Betting a ‘Filly for the Course’ in 2024 Falls City Stakes

Thanksgiving Thursday kicks off what’s traditionally a great four days of horse racing for fans and gamblers under the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs, as the historic Louisville track wraps up its fall meet and then takes a five-month break before re-opening for its spring meet and ramping up excitement for the 151^st Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve.

Churchill’s holiday card is anchored by two graded stakes, and the first of those, the $400,000, Grade 3 Falls City Stakes, brings together a competitive field of eight fillies and mares ages 3 and older to square off going 1 1/8 miles around two turns on dirt. One of the probables, #1 Neon Icon (15-1 morning-line odds), is also entered in the Grade 3 Mrs. Revere Stakes held on turf during Churchill’s Black Friday Nov. 29 card.

Two fillies come into the Falls City off of graded stakes wins: #2 Tarifa (9-5), a Godolphin homebred trained by Brad Cox who won the Grade 2 Mother Goose Stakes by a head Oct. 26 at Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct), and #4 Musical Mischief (2-1), an Into Mischief filly trained by Michael McCarthy who posted an upset win at 16.82-1 odds in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Locust Grove Stakes Sept. 14 at Churchill. I hope that the blue-blood connections of Tarifa nudge her into post-time favoritism in the Falls City, because I think Musical Mischief is a clear standout in this race. She’ll be the filly I construct my wagers around in hopes of expanding my money clip Thanksgiving afternoon along with my waistline.

Over the past year, Musical Mischief has been in fine form but she’s kicked it up a notch since the summer, winning a 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming race on a muddy track June 30 at Churchill, finishing fourth by a length in the one-mile Groupie Doll Stakes at Ellis Park in August after getting bumped at the start, and then unleashing a career-best effort when romping by 3 ¼ lengths in the 1 1/16-mile Locust Grove. She’s 3-for-5 overall at Churchill, the three wins coming in her most recent starts on the dirt main track.

Musical Mischief was considered for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar, and I had her pegged as a viable longshot contender in the race to use with eventual winner and probable Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna in exotic wagers. Instead, she’s coming back in this spot and showed she’s ready for it by posting a bullet four-furlong workout in :47.60 Nov. 21 at Churchill. She has the perfect stalk-and-pounce running style for Thursday’s Falls City, which should enable jockey Edgar Morales to sit off probable pacesetter #3 Peignoir (10-1) and pressing Tarifa and #6 Loved (3-1) for a mile or so. Morales has ridden this filly in each of her past three starts and should know just when to press the button and ask for her best early in the homestretch.

Tarifa is certainly capable of winning and I’ll use her in my exacta and trifecta bets. She’s only had one poor race in nine career starts, a ninth-place effort in the Longines Kentucky Oaks behind Thorpedo Anna in May. That came on a sloppy track at Churchill, and the Thanksgiving forecast calls for rain in Louisville. On the other hand, Tarifa has also won a graded stakes in the slop. I just think she might be a bounce candidate in the Falls City as she was all out to fend off favored Gun Song in the Mother Goose after a sustained stretch battle. That was held at 1 1/8 miles around two turns, and despite her win, I feel that Tarifa is best suited to slightly shorter races.

Loved’s morning-line odds might tick up come post time. Another Godolphin runner, she was no match for Musical Mischief in the Locust Grove, finishing 6 ½ lengths behind in sixth, and after that she was nine lengths in arrears to Idiomatic in the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes. Prior to those races, however, she won a 1 1/16-mile stakes at Horseshoe Indianapolis and earned a speed figure that is competitive with the top contenders in the Falls City. Looking back in the past performances, her 2023 form (when she won three route races in a row, each by open lengths) shapes up very well with this group if she can cycle back to it.

Finally, if Neon Icon stays in the Falls City, she’s worthy of using in exotic bets. The 3-year-old turned heads at Churchill back in May with a 5 ½-length romp in a 1 ¼-mile allowance-optional claimer that was washed off of the turf, and then made three consecutive starts in stakes races over the next three months without success. She returned to the allowance ranks in October at Keeneland and won a 1 1/8-mile race by a rallying length, and has since breezed at Churchill twice, including a four-furlong workout Nov. 16 that ranked second of 70 at the distance. Her speed figures are about 15 points below those earned by the top Falls City contenders, but I think there’s some untapped potential here and the mile and an eighth should be right in her wheelhouse.

My wagering strategy for the 2024 Falls City Stakes is as follows:

$20 budget:

$14 win on Musical Mischief

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $12 win on #4

$1 trifecta, key Musical Mischief over Neon Icon, Tarifa, and Loved ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $1 trifecta, #4 over #s 1,2,6, 1,2,6

$30 budget:

$18 win on #4 Musical Mischief

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $18 win on #4

$2 exacta, key Musical Mischief over Neon Icon, Tarifa, and Loved ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $2 exacta, key #4 over #s 1,2,6

$1 trifecta, key Musical Mischief over Neon Icon, Tarifa, and Loved ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $1 trifecta, #4 over #s 1,2,6, 1,2,6