Gukesh’s ambition vs Ding’s momentum: What to expect from chess World Championship’s home stretch

Fifteen days and 12 games later, there is still nothing to separate world champion Ding Liren and challenger Dommaraju Gukesh in the 2024 FIDE World Championship. They are tied 6-6 after dramatic wins for each in the last two matches.

As the tie-breaks loom large on the horizon, there is potentially a safe exit out of the two remaining classical games. But given the number of twists and turns that this championship has already taken, few would bet against another wild ride in the upcoming games 13 and 14.

On the final rest day, here’s a look at the way ahead as the chess World Championship reaches its home stretch.

How would the loss in game 12 affect Gukesh?

After a stunning win in game 11, Gukesh has been brought back to square one by his loss in game 12. The 18-year-old says he’s still satisfied by the where the match stands, despite the loss.

What will be a bigger concern for him, though, was how Ding found his best chess to win on demand. The win in game 12 felt like it came out of the blue. Previously Ding, especially with the white pieces, has shown no signs of having it in him to push for wins. So what happened in game 12 would’ve been a massive curveball for Gukesh and his camp.

On ChessBase India’s stream, five-time world champion Viswanathan Anand called it a ‘traumatic’ loss for Gukesh, saying he felt as if the Indian challenger had been ‘wiped out’ in game 12.

In that sense, the rest day has come at the perfect time for Gukesh’s camp. It not only gives him enough time to get a bad day out of his system, but also allows him some more time to prepare for his final classical game with white pieces on Wednesday. So far in most games with white, Gukesh has caught Ding by surprise in the openings. Team Gukesh now have to come up with one more big plan.

Does Ding have the momentum now?

Simply put, yes. The situation is very different to what it could’ve been had Ding and Gukesh reached 6-6 playing two more draws instead of a statement win so close to the finish line.

Both players said that the momentum is even, and that the gap between their levels is pretty much non-existent. However, momentum is a key aspect of any sport, and in this case, one cannot deny that Ding has it firmly on his side.

Imagine their mentalities after game 11 – Gukesh euphoric, Ding downbeat. But 24 hours later, it was the exact opposite. That’s why even though the match is currently tied, Ding has swung the pendulum of momentum his way, and now firmly holds all the aces.

So in case we get tiebreaks, who’s the better player in rapid and blitz?

At this stage, the tie-breaks are by no means a foregone conclusion. But fact remains that Ding is the better player in faster time controls. In both rapid and blitz, his FIDE ELO rating is in the late-2700s, compared to Gukesh’s ratings in the mid-2600s. At the elite level of chess, that is a large gulf between the two players. Although it is partly explained by Gukesh not playing in too many games in the faster time controls, due to his preference for classical chess.

Even in these 12 classical games so far, Ding has shown multiple times how he makes the best decisions when he’s under time pressure. He can now choose to go back to his comfort zone of staying solid and allowing Gukesh to take the risks, if he wants to. The match is right where Ding wants it to be.

Does Gukesh have the experience of handling such a loss?

Yes! Just six months ago, at the Candidates tournament which he won to reach the World Championship. Back then, Gukesh had lost in round 7 to Alireza Firouzja. Unlike this game 12 loss, he was in an advantageous position which he let slip. Like this game 12 loss, that too was just before a rest day.

Gukesh would later go on to say that it was after that loss he felt he could win the Candidates tournament, because of how good he felt both chess-wise and mentally during that rest day. Of course it is easier said than done to find that feeling back, given how the circumstances now are completely different, and the pressure on a different stratosphere.

What about Ding’s experience?

While Gukesh has the comfort of such an experience, Ding is now exactly where he was on his way to being crowned world champion last year. He’d won game 12 to make it 6-6, then drew games 13 and 14, before beating Ian Nepomniachtchi in the tie-breaks.

The stars seem to be aligning for the Chinese, and now it is down to Gukesh to find a way to once again break through. All his ambition will be tested, particularly in game 13 on Wednesday – which will be his last with the white pieces.