With upset loss to Cowboys, Commanders at risk of falling into Kliff Kingsbury trap

When the Arizona Cardinals fired Kliff Kingsbury in January 2023, the coach who jumped from the college game to NFL head coach had developed a reputation.

He was a sharp play-caller with creative offenses that had helped jumpstart 2019 first overall draft pick Kyler Murray’s career. Opposing coordinators wondered how to stop the looks he threw at them early each season, the time in the college trenches fueling Kingsbury’s creative and diverse schematic wrinkles.

But midway through the season, a shift would occur. Opposing coordinators competing at the game’s highest level would begin to solve the problems that the Cardinals gave them. One team would counter Arizona’s game plan with success, and the next team would follow that blueprint — often adding its own trump card.

The result: In four years with Kingsbury as their head coach, the Cardinals’ winning rate always trailed off in November and December. Arizona won 56.9% of their first nine games across those years (20-15-1). Afterward: They won just 26.7% (8-22) to close the season.

The difference and repeated nature of the annual drop shaded Kingsbury’s coaching reputation, fair or not. He took the 2023 season off before Dan Qunn hired him to coordinate the Washington Commanders’ offense during a cycle in which Kingsbury had plenty of suitors.

Kingsbury deserves a share of the credit for the remarkable rookie year of Jayden Daniels, whom the Commanders drafted second overall before he had the best career start. But the coordinator also can’t escape the reality that has followed him from Arizona to Washington.

The Commanders’ production and ability to win games is dipping after a strong start to the season. Their third straight loss, a 34-26 loss to a reeling Dallas Cowboys team, reflects that.

And while the accountability goes far beyond Kingsbury, Daniels’ postgame sentiments eerily reflected the tropes that shaped Kingsbury’s Arizona tenure.

“Defensive coordinators look at teams having success against [their next opponent] and how can they incorporate that into their schemes,” Daniels said. “You start to see trends and watch film, but you got to be able to adjust on the fly. We were able to adjust on the fly, but we didn’t do that early enough. And that starts with me seeing it, the receivers seeing it, everyone seeing it all as one accord.”

In consecutive NFC East games, Commanders’ performance has dipped

The 2024 Commanders have drastically exceeded preseason expectations.

Their head coach, general manager, quarterbacks and both coordinators are all in Year 1 in Washington. Even team ownership remains the newest, in Year 2. And yet, in their first nine games, the Commanders’ 7-2 clip matched or exceeded the franchise’s win total from eight of their past 11 seasons. Washington jumped out to an NFC East lead, and then had a chance to reclaim it last week during a Thursday night visit to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Instead, the Eagles have now won seven straight to sit comfortably atop the division at 9-2. The Commanders have lost three straight, including two straight division games, and dropped to 7-5.

“When you got a home game and you’re going for the division, you want to take advantage of those,” Quinn said. “When you miss them, it stings.”

Against the Eagles and Cowboys the past two weeks, Washington has managed to stay close if low-scoring through three quarters. The Commanders led 10-6 entering the fourth in Philadelphia; hosting Dallas, they trailed 10-9 after three quarters.

Both times, the fourth quarter got out of control, and a culturally young Washington team struggled to keep up.

The Eagles outscored Washington 20-8 in the fourth quarter, the Commanders’ only contribution a final-minute touchdown to tight end Zach Ertz. The Cowboys outscored the Commanders 24-17 in the fourth during a period most appropriately and professionally described as bonkers.

The Cowboys scored a 99-yard touchdown on a kickoff return, then the Commanders followed up a field goal with an 86-yard touchdown that Terry McLaurin took 58 yards after the catch. Washington kicker Austin Seibert — whose field-goal attempt 71 seconds earlier was good — missed the game-tying extra point, and the Cowboys then returned Washington’s onside kick attempt for a touchdown before intercepting Daniels’ final Hail Mary. (No guarantee after the Commanders beat the Chicago Bears on a Hail Mary last month.)

The game — with several missed field goals, a blocked field goal, a blocked punt and a missed extra-point attempt — required managing emotions and schematic adjustments alike.

“As I’m learning, you don’t ride the roller coaster, you stay even-keeled throughout it all because it’s a long season,” Daniels said. “A lot of things can happen in a game in the NFL. So man, just try to stay even-keeled and control the things you can control.”

The Commanders controlled their offensive possessions and end-of-game scenarios far more reliably to start the season. As defenses have ramped up their exotic pressures and more effectively stifled Washington on early downs, the Commanders have not been able to respond.

Washington’s postseason hopes are still viable — and would be meaningful

Regardless of how Washington’s next several weeks unfold, there will be reason to view 2024 as a success for the franchise. The team’s functionality and efficiency is better than it’s been in years, its culture under Josh Harris’ ownership group seemingly light-years ahead of predecessor Dan Snyder’s era.

The Commanders have discovered a grit and toughness that will lay the groundwork for Quinn’s tenure. They’ve created a framework for their franchise quarterback’s success from the first few weeks of his rookie year, giving them the opportunity to chase postseason success while exploiting the best market hack of the NFL’s salary cap era: a quarterback’s rookie contract.

Even as Daniels’ performance dipped in recent weeks — he’s had three touchdown passes to three interceptions the past two weeks after beginning his career with a 9:2 ratio — he’s still creating explosive plays like McLaurin’s 86-yard chance to save the game and Daniels’ own 17-yard rushing touchdown that gave Washington a lead in the third quarter.

The quarterback will be fine. The coordinator might be, too. But as the Kingsbury late-season ghosts begin to reappear, the coordinator and all of Washington’s staff have a chance to buck the trend with which he began his NFL career.

Quinn touched on that lesson when he praised his team’s effort and process while acknowledging it’d be nice to need late-game heroics less often. The Commanders can’t just keep learning lessons, Quinn said. They also need to apply what they’ve learned. How can they harness the belief they’re creating?

“Because we’ve been in these, being battle-tested as a first-year group more than most,” Quinn said. “And you want to be able to [not just learn] these end-of-game, winning-time moments. It’s about winning them. And we’ve won some.”

Washington is currently sitting in the final NFC wild-card spot, with a 60 percent chance to make the playoffs, per Next Gen Stats. Games against the Tennessee Titans and New Orleans Saints await on either side of their bye.

They’ll finish their year with another round of Eagles and Cowboys games on either side of the Atlanta Falcons.

Quinn will encourage his players between now and then to drill down on execution and attention to detail. He’ll continue to preach confidence and attitude, he said. The hope: The many high notes of the Commanders season will begin rounding into more consistent form.

Kingsbury will hope that, too.

“I don’t want it to go up and down, up and down,” Quinn said. “Every time we go: This is the edge, this is where we go, this is the time to go to capture it.”