Should you get a jump on holiday shopping this year?

The day after Thanksgiving — Black Friday — is typically the kickoff to the holiday shopping season. But a San Diego marketing expert thinks bargains can be found as early as this weekend because Turkey Day comes later than usual this year.

“We might see greater competition (among retailers) and you may see base discounts bump up into the 20% to 30% range, which will drive people into the door,” said Miro Copic, professor of marketing at San Diego State University.

Thanksgiving is celebrated on the fourth Thursday in November. This year, it falls late in the month (Nov. 28), which will reduce the time between Black Friday and Christmas by six days compared to a more typical shopping season.

“If people are looking at deals, some of the better ones will be this weekend” because of the compressed schedule, Copic said.

Regardless when consumers start, this shopping season looks to be a busy one.

The National Retail Federation predicts holiday spending will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to  2023. That equates to purchases in November and December totaling as much as $989 billion, which would amount to roughly $33 billion more than last year.

While the rate of inflation is cooling, it’s still impacting family budgets and Copic said consumers “are trying to be smart about stretching their dollars” this holiday season.

According to software company Salesforce Inc., about one-fifth of online purchases will be on “dupes,” shorthand for duplicates, that are less expensive alternatives to pricey brand-name clothing, handbags and other items. Sites based in China such as Temu and Shein specialize in selling lookalikes.