie finished as a top-five fantasy back in a tough matchup in Pittsburgh. He saw 23-of-29 RB opportunities, as he’s overtaken Devin Singletary as New York’s lead back. Tracy Jr. has averaged 5.2 YPC and is capable of contributing more as a receiver. Washington’s defense has played far better recently, but Tracy Jr. looks like a star who’s hard to keep out of fantasy lineups if he’s active.

New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans

Start: Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson saw a season-high 79% snap share and 23-of-28 RB opportunities last week. He’s finally healthy again, and Antonio Gibson is dealing with a toe injury. New England’s offense would improve should Drake Maye be able to start, but the Patriots would likely go run-heavy should they turn to Jacoby Brissett. Stevenson is dominating touches as a three-down back, and game script shouldn’t be an issue versus Tennessee.

Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals

Start: James Conner

Conner is leading the league in missed tackles forced per touch and is the only RB who’s seen 100% of his team’s carries inside the 10. Conner has seen his two highest snap shares over the last two games, and Arizona will likely rely on him heavily facing a Chicago defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles

Start: Evan Engram

Engram averaged 10.2 targets, 8.3 catches, 73.2 receiving yards and 0.7 TDs during six games without Christian Kirk last season. He was the TE1 over those final six weeks. Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis and both Jacksonville running backs are banged up, so Engram should see heavy volume Sunday. The Eagles aren’t an easy opponent, but Engram is well worth starting in fantasy leagues with Kirk out.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Sit: Jared Goff

Goff has a 12:1 TD:INT ratio over the last five games, but he’s averaged just 21.2 pass attempts. Goff doesn’t run, and Sunday will mark his first game outdoors all season; his YPA dropped from 7.9 to 7.0 during games outdoors last year. The Packers have limited QB fantasy production and may be extremely run-heavy (fewer plays, slower pace) with either Malik Willis or a hobbled Jordan Love starting at QB. Packers’ opponents have the league’s seventh-highest neutral run rate (47%), and the Lions have the third-highest run rate (47%), so volume should remain an issue.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Start: Matthew Stafford

Stafford’s YPA jumps from 7.0 to 7.9 with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field over the last two seasons, and he’s averaged four times as many touchdowns. The Rams led the NFL in yards per play by a wide margin last season when their skill position players were all healthy. Los Angeles has the highest neutral pass rate this year during the two games with Nacua and Kupp.

Stafford is due for further touchdown regression while ranking fifth in pass attempts inside the 10-yard line but just 22nd in TD passes, especially with his two star WRs back. However, Nacua left Thursday’s practice with a knee injury. He’s expected to be fine, but his status for this week needs monitoring. The Rams have a 24.5-point team total in this fast-paced matchup, so Stafford would be a top-10 QB if Nacua’s active.

Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings

Start: Josh Downs

Downs gets a major fantasy boost with the Colts switching to Joe Flacco. Downs ranks first in catchable targets per game (9.0) and fourth in yards per route run with Flacco this season. He’s also been fantasy’s WR5.

Downs is a legit route runner who’s also a Reception Perception favorite. He ranks 13th in ESPN’s Open Score despite returning from a high-ankle sprain earlier this season. Indy receivers are about to see improved intermediate accuracy and increased volume; the Colts have averaged 17 more passes during games Flacco has started this season. Downs gets a pass-funnel Vikings defense that’s allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers and 12 TD passes over the last four games.

I have Downs as a top-15 WR this week.

Flacco is just the QB21 in “expert consensus ranks” this week, but he’s my QB12. Flacco gets a prime pass-funnel matchup against a Vikings defense that’s faded badly since Week 3. Minnesota’s opponents have the league’s highest pass rate (67.3%) this season, and the Colts are loaded with weapons. Flacco is a viable fantasy start if needed this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sit: Baker Mayfield & Bucky Irving

Mayfield is due for touchdown regression and will be missing Chris Godwin and Mike Evans on Monday night. The Buccaneers have this week’s lowest implied team total (17.5 points) against a Chiefs defense with the third-highest pressure rate.

Irving is legit, but he’s in a timeshare and is playing through a toe injury that will affect him for the rest of the season. Tampa Bay is projected to score a league-low 17.5 points, and game script will be a problem with the Bucs near double-digit underdogs; Rachaad White is the team’s preferred passing down back. Moreover, Kansas City has ceded by far the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, with just one reaching 50 rushing yards (58). The Chiefs’ RB run defense ranks first in success rate (72.3%) and YPC (3.0) despite facing a tough schedule. Sit Irving this week.