College Football Playoff picture 2024: Where Texas A&M, Ohio State tier among locks for 12-team bracket

Exit stage left, Alabama. After a flurry of upsets across college football, the Crimson Tide are now one of several previously secure teams on the outside of the College Football Playoff picture, joining Ole Miss and Colorado after disappointing performances on the road in conference play.

Heading into rivalry week, we’ve handicapped the playoff race by lock-tiers, based on information gathered through the selection committee’s first three polls, strength of schedule, eye test, quality wins and what’s on the horizon over the next two weekends of action prior to the final vote.

Conference championships won is a major data point for the selection committee and there’s a few teams who can leave no doubt by winning out and taking that hardware. There’s also a couple of programs — namely South Carolina and Clemson — who are streaking at the right time and are benefitting from various chaos scenarios playing out to the extreme.

Oregon: Bring out the cement blocks — the Ducks are in. Oregon has done all it can in the regular season as the nation’s top team for weeks. The Ducks could lose to Washington and suffer a loss to an elite opponent in the Big Ten Championship and would still be in.

Ohio State: The Buckeyes punched their ticket with Saturday’s impressive victory over previously unbeaten Indiana. That’s a pair of top-five wins this season and the lone loss coming in the final seconds at Oregon. The Buckeyes are clearly college football’s second-best team at this junction.

Texas: The quality wins aren’t there, but coupled with Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma and Florida‘s upset of Ole Miss, there are two fewer SEC teams Texas has to worry about in the final discussion. Even if the Longhorns lose at Texas A&M, they’re in based on their current ranking (No. 3). There aren’t enough spots to drop outside of the top 12.

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish just keeping blowing teams out. Notre Dame destroyed previously unbeaten Army in a matchup that was never competitive. Even if Notre Dame is upset by USC next week, snapping a nine-game winning streak, Marcus Freeman’s team has accomplished enough to secure lock status.

Selection committee chair Warde Manuel said last week his team holds Notre Dame in high regard. That opinion would not change if the Fighting Irish are clipped by the Trojans considering the body of work.

“I think the Irish since that loss have performed very well. Riley Leonard has come into his own,” Warde said on a conference call with media after the selection show. “He’s really a dynamic runner. They had a great opening win against Texas A&M. Really going into that Navy game, Navy was playing well, and then they really had a dominant performance there. 

“We’ve been impressed in how Notre Dame has recovered since that loss to NIU at home, and their performance moving forward we’ll continue to monitor and take a look at. But they’ve really come on strong since that loss.”

Penn State: As long the Nittany Lions handle Maryland, they’re getting a first-round home game in Happy Valley as an 11-1 finisher. Saturday’s narrow win over Minnesota was crucial, and now the padlock is within reach for James Franklin and his staff.

Miami: The Hurricanes will advance in Tuesday’s fourth CFP Rankings after Alabama and Indiana faltered in Week 13. If Miami beats Syracuse during rivalry week, Mario Cristobal’s squad moves into lock status inside the top 12 regardless of the following week’s result against SMU in the ACC Championship Game.

A victory over the Orange would be Miami’s 11th win of the season and trumps any potential nine-win teams in the discussion, or potential two-loss AAC champion Army or Tulane, two squads lacking quality victories.

Georgia, Tennessee: There are only four SEC teams who will — or have a chance to — end the regular season with double-digit wins: Texas (10-1), Tennessee (9-2), Georgia (9-2) and Texas A&M (8-3). The Bulldogs, who have already clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game, will get there with a win over Georgia Tech. The Volunteers would have 10 by beating Vanderbilt.

Texas A&M’s on the uneasiest footing. After falling in overtime to Auburn, the Aggies have to beat the Longhorns at home and then topple Georgia in the SEC title game to hit the 10-win mark and get the auto-bid as one of the nation’s highest-ranked conference champions.

The likelihood Texas A&M beats Texas and Georgia over the next two weekends is slim. This team only has one victory over a team currently ranked inside the selection committee’s top 25 (Missouri).

Manuel mentioned this month that the selection committee would not necessarily dock the loser of a conference championship game if all other factors are equal, but Texas A&M would squash that opinion if the Aggies beat Texas then fall to Georgia in Atlanta. There’s no chance a four-loss team from the SEC gets in.

As it stands, three SEC bids should go to Texas, Georgia and Tennessee, with the possibility of a fourth coming down to various three-loss teams on the bubble, including South Carolina and Alabama.

Hoping for a lock: Indiana, Boise State, SMU 

Indiana: If Curt Cignetti’s team handles Purdue next week, the Hoosiers will be a playoff team and could get a first-round home game. But it all really depends on how far they fall from No. 5. The selection committee has viewed the Hoosiers favorably all season despite a soft slate, and Saturday’s loss to Ohio State was more competitive than the final score indicated. They needed that to stay in the picture. 

Boise State: The Broncos know what they have to do — win out. As long as Boise State beats Oregon State and wins the Mountain West, it’s in. There’s nothing Army or Tulane could do to get the Group of Five’s auto-bid if Boise State finishes 12-1.

SMU: Rhett Lashlee can leave no doubt with the selection committee by taking out Cal and then Miami or Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Like Notre Dame, SMU hasn’t lost since September and rides an eight-game winning streak into the regular-season finale. The Mustangs have already clinched a spot in the ACC title game, but an upset loss to Cal would summon a must-win scenario in Charlotte. 

There aren’t many positives for SMU in that case. That’s 11 of 12 spots accounted for if the aforementioned teams handle business during rivalry week and then across conference championship weekend nationally. The final playoff spot would likely go to a multi-loss Big 12 champion unless there’s more, unforeseen chaos along the way that would open the door for another SEC at-large selection with three losses.