USMNT: A World Cup 2034 contender? A dream scenario – and a doomsday one

The final whistle blows at the 2034 World Cup final and the U.S. men’s national team are crowned world champions. A grizzled and battle-scarred Christian Pulisic, 37, now captain of the LA Galaxy, lifts the World Cup trophy in his final act as his country’s best-ever player.

“Everyone doubted us but I always believed we could do this,” says a defiant Pulisic in Riyadh. “We wanted to show the world that Americans can play, that we’re a football country. Now we’re the best team in the world. It’s a dream come true.”

Can you even imagine? It really is dream-like, isn’t it? For years the U.S. men’s program has touted plans and strategies that will lead to a World Cup title. It’s an objective that will be put to its ultimate test in 2026 when the U.S. co-hosts the World Cup along with Mexico and Canada. Pulisic will be at his peak and the U.S. will be expected to make history.

But let’s fast forward to 2034.

On Wednesday, FIFA confirmed the 2034 World Cup will be hosted by Saudi Arabia. With that official, here’s some hypothesizing about the potential successes or failures that the U.S. men’s squad may experience in 10 years. A lot can happen in a decade. It’s enough time for a program to make giant strides or debilitating steps backwards. In 2017, then-USMNT coach Bruce Arena touted the 2026 World Cup to be the tournament when the team would be ready to “start talking about winning” it all. Those thoughts are far dimmer now. The factors that will contribute to international success, or sporting failure, are countless.

For example, what will the new standard be for the national team after 2026? Will the bar have been raised? How will the personality of the USMNT evolve?

The answers to those questions will be determined by the legacy that Mauricio Pochettino leaves as U.S. head coach. The Argentine was hired before what could be a transformational World Cup for the Americans in 2026. What success looks like for Pochettino is simple: he has to take the U.S. to a semifinal. Anything less will be more of the same.

However, Pochettino doesn’t have a very long runway to change the culture and personality of the U.S. men’s program. The 2026 World Cup will be a make-or-break tournament for the Argentine. He won’t have the benefit that his predecessor Gregg Berhalter had in 2022, when expectations were lower, and when the objective was to prepare the players for four years later.

Can Mauricio Pochettino’s influence point the way to 2034 for the USMNT? (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

Still, it’s overly ambitious to believe that a historic finish at the next World Cup will drastically change the perceptions of middle America when it comes to this sport. U.S. Soccer as an organization will continue to attract investors whose financial support will help level the playing field for the men. Kids will always play soccer in this country and some truly quality players will stand out.

But soccer in America will always fight an uphill battle for relevance. It’s a foreign sport. Plain and simple. Increased attendance figures at MLS matches and a plethora of international tournaments hosted by the U.S. won’t change the existing way. Soccer in the U.S. is growing. Some say that it’s thriving. That’s fair, but the passion for soccer in America will never match, let alone eclipse, the way the sport is lived and breathed around the world. That raises more questions for the future.

What will Major League Soccer look like in 2034? Will parity and complicated financial rules continue to characterize the league? Or will MLS truly loosen up and compete consistently at both the regional and global levels? American players in Europe have become the core of the USMNT. Over time, will the country’s top players opt for a revamped MLS? Can more than just one or two national team players become household names in America?

There has never been a men’s World Cup champion that doesn’t list soccer as the country’s most popular sport. Think about that. The U.S. would truly be an outlier in that regard.

What would a celebratory parade in the States look like if the U.S. men were to win a World Cup? Would it outperform the rowdy and passionate celebrations that honor MLB, NFL and NBA champions? Would it look like a soccer party that’s typical in South America, Europe or Africa, for instance?

I tend to think, no. But I’ve digressed. Let’s focus now on two scenarios, ideal and doomsday, that may define the U.S. program in 10 years.

The U.S. becomes a true world power

Here is how things could fall into place. The U.S. reaches the 2026 World Cup semifinals through gritty, inspired play and exciting football. The tournament captivates the country, and gets fans believing that a future berth in a World Cup final is possible.

Pulisic wins the Golden Boot with a nearly flawless set of performances. The AC Milan star walks away with a third-place medal and loads of credibility. The stage is set for a 2030 run, and suddenly, Americans expect something that they’ve only ever demanded from the women’s national team: a World Cup trophy.

Pochettino earns savior-type praise and extends his contract for another four years. The continuity allows Pochettino to mold the national team’s play style and identity, which in turn establishes uniformity in the way the game is understood in the U.S. The men’s team plays before raucous sold-out crowds across the country for friendlies against Argentina, Germany, Brazil and France. They qualify comfortably for the 48-team field in 2030 and maintain their top-five FIFA ranking.

A controversial host, Saudi Arabia’s bid was officially approved on December 11. (Christophe Viseux/Getty Images)

Even after a devastating shootout loss to co-hosts Spain in the semifinal round in 2030, the momentum is unshakable. The U.S. men’s national team is considered a world power and legitimate contender to win the World Cup four years later. And in Saudi Arabia, history is made. A 62-year-old Pochettino, now nicknamed El Maestro, leads the U.S. to their first-ever men’s World Cup final.

Pulisic scores the winner against England, but he doesn’t dance to celebrate. Instead, he rips the corner flag from the ground, then slams it back in place and bangs his fist against the USMNT badge above his heart. The Americans have arrived.

Doomsday 2034

Or, it could go like this. Buckle up. The 48-team World Cup in 2026 is billed as the biggest sporting event of all time. Millions of fans attend games and previous TV ratings are obliterated. But the tournament, now several days longer because of the addition of 16 teams, fizzles out in mainstream America.

To make matters worse, the U.S. under Pochettino escape the group stage as one of the eight-best third-place teams, before crashing out in the round of 32 after a loss against Morocco. The Golden Generation is officially a farce and American men’s soccer takes a beating around the world.

Every stigma that exists about soccer in the U.S. is magnified. Americans can’t even advance to the meaningful stages in a watered-down tournament on home soil. U.S. Soccer and Pochettino agree to part ways, with the Argentine’s tenure viewed as an embarrassment. Heads roll at the federation level and calls for an American-born coach dominates the U.S. soccer pundit chatterverse.

MLS commissioner Don Garber insists the league’s structure isn’t holding back the sport in America. He refuses to make large-scale changes to improve the product on the field, the Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes fold, and Apple pulls out of its 10-year broadcast deal. Lionel Messi retires and criticizes his time in MLS in his first interview with TyC Sports in Argentina.

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“It’s a competitive league but there’s no ambition for the sport in the U.S. They think building new stadiums and hosting summer friendlies is football culture,” Messi remarks.

“Burger league” trends on X and Christian Pulisic, with one year left on his AC Milan contract, moves to MLS with a whimper. “I’m ready to relax and play in a league with way less pressure,” he says at a news conference in Los Angeles. Instability within U.S. Soccer and a fractured men’s program provide a disastrous backdrop for what will turn out to be a forgettable 2030 World Cup for the USMNT.

Landon Donovan’s stint as U.S. manager ends disastrously with an 0-3 World Cup record. Meanwhile, Inter Miami head coach Pep Guardiola publicly admits he was interested in the USMNT job, but was told that Donovan’s psychometric data and abstract reasoning test scores were better.

Guardiola leaves MLS to take the Saudi Arabia men’s national team job and guides the host country to the 2034 semifinal. They are defeated by eventual world champions Mexico. But on the final day of the group stage, Guardiola had gotten his revenge. In a politically-charged match, the hosts defeat the U.S. 4-1 at Riyadh’s 200,000-seat air-conditioned stadium.

The status quo mentality of MLS, plus two consecutive catastrophic outings at the World Cup, push soccer in America into a black hole of irrelevance. DAZN picks up the MLS broadcast rights, and Pulisic, a frequent guest on ESPN’s The Aaron Rodgers Show, wins several MLS Cup finals and is hailed as the best player in U.S. soccer history.

OK, that was downright scary. Back to reality. The 2034 World Cup is still 10 years away. What soccer in this country looks like, and how much progress the men’s national team can make in that time, is anyone’s guess. It’s more likely that the U.S. will continue to play relative to their talent level from here to 2034, claiming some big wins along the way and outperforming their expectations to a degree.

Is that good enough or does a miracle have to happen for true progress to be made?

(Top photo: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)