Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/07 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Georgia/Texas First Half Over 24 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ABC

The full game total here crossed the 50-point mark this week, so why is the first half significantly less than half of that? Well, Georgia doesn’t start games with seemingly much focus or effort, ranking 79th in first half scoring and 40th in first half points allowed, not exactly what you’d expect from the 5th-ranked team in the country.

But when the Bulldogs have to step up in class or have a high-stakes game, they tend to find themselves. Take the first meeting with Texas where they put up 23 in the first half as a prime example, plus it shows they’re capable of scoring on one of the best defenses in the country. Texas has done well out of the gates all season, averaging 21.1 first half points which is 6th-best in the country so I’m not too worried about their contribution here. In a game where smart money thinks we’ll see points, I’m looking to take advantage of what I see as a skewed number here.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Penn St vs Oregon -3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CBS

I seem to be in the minority on this opinion, but I simply can’t un-see years and years of James Franklin football. The Penn State coach never, and I do mean never, gets it done in critical games. The Nittany Lions shouldn’t even be in this position, as they got a very favorable closing schedule, lucked out in a game at Minnesota, and then benefited from the Ohio State loss to Michigan last week. That’s an Ohio State team they lost at home to by the way, in their one other massive game this season which tends to support my case on Franklin.

This has been a strange season in college football, where really no team is dominant like in previous years. But Oregon has been the cream of the crop, and I’d argue are the more tested team here with two of their wins over other teams that will be in the CFP. So the number really doesn’t matter for me, I’m inclined to sit back and watch James Franklin coach himself out of a Big Ten title in this one.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

I’m going to keep going after these first half totals for Boston at TD Garden as long as they’re discounted from what I’m used to at a couple points higher. Especially in a game like this where they’ll be pushed in the first half by another team that can fill it up early in games. Memphis actually scores more first half points than Boston does, and their tempo that’s second-fastest in the NBA will likely turn this game into a track meet.

That’s evidenced by the high total at 239 points, but the first half is significantly less than half that at 117, and Boston’s isolated total is skewed to the second half. So that makes this an advantageous number in my book, especially with how I see this game playing out. If Memphis does dial up the pace, then their troubles with guarding the perimeter will show up in a big way against the typical barrage of three’s from the Celtics. Add in the return of Jayson Tatum last night and hopefully Kristaps Porzingis tonight, plus the no rest for Boston, and a high-scoring first half is coming from them.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Eastern Washington/South Dakota St Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

When South Dakota State gets ahold of a team that plays no defense, their tendency is to run it up. In this cross-league contest between the Big Sky and Summit conferences, that incentive will be there even more and I think it leads to a lot of points. Eastern Washington will play their typical brand of zero defensive effort here, as the Eagles rank 339th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 356th in effective field goal defense. Some excellent shooters for SDSU will capitalize, but E-Wash will get theirs as well behind a fairly strong offense. With pace expected to be high in this one, I’m seeing what the metrics sites are seeing which is a game that should finish in the high 150’s or above.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +73.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.