Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/27 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers First Half Team Total Over 64.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OH

The Cavs are a rocket ship in home games, and they should have their way with a bad defense early on here. Cleveland averages 69.1 first half points per game at home this season, and are 8-2 over this first half total despite being just 5-5 to tonight’s full-game team total. I think that’s important here in a game where Trae Young might be out or limited, so this could turn into a runaway where the Cavs slow it down late. But out of the gates I think they shred a Hawks defense that is 27th in first half points allowed, and is worse on the road, so give me the Cavs over this number at an attractive price.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Utah Valley/Samford Over 158.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+

This off-the-radar game has been attracting a lot of attention from sharp bettors who see this as being a track meet. They’ve driven the total up a few points, but I still think it’s too low for the kind of game these teams will get into. Samford went to overtime last night so they’ll be a little tired today, not that it will have any impact on their style of running and gunning three’s all game.

Utah Valley will be a more willing partner in that tempo than NDSU was last night, but Samford’s style managed to get that game to fly over the total so this should be no different. The Wolverines struggle against the three, so Samford will splash plenty of those, but will also attack Samford’s biggest weakness with a lot of inside scoring. The Bulldogs are 310th in two-point defense, a product of giving up a lot of layups in their frenetic style, so those plus lots of made three’s should equal an over here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) SMU/Washington St Over 159.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:30 PM CT on truTV

Pace, pace, and more pace should be the story in this game that carries it over the big total. Both of these teams want to get out and run, as both are top-50 for shortest offensive possession length. Andy Enfield’s first year at SMU has brought a fun up-tempo style that the excellent Mustang shooters are benefiting from, and they should score all over an average Washington State defense. But Wazzu runs with the best of them, and they have a great effective field goal rate buoyed by the 16th-best two-point percentage in the country. That spells easy buckets and lots of points in this neutral site game where both teams have had a game to get used to the sightlines.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UConn/Dayton Under 148.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 11:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I’m sure neither team is happy to be in the 7th-place game of the Maui Invitational, but especially not UConn who was dreaming of a three-peat next March. Maybe the Huskies just aren’t that good though, as the cracks have really been exposed in these past couple days. They don’t have a go-to player that scares anyone, and aren’t playing fluid team offense right now, thus the scoring woes that have popped up.

A good Dayton defense should help further expose a shaky UConn offense in this game, while the Huskies are sure to be locked in defensively themselves. I don’t see Dayton as having the shooters to compensate if the Huskies put the defensive clamps down, and these teams both play at very slow tempos, so I agree with market movement that sees an under on this total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +74.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.