What Can The World Expect From Trump 2.0?

During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump made big promises about what would be in store if he reclaimed the White House.

“With your support, we’ll bring back our nation’s strength, dominance, prosperity and pride,” Trump said two weeks before Election Day. “This will be America’s new golden age.”

Now that Trump has won a second term as president, what might be expected from his incoming administration?

The answer to that question depends a lot on who you ask. Trump’s supporters believe he will “make America great again,” at home and abroad. His detractors have warned that Trump will undermine democracy in the United States.

War And Peace

The way the United States exerts its influence around the world is likely to change.

Trump has said he could end Russia’s war in Ukraine “in 24 hours.” With Israel involved in a two-front war in the Middle East against Iranian-backed armed groups, Trump has called on Israel to “finish the job.”

Peter Skerry, professor of political science at Boston College, said he expects Trump to “push for some sort of settlement” between Moscow and Kyiv that he predicted will “mean big concessions on the part of Ukraine.”

What Trump will do regarding Israel is much less clear, Skerry says, but he said that “he’ll be extremely supportive of Israel” while at the same time trying to revive the Abraham Accords that aim for Arab-Israeli normalization.

China, with which Trump launched a trade war during his first term in office, is a wild card. Trump has pledged to introduce more steep tariffs on products made in China if Beijing were to “go into Taiwan.”

He has previously said he would not have to use U.S. military force to prevent a possible Chinese blockade of Taiwan due to his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Global Footprint

In his four years as president, Trump pushed for NATO members to meet their required levels of defense spending, goals that most have since met.

Trump also oversaw the U.S. withdrawal from the UN cultural body UNESCO, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia, the Iran nuclear deal worked out with world powers, the Paris Agreement on mitigating the effects of climate change, and withheld funding for the World Health Organization due to its response to the coronavirus outbreak.

The outgoing Biden administration made a point to restore U.S. influence in such agreements and institutions, but now many predict another reversal under Trump.

Skerry said Trump is a “single-minded, self-interested actor” who is focused on domestic issues. It would not be surprising to see Trump “get back on the track” of limiting Washington’s role in some global institutions, he said.

Naughton said that “Trump will want to go it alone more.” But he added that the U.S. Congress is unlikely “to go along” and will put up resistance.

Payback Time

Trump has frequently lashed out against his political adversaries, referring to them as the “enemy from within” and suggesting they could “very easily handled” by the military in the event of postelection chaos.

The comments led outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris, who ran and lost against Trump, to say just before the vote that Trump was “obsessed with revenge, consumed with grievance, and out for unchecked power.”

At home, the U.S. judicial system is one area where Trump is expected to clean house, in large part owing to multiple criminal cases related to his first term, including regarding alleged election interference and attempts to derail the transfer of power following his 2020 election loss.

Trump has also said that he would “absolutely” pardon his supporters imprisoned for their role in the January 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol in a failed attempt to disrupt the certification of Joe Biden’s victory.

More broadly, many predict Trump will use “Project 2025” — an initiative conceived by the right-wing Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington to “take down the deep state” — as a template for his policies.

Trump distanced himself from Project 2025 during his campaign, claiming he did not know who was behind it, but investigations have found that at least 140 people who worked in the previous Trump administration are involved.

“Trump likes to talk tough, but rarely follows through,” said Keith Naughton, co-founder of the U.S.-based public-affairs firm Silent Majority Strategies. “Any retribution will be haphazard and from staff members. I think there will be a lot of changes at the Department of Justice.”