New Microsoft Update Warning—400 Million Windows PC Owners Need To Pay

Microsoft has suddenly issued a new warning for Windows users who either can’t or won’t shift from Windows 10 to Windows 11. The free ride is over—the warning includes a stark reminder that to protect their PCs those users need to pay.

“Starting in October 2025,” the latest set of nag warns, “Microsoft will no longer provide free security updates for Windows 10.” There then seems to be a range of different ads that follow this universal security warning—some for Co-pilot PCs, some just pushing the upgrade process. “We’re reaching out to thank you for your loyalty to Windows,” the nag screen reassures, “and help prepare you for what’s next.”

There remain around 850 million Windows 10 users, with more than half of those reportedly using PCs that don’t meet the technical requirements to upgrade to Windows 11. As Arstechnica suggests, “these messages may be intended mostly for people using older PCs that can’t officially install the Windows 11 update.”

Whether it’s a case of can’t, won’t or just haven’t, Windows 10 holdouts can expect much more of this over the next eleven months. These latest warnings seem intended to hit users in the midst of other activities, perhaps the thinking being it’s easier and makes for a quieter life to just upgrade—if you can, of course.

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The clear issue here is that within the 400 million soon-to-be obsolete PCs that cannot make the TPM-compliant move to Windows 11, will be many users who can’t afford a new machine and perhaps are most likely to balk at the $30 Microsoft stipend to continue security support for a strictly one year only extension.

Let’s remember, there are also some 50 million Windows users who are not even on Windows 11 and are already well outside any support arrangement. As each Patch Tuesday comes and goes, the ice those users are treading gets ever thinner.

The good news is that the offset in some of the demand for new PCs in 2025 prompted by the support extension will likely make it a good year to go bargain or at least discount hunting. The PC industry seems to have having a softer than expected end to 2024, there could well be excess stock chasing a reduced buying pool.

And then there’s the landfill problem. Whether it’s October 2025 or October 2026, there’s a lot of tin that is going to be dumped somewhere with no realistic secondary market to chase given the lack of Windows update or upgrade paths. The advocacy group PIRG describes this as “the single largest surge in junked computers in history, with dire consequences for both consumers and the environment.”

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And so it still seems there might be further twists to this story for Windows 10’s loyal fanbase as October 2025 approaches. The latest figures on Windows 11 conversions—which are at least accelerating—and $30 support take-ups will determine the size of the problem and might then dictate the acuteness of any solution.

Meantime, whether it’s an upgrade or a support extension, just make sure you pick a side that keeps your PC worry free. The risks simply aren’t worth the savings.