Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/05 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Bethune-Cookman/Texas Tech Over 143.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Texas Tech enters the season getting very little national attention, but insiders know what this team is capable of. Analytics sites rank the Red Raiders as a top-20 team, and I think they play like it tonight against a terrible opponent. Tech will be able to get whatever they want in this game, both inside with Warren Washington, and outside with an excellent backcourt duo in Pop Isaacs and Joe Toussaint.

This was a very underrated offense last season once they found their footing, so against a BCU defense that was 235th in adjusted efficiency last year I think they run wild. A big blowout by Tech should create the conditions needed to get over this total that is too low by most metric site projections.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) New Orleans/Kansas St Over 146.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Kansas State brought in a lot of transfer talent this season that will help their offense, which probably won’t need all that much help in this matchup. A couple of excellent scorers at their positions, Dug McDaniel and Coleman Hawkins, should carry the Wildcats to a big night here against a New Orleans team with no interest in defense.

The Privateers finished last season ranked 352nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, and also bring to this matchup a very up-tempo style that will drive pace and fuel scoring. While New Orleans has often struggled offensively, I don’t have as much faith in the K-State defense as previous seasons. Plus, a blowout situation and continuously fast pace will cover up those issues, so I like this game to get over the total tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Central Arkansas/BYU Over 149.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

BYU is another team that isn’t getting enough love nationally, as the first season without Mark Pope at the helm introduces some uncertainty. But the Cougars are a talented team, with some excellent shooters as always, plus a frontcourt that will be tough for a smaller team like Central Arkansas to deal with.

I would expect BYU to score at will in this game, as Kevin Young looks to make his mark in Provo against a truly awful defense. Central Arkansas was a pitiful 347th in adjusted defensive efficiency last season, and importantly for facing BYU were 355th in opponent three-point percentage. With both teams wanting to play fairly up-tempo and the Cougars likely to splash plenty of three’s, I think this is another game that reaches the high total thanks to a blowout environment.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +75.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.