Black Friday weekend shopping traffic exceeds NRF predictions

Dive Brief:

• Falling short of last year’s numbers, the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics estimate that 197 million consumers shopped between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, down from 200.4 million in 2023, but higher than the NRF’s initial estimate of 183.4 million shoppers.
• The NRF estimates that 126 million consumers made their holiday purchases in stores throughout the five-day shopping period, an increase from 121.4 million shoppers in 2023. Meanwhile, an estimated 124.3 million shoppers made their holiday purchases online in the same timeframe, a drop from the 134.2 million consumers who did the same last year, according to the NRF’s estimate based on its survey of 3,055 adult consumers.
• Despite surpassing Cyber Monday as the top online shopping day, the number of online Black Friday shoppers fell from 90.6 million in 2023 to 87.3 million this year. Meanwhile, the number of Black Friday brick-and-mortar shoppers rose from 76.2 million last year to 81.7 million this year, the NRF said.

Dive Insight:

The NRF report notes that shoppers spent slightly more on their holiday gifts this year during the five-day shopping period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. On average, shoppers spent $235, up $8 from last year. While nearly half (49%) of survey respondents said they bought apparel and accessories as gifts, almost a third (31%) bought toys, followed by gift cards (27%), candy and food (23%) and personal care items (23%), the survey found.

“Whether it’s tradition, the deals or simply an activity with friends and family, consumers continue to embrace Thanksgiving holiday weekend shopping,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said in a statement. “Additional offerings like free shipping, a limited sale or promotion or a positive review helped convince most shoppers to move items from their shopping carts to the purchase finish line.”

Echoing similar reports, the NRF noted that Cyber Monday shoppers increasingly turned to their mobile devices to shop online. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of online Cyber Monday shoppers used their mobile devices to make their holiday purchases, up from 55% last year and the highest proportion that has done so since the NRF began tracking such figures. Similarly, Adobe Analytics found that 57% of Cyber Monday’s sales occurred via mobile devices, up from 2019 when shoppers bought a third of their Cyber Monday purchases on mobile devices. This year’s Cyber Monday spending on mobile alone rose 13.3% year over year to $7.6 billion, according to Adobe Analytics.

Though in-store shopping on Black Friday exceeded the NRF’s projections, the decline in in-store shoppers has hit some retailers more than others. This week, Simon, the real estate investment trust that owns a portfolio of shopping centers, announced that it saw a 5.9% bump in foot traffic on Black Friday compared to last year. However, a report from RetailNext found that Black Friday foot traffic fell 3.2% overall and dropped the most in the Midwest, at 7% year over year.

Though Thanksgiving weekend has come to a close, there’s more spending to come through the full holiday season. The NRF released a report in October predicting that retail sales could grow between 2.5% and 3.5% from November through December, generating between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in retail sales.