Bet On It: Legalized sports gambling measure may face recount in Missouri – TipRanks.com

Welcome to the latest edition of “Bet On It,” where The Fly looks at news and activity in the sports betting and iGaming space.

SECTOR NEWS: Wynn Resorts (WYNN) offered an update on the construction progress of its newest resort, Wynn Al Marjan Island, the first integrated resort in the United Arab Emirates. Wynn Al Marjan Island is located 50 minutes from the Dubai International Airport in the emirate of Ras Al Khaimah. Construction has proceeded as planned with 55% of the structural concrete now complete. . The concrete structure is complete up to the 26th floor of the main resort tower, with walls extending to the 29th floor. The construction team is completing one floor per week, working toward a topping off in December 2025. In the last 100 days, the resort tower grew by 44 meters, Wynn said.

Sportradar (SRAD) announced a multiyear agreement with Major League Baseball, or MLB, to offer sports performance analysis of amateur baseball prospects, through its Synergy Coaching and Scouting solution, to the league and its 30 Clubs. The company said this new partnership will revolutionize player talent scouting through Sportradar’s technology and highlights Sportradar’s commitment to delivering innovative and game-changing solutions to the league. Under the agreement, MLB and its 30 Clubs will gain access to a depth of player analysis and insights with event coverage expanding significantly, from 3,300 to more than 20,000 games – an over 600% increase. This includes college, international, professional partner leagues and leading amateur leagues, such as the MLB Draft League, the Appalachian League and MLB Develops events, and, for the first time, top high school events.

International Game (IGT) announced the expiration of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976, as amended, in connection with the previously announced transaction whereby IGT’s Gaming & Digital business and Everi Holdings (EVRI) will be simultaneously acquired by a newly formed holding company owned by funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global (APO). The expiration of the waiting period under the HSR Act satisfies an important condition necessary for the completion of the Proposed Transaction, which is expected to close by the end of the third quarter of 2025, and remains subject to other conditions and regulatory approvals.

Bally’s (BALY) announced that at its special meeting of stockholders held, its stockholders, including its unaffiliated stockholders, approved the adoption of its previously announced definitive merger agreement with The Queen Casino & Entertainment, a portfolio company majority-owned by the company’s largest stockholder, Standard General. At the special meeting, the company stockholders also approved, on a non-binding advisory basis, the compensation that may or will become payable by Bally’s to its named executive officers in connection with the transactions contemplated by the merger agreement. The merger agreement has been adopted by the affirmative vote of the holders of a majority of the outstanding shares of the company’s common stock as of the October 21 record date for the special meeting and the affirmative vote of the holders of a majority of the holders of the outstanding shares of the company’s common stock as of such record date, excluding those held by Standard General, Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI), Noel Hayden and certain executive officers and a director of the company.. The company, subject to the prior approval by the special committee, reserves the right to open one or more new rolling share election periods prior to the company effective time. Closing of the transactions contemplated by the merger agreement is anticipated to occur in the first half of 2025 and remain subject to the receipt of regulatory approvals and the satisfaction of other customary closing conditions.

Cisco (CSCO) and MGM Resorts (MGM) announced that the companies have signed a whole portfolio agreement “empowering MGM Resorts with the majority of Cisco’s software portfolio.” This includes cybersecurity, software defined networking, software defined-WAN, digital experience assurance, full-stack observability, data center and services. The agreement spans 5.5 years. “The agreement will enable the automation of MGM Resort’s network. This will pave the way for future location services and next-generation machine learning applications in the gaming and hospitality industry, unlocking new channels of guest engagement. Additionally, Cisco technology will ensure uptime and security-essential for the delivery of exceptional guest experiences in its 24/7 operations,” the companies said.

BEST OF THE REST: While the dominance of DraftKings (DKNG) and FanDuel (FLUT) in the online sports betting market is evident, interpreting the performance of smaller challengers remains complex, according to Truist. These challengers have limited and concentrated market shares, leading to an overemphasis on minor fluctuations in state data, often at the expense of examining the core mechanics of online sports betting performance, the firm told investors. To better understand this landscape, Truist leveraged insights from HoldCrunch, an analytics firm founded by former FanDuel VP Tom Johnson. HoldCrunch identifies three metrics to evaluate challenger success: price, net gaming revenue plus margins and handle share. The firm told investors in a research note that real, sustainable growth would require all three metrics to move positively and simultaneously, a benchmark that no challenger has achieved to date. Truist provided the following takeaways from the HoldCrunch data set:

• BetMGM and Entain (GMVHF) edged close to price competitiveness but remained outside the top tier. Despite increased promotional spending, the platform failed to deliver strong margins. Handle share rose, but HoldCrunch data attributes this growth to promotions rather than pricing or product improvements.
• Fanatics saw significant handle share growth, driven even more by promotions than BetMGM, according to HoldCrunch. However, Fanatics offered the least competitive prices and posted the lowest margins among its peers, underscoring a reliance on promotions over sustainable growth strategies, the firm said.
• Caesars (CZR) presents a different profile. It performed better on price competitiveness and net gaming revenue plus margins than BetMGM, factoring in promotions, but its handle share remains stagnant. This points to product deficiencies. While other platforms may share similar gaps, heavy promotional spending at BetMGM and Fanatics has obscured their product challenges. Caesars, with lower promo spend and more competitive pricing, reveals these shortcomings more clearly, Truist noted.
• ESPN Bet (PENN) shares similarities with Caesars. In Q3, its pricing was the most competitive in the industry, and its net gaming revenue plus margins were nearly on par with DraftKings. However, ESPN Bet’s market share remains small and stagnant. Like other challengers, its lack of growth suggests a significant need for product enhancements, according to the firm.

JAKE PAUL WIN PROVIDES MOMENTUM: For the week of November 11-17, Macquarie estimated a total sports betting market hold of 9.4%, assuming a 10% hold for NFL bets and 9% for other sports. During the previous week, New York reported an online sports betting hold of 10.5%, exceeding the normalized average of 9%. Following three consecutive weeks of above-average holds, the firm now projects that Q4 market hold will settle near the normalized average of 9%, reflecting a 50 basis points increase year-over-year. These positive trends align with a 20% rise in online gaming stock performance during November, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 4% gain, Macquarie told investors. Caesars and Rush Street Interactive (RSI) are expected to see the largest year-over-year hold expansions this quarter. In New York, handle growth remains steady at 16% year-over-year, while Illinois data for September indicates an uptick in parlays and same-game parlays, which now account for 30% of the handle. FanDuel led this growth, with parlays accounting for 40% of its handle, followed by ESPN Bet at 29% and DraftKings at 27%, contributing to month-over-month gains in gross gaming revenue market share. The firm added that Caesars also showed strong performance, with the second-largest annual improvement in GGR, reaching 21%. The online gaming sector remains a standout for two reasons, Macquarie contends. It is the only major gaming segment capable of achieving sustained double-digit growth irrespective of economic conditions and has consistently exceeded market expectations over the past two years. The firm projects North American online gaming revenue growth of 36% year-over-year in the third quarter and 23% in the fourth quarter, with estimated 2025 growth at 18% year-over-year. Additionally, Jake Paul’s win over Mike Tyson generated momentum for sportsbooks, driving engagement and betting activity, further boosting the market outlook, according to the firm.

POTENTIAL RECOUNT IN MISSOURI: The race has tightened for Missouri’s Amendment 2, which seeks to legalize sports gambling in the state, Eleanor Nash of The Kansas City Star reported. After election night, voters saw the measure narrowly leading, with sports betting ahead by just over 4,000 votes out of nearly 3M cast. However, provisional ballots are still being tallied, and the margin of victory continues to shrink, raising the possibility of a statewide recount. As of the evening of Wednesday, Nov. 20, the “yes” vote led by only 2,735 votes, a razor-thin margin of 0.09%. These numbers remain in flux, according to JoDonn Chaney, director of communications for the Missouri Secretary of State’s Office. Under Missouri law, a recount can be requested between Dec. 10 and Dec. 17 if the margin is less than 0.5%, or about 14,700 votes in this case. As of Nov. 20, the results for Amendment 2 fall squarely within that threshold.

ADDITIONAL ANALYST COMMENTARY: Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Flutter Entertainment with a Buy rating and $320 price target. The firm said that new player cohort analysis for FanDuel reveals why the firm sees upside to Flutter’s 2027 guidance. The transformation of U.S. earnings drives Flutter’s EBITDA to nearly double organically in just the next three years and then grows at a high-teens percentage thereafter, the analyst remarked. The firm added that it continues to see few stocks in Europe or the U.S. with over $40B in market cap and compounding EBITDA at over 20% CAGR which trade at this valuation.

Citi raised the firm’s price target on Sportradar (SRAD) to $20 from $18 and reiterated a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated the company’s model to reflect the Q3 results, currency rates, and its latest outlook.

Deutsche Bank upgraded Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $54, up from $49. Shares have been an underperformer in 2024 given the heightened sensitivity around interest rates, but the firm sees drivers of upside in shares that include a healthy pipeline post an active 2024; a well-positioned balance sheet, complemented with access to equity capital and limited potential near-term refinancing headwinds; healthy tenant coverage positions; and favorable relative valuation metrics.

Macquarie increased its price target on Gambling.com (GAMB) to $16 from $14 and maintained an Outperform rating on the shares post the “beat-and-raise” quarter. Gambling.com continues to grouped unfairly with other gambling affiliates facing headwinds specific to their underlying businesses, rather than an industry-wide issue, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says the company’s Q3 results reflected global market shares gains with strength in Europe, including the addition of the Freebets.com acquisition, and resiliency in North America against a tough compare.

PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES IN THE SPACE INCLUDE: Accel Entertainment (ACEL), Bally’s (BALY), Boyd Gaming (BYD), Caesars (CZR), Churchill Downs (CHDN), DraftKings (DKNG), Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), Gambling.com (GAMB), Gan Limited (GAN), Genius Sports (GENI), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), MGM Resorts (MGM), Penn Entertainment (PENN), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Super Group (SGHC) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN).