Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/28 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL/NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) 3-Leg 7 Point Turkey Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions -3: 11:30 AM CT on CBS

Do you remember Detroit’s game last Thanksgiving? I do, it hurt, a lot. I’m sure Dan Campbell and the Lions remember it pretty well too, and are looking to make up for it this time around. Combine the motivation with Detroit’s ATS freight train ways, and you get the double-digit spread for this game, which I’m not inclined to lay.

However, double-digit favorite on Thanksgiving are 9-0 ATS since 2005, and favorites overall during that time are 48-9 straight up, so I feel pretty confident in this Turkey Teaser kicking off with Lions at a field goal.

Miami Dolphins +10.5 @ Green Bay Packers: 7:20 PM CT on NBC

There are two conflicting angles in this game that I’m struggling with. The first and probably lazier of the two is the narrative around Miami and playing in cold weather. While stats and records do tend to back up the idea that the Dolphins don’t like going north this time of year, I’m getting a very big cushion here with a hungry team.

And it’s good to be hungry on Thanksgiving, which brings me to the other angle, which is this Miami team’s motivation. They know the window is tight but still open to make the playoffs, so I think we get a good effort out of them today. With the Miami offense clicking and the Green Bay defense having some key injuries, I’ll count on the worst case being the Dolphins getting in this big back door of a number.

Memphis/Tulane Over 48.5: 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

This looks like a great game for points, with Tulane positioning themselves for the AAC title game and trying to make statements in every game. Memphis is going to struggle with the Green Wave attack, but should find success themselves on offense. Tulane should be particularly able to exploit Memphis with their man and outside zone runs, two schemes that have seen the Tigers give up a lot of explosive plays to.

But Memphis has no other motivation than to go into attack mode here, which I think sees them throw a lot on early downs with Seth Henigan. The biggest weakness for Tulane’s defense is allowing success on early downs, and if Memphis is slinging it in those situations it will create more big plays. With both teams having tackling issues, I think we see plenty of explosives to get these offenses in range for points.

NFL (0.5 Unit) NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:30 PM CT on FOX

Go ahead Cowboys, ruin my Thanksgiving. If they can’t come home off an inspiring win and beat Drew Lock and a Giants team that has quit on the season, then what else can be said about the state of this franchise. I realize how bad Dallas has been from an ATS standpoint on Thanksgiving, going just 1-4 against the number the past 5 years and 2-11 the past 13 Turkey Days. But favorites and public favorites tend to do well on Thanksgiving for some reason, and I’m expecting some momentum for this team off last week against a pitiful opponent they’ve owned for a long time.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) New Mexico vs Arizona St +4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:30 PM CT on truTV

I don’t quite understand why this number has gotten so inflated with New Mexico here. This is a neutral site game in Palm Springs, so I question why the Lobos would be favored at all. Their powers tend to diminish considerably outside of The Pit where their offense is far better year after year, so laying more than a possession here is strange.

Arizona State continues to answer every challenge this season, and have finally found some outside shooting to rely on which gives them an advantage against a UNM defense that has struggled outside the arc. My gut says the Sun Devils win this one outright, but I’ll take a generous number of points that is outside the projections from metrics sites.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): New Mexico/Arizona St Over 158.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

There is a very compelling argument for points in this game, and even at this high number I think these teams can reach it. The main reason is going to be pace, which has increased significantly for ASU this year but has gone nuclear for Richard Pitino and the Lobos who now lead the country in adjusted tempo. These are two very good shooting teams who can really get hot from long range, and if this turns into an up-tempo three-point contest, the total will be nowhere near high enough.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +73.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.