Latest on Tropical Storm Rafael: Warnings and Travel Changes

The storm system brewing in the Caribbean over the last few days has officially become a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Monday night declared Rafael a tropical storm, the latest named storm in a busy and brutal 2024 hurricane season.

As of Tuesday morning, the center of Rafael was about 80 miles south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, moving northwest at 13 mph. The storm was upgraded to tropical storm status on Monday and was producing maximum sustained winds up to 60 mph as of Tuesday morning.

The NHC expects “rapid intensification” over the next 36 hours. Rafael is expected to be near hurricane strength when it passes near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, then near western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday.

For now, the NHC expects Rafael to continue to travel northwest toward Louisiana, though that track could change over the next few days.

Watches and warnings

Here are the latest watches and warnings from the NHC:

• Hurricane Warning (hurricane conditions expected within 36 hours): Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.
• Tropical Storm Warning (tropical storm conditions expected): Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila.
• Tropical Storm Watch (tropical storm conditions possible within 48 hours): Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas; lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge; and the Dry Tortugas.

Airline waivers and airport closures

As of Tuesday morning, neither Delta Air Lines nor American Airlines have issued any waivers for Rafael. However, the following airlines have:

• Air Canada has a waiver for Kingston (KIN) and Montego Bay (MBJ) for travel on Nov. 5. Air Canada’s daily travel outlook.
• United Airlines has issued a waiver for travel through Havana (HAV) and Montego Bay. The waiver runs through Nov. 7, allowing rebooked flights through Nov. 12.
• WestJet has a waiver for travel through Varadero (VRA) starting on Nov. 6 and running through Nov. 7, with rebooked travel allowed within 60 days of the original departure date.

Two Caribbean airports have shuttered ahead of Rafael: Charles Kirkconnell International Airport (CYB) on Cayman Brac and Owen Roberts International Airport (GCM) on Grand Cayman. Both plan to reopen quickly once the storm passes.

Cruise ship changes

With the storm’s current position and expected path, several cruise ships are already altering course.

This includes four Royal Caribbean ships:

• Brilliance of the Seas (Nov. 2 sailing out of New Orleans) is skipping Grand Cayman and visiting Belize City instead.
• Freedom of the Seas (Nov. 3 sailing out of Fort Lauderdale) is reversing its original schedule, now visiting Labadee on Tuesday and George Town on Thursday.
• Radiance of the Seas (Nov. 2 sailing out of Tampa Bay) is switching to the Western Caribbean, changing stops from Bimini, Freeport, and Perfect Day at CocoCay to Cozumel, Roatan, Belize City, and Costa Maya.
• Vision of the Seas (Oct. 31 sailing out of Baltimore) is skipping the Bahamas and Perfect Day at CocoCay, spending more time in Bermuda, and stopping at Port Canaveral.

MSC Cruises is also adjusting its itinerary for MSC Seascape, which departed Miami on Nov. 2. The ship will no longer visit Falmouth or George Town, instead spending time in Costa Maya and Roatan. Guests with prebooked excursions for those stops are being reimbursed.

A spokesperson for Norwegian Cruise Line confirmed to Travel Market Report on Monday that there are no changes yet for any of its scheduled Caribbean itineraries.