Job Seekers Face Tough Market, While Government Gaslights Them About It | The Daily Economy

My younger sister’s relentless struggle to secure a full-time job this year is a harsh reality shared by countless Americans. For over a year, she has tirelessly searched for full-time opportunities, only to encounter few full-time job openings and many positions filled before she can even apply. As a result, she is left to juggle two part-time jobs and side hustles just to make ends meet.

This experience leaves her, and many Americans, questioning the steady stream of positive headlines from media outlets, government officials, and The White House celebrating a “strong, stable, and steady” job market. For job seekers like her, these narratives often feel disconnected from reality, leaving many to feel misled or even gaslighted.

In this article, I will provide job seekers with key economic evidence to test and critically evaluate these optimistic job market claims, offering a more accurate assessment of the labor market’s true state.

4.6 Million Americans: The Labor Market’s Troubling Shift to Part-Time Work

While media headlines have often celebrated historically low unemployment rates this year and a ‘robust’ US labor market, a closer look at the quality of jobs — specifically part-time versus full-time work — reveals a troubling reality. Federal Reserve data show that full-time employment remains below pre-pandemic trends, with full-time job growth stagnating over the past two years despite a growing population.

At the same time, not only has part-time work increased, but the number of individuals holding two part-time jobs has risen steadily. As of October 2024, this figure had reached 2,1 million people, a significant rise compared to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, 4.6 million Americans are employed part-time for economic reasons, meaning they are working part-time not by choice, but due to reduced hours or an inability to secure full-time employment.

This growing reliance on part-time work, coupled with stagnation in full-time employment, exposes fundamental weaknesses in the labor market that contradict optimistic narratives. The reality is that part-time jobs often come with lower pay, fewer benefits, and inconsistent hours, leaving workers increasingly vulnerable to financial insecurity.

Dual Concern: Weak Job Numbers and Surging Government Sector Growth

Another critical measure of labor market health for job seekers to evaluate is the number of jobs created as well as the composition — or types — of jobs being added to the US economy.

In October, the economy added just 12,000 jobs, a significant shortfall compared to the expected 125,000. To put this into perspective, this is not only the lowest job growth recorded this year but also the weakest monthly gain since the onset of the pandemic.

This figure is especially concerning when compared to the 2024 average of over 170,000 jobs added per month. Such a sharp decline indicates a troubling slowdown in labor market activity, raising serious questions about the overall strength and resilience of the economy.

Job seekers should also examine the composition of job growth, paying particular attention to the differences between government and private sector employment. Recent data highlights a concerning trend: while private sector job growth has slowed, government job growth has accelerated at an unprecedented pace.

From January to June 2024, over 17 percent of new jobs added to the labor market were government positions, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Hoover Institution tracked job growth in California, and found that “between January 2022 and June 2024, total California jobs grew by about 156,000, with government jobs accounting for 96.5 percent of that growth.”

The acceleration in government hiring is particularly concerning, as government employment had already fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels by September 2023, with 709,000 jobs restored that year, meaning the current surge represents new growth rather than a recovery from pandemic losses — and this acceleration has now reached record highs.

The rapid expansion of government sector jobs raises significant economic concerns, as these roles differ fundamentally from private sector positions, which operate within a profit-driven framework where success depends on responding to market signals and customer satisfaction. Private-sector job creation builds the things we want. 

In contrast, government jobs are funded through taxpayer dollars, irrespective of the efficiency or effectiveness of the services delivered. And every government job crowds out or trades off value from more productive uses because, as Henry Hazlitt reminded us, “government can’t give us anything without depriving us of something else.”

The addition of only 12,000 jobs to the economy last month, combined with the accelerated growth in government sector employment, serves as a clear signal for Americans to view the labor market outlook with caution. These trends reflect underlying structural weaknesses undermining the long-term sustainability of the labor market.

BLS’s Stunning Revision of Job Growth Signals a Need for Reexamination of Labor Market Data

As if the acceleration in government sector job growth weren’t concerning enough, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ recent downward revision — revealing that 818,000 fewer jobs, the overwhelming majority of which were in the private sector, were added between March 2023 and March 2024 than initially reported — paints an even more troubling picture of the reliability of labor market data. The initial estimate of 2.9 million jobs was revised to just 2.1 million — a staggering adjustment that lowers the average monthly job growth from 242,000 to 174,000. 

While revisions are a standard component of macroeconomic measurement, the recent adjustment by the BLS is extraordinary in magnitude, deviating by five times the typical margin of error. Errors of this scale fall well outside acceptable bounds, suggesting that the initial figures were fundamentally flawed. Given that these data points underpin media narratives, influence Federal Reserve policy decisions, and shape public perceptions of the US economy, the damage of relying on bad data may be significant.

The implication is clear: the overly optimistic reports of job growth in recent months have been misleading, warranting increased skepticism from the public and a call for a reexamination of the labor market’s true condition.

A More Honest Labor Market Narrative: Empowering Job Seekers with Accurate Economic Insights

When employers’ top concerns include things like inflation, economic uncertainty, regulatory compliance costs, and anticipated tariffs, a decline in full-time employment and job quality becomes an expected market response. Rising costs and burdensome regulations strain businesses and ripple through the labor market, making it increasingly difficult for job seekers to secure stable, well-paying positions. 

To address these challenges, the government must reduce barriers and costs for employers by minimizing regulatory burdens and avoid further quantitative easing, which has driven inflationary pressures in the economy. Creating an environment that incentivizes entrepreneurship and supports labor market growth is essential for fostering job creation, alleviating inflationary pressures, and expanding opportunities for high-quality employment. 

This Thanksgiving, American job seekers like my sister, would be thankful if we moved beyond overly optimistic narratives and instead presented a more accurate view of the labor market. By relying on economic evidence, such as the data shared here, we can empower job seekers to critically evaluate these claims and hold media and policymakers accountable for delivering a transparent and honest assessment of the labor market’s true state.