ACC Poised for Multiple College Football Playoff Bids While SEC and Big 12 Fall

SMU already clinched a spot in the ACC championship game. Miami will do the same if it beats the Syracuse Orange. If the Hurricanes lose, Clemson gets that title-game slot. Even if Clemson doesn’t reach the game in Charlotte, they could conceivably get a third bid for the league by beating a red-hot South Carolina Gamecocks squad.

“Obviously, they’re at 9–2, with only two losses,” committee chair Warde Manuel said of Clemson. “The teams right behind them have three losses. We just felt, as a committee, as we looked at their body of work, with three straight wins after their loss to Louisville, including back-to-back wins against Virginia Tech and Pitt, that they deserved to move up into that 12th position.”

The SEC’s communal meltdown Saturday—when three ranked teams lost to unranked opponents—paved the way for this. Clemson is now ranked directly ahead of the No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide, No. 14 Mississippi Rebels and No. 15 South Carolina. If the Tigers beat the Gamecocks, none of those three teams will jump them. If someone in the top 12 loses, their chances increase.

It’s a sharp little comeback for a conference that looked like it might be limited to one bid a few weeks ago. SMU’s continued winning, Miami’s body of work and Clemson’s three-game winning streak since a loss to Louisville has been the combination of events the ACC needed to position itself. Then the SEC opened the door.

That league is down to likely three bids—the Texas Longhorns, Georgia Bulldogs and Tennessee Volunteers. The Texas A&M Aggies remain alive but have to beat Texas on Saturday and Georgia in the SEC championship game. Without an automatic bid, it’s very hard to see them getting in. The same goes for the three-loss SEC contingent of Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina. That’s especially true with Clemson positioned between them and the bracket at the moment.

Not only has the number of SEC teams dwindled, so have its opportunities to host first-round games. Teams seeded Nos. 5-12 will play first-round campus games, with the Nos. 5-8 teams hosting teams 9-12. The SEC champion will get a first-round bye, but will the runner-up be seeded in the top eight?

The first round is looking more like a cold-weather event than ever. If all the Big Ten favorites win this weekend, the Oregon Ducks and Ohio State Buckeyes are headed toward a rematch in that league championship game. The winner will almost certainly be the No. 1 seed, while the loser would be No. 5 and host a game. The Penn State Nittany Lions, meanwhile, only need to beat the overmatched Maryland Terrapins on Saturday to lock up a playoff berth and a likely top-eight seed. The same goes for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who have a slightly tougher task at the USC Trojans.

If Oregon wins the Big Ten and the rest of the above plays out, three of the four first-round games would be played in Columbus, Ohio; State College, Pa., and South Bend, Ind. Pack warm, visiting teams.

Part of that equation could be the sunshine boys from Tempe, the Arizona State Sun Devils, playing a chilly first-round road game. The tension continues between the Big 12 champion and the Boise State Broncos about who will grab the fourth first-round bye.

The Broncos (10–1) are the leading contender for the Group of 5 automatic bid, and for now would be slotted in as the No. 4 seed. Boise State is the No. 11 team for now, five spots ahead of the highest-ranked Big 12 team, Arizona State. If both keep winning, it will be a point of contention about whether the Sun Devils (or any Big 12 champion) could move up far enough to take the first-round bye from Boise State.

The Big 12 already is lobbying for that spot, citing its overall strength of schedule compared to the Mountain West. The interesting dynamic on Boise State’s side of the equation: How much does the Mountain West leadership want to go to bat for a school that is leaving it for the rebuilt Pac-12?

So with just two weekends of games left before Selection Sunday, these are the major developments: the ACC’s multi-bid comeback, the SEC’s slide and the battle between Boise State and the Big 12. But the larger context is this: After all the unpredictability of a wild season, the lists of contenders and scenarios has shrunk appreciably. It’s all starting to make sense.