GenAI comes for jobs once considered ‘safe’ from automation

Jobs in geographical areas and scope once thought to be at low risk of automation are soon to be the most affected by generative AI, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

“Generative AI will transform many jobs, but its impact will be greatest in regions that have been least exposed to past waves of automation,” the OECD stated in its Job Creation and Local Economic Development 2024 report, released late last week.

The impact of generative AI on the roles will be even greater and more wide-sweeping than it was for previous automated technologies, the report said.

Previously, automation affected more rural and manufacturing jobs, but generative AI’s specialty lies in cognitive non-routine tasks, meaning it will affect more high-skilled workers and women than previous automation technologies. This also means its impact will be seen in metropolitan areas, where these roles are typically based.

The OECD puts out a version of this report annually, reflecting major changes and disruptions in the job market for that year. The 2024 report focused on the geography of generative AI, while the 2023 version focused on examining the landscape of green jobs.

The latest report measured the impact of generative AI by how much of workers’ tasks could become at least 50 percent faster through its use.

Currently, this applies to 25 percent of the labor market in OECD countries and 20 percent of these staffers’ tasks. This number is expected to grow as the technology matures – to a point where up to 70 percent of these employees could have half of their tasks done at least 50 percent faster with generative AI.

The industries most exposed are education, ICT, and finance.

But just because a job is “affected” by generative AI doesn’t mean the role itself will go away. In the past decade, automation has not led to widespread employment declines and it boosted productivity. Regions with higher risk of automation experienced a 5.6 percent increase in labor productivity over five years.

While there have been some job losses, most regions have experienced a surplus in job creation, though these jobs may not directly benefit those displaced by automation.

Whether AI will help or hinder a workforce is all in how the technology is applied. For example, it can help unlock untapped talent in low-skilled workers or make once inaccessible jobs achievable for those with disabilities, noted the OECD.

AI can be used to supplement workers where feasible, which can ease labor shortages and the effects of an aging workforce.

Solving those problems effectively with automation and generative AI will require policies across all member regions, the OECD stated.

“Targeted programs should focus on addressing place-specific obstacles, whether they relate to a region’s attractiveness to workers and capital, the quality of regional education and training systems, or regulatory frameworks,” it concluded. ®