In keeping with the travel trends of 2024, AAA is predicting a record number of travelers will close out the year, taking to the skies, roadways, sea and rails for the year-end holidays.
With an estimated 119.3 million people expected to travel 50 miles or more from home over the year-end holiday period from Saturday, Dec. 21, to Wednesday, Jan.1, travel projections are expected to narrowly surpass the previous record set in 2019 by about 64,000 more travelers. This year’s forecast eclipses 2023’s end-of-the-year travel numbers by an additional three million travelers.
“The year-end holidays always bring opportunities for special moments with loved ones. For many, travel will play a significant role in building those lifelong memories,” said Lori Weaver Hawkins, public affairs manager for AAA Blue Grass. “Christmas Day falls on a Wednesday this year, so AAA is anticipating travel numbers to be at record-breaking levels both on the weekend before and the weekend after the holiday.”
Year-end travel trends by mode
Nearly 90% of holiday travelers will be driving to their destinations, making it the most popular way to travel. With 107 million people expected to travel by car―2.5 million more than last year―the 2024 forecast for vehicle travel remains shy of 2019’s record of 108 million. Many travelers, particularly families with young children, prefer the flexibility and lower cost that road trips provide.
This holiday season, gas prices are lower than last year, when the national average was around $3.12 during the last two weeks of 2023. For the first 10 days of December this year, the national gas price has averaged $3.02. Demand for gasoline in December typically falls with the falling temperatures, which puts downward pressure on pump prices.
Hertz says Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, Phoenix and Tampa are the cities displaying the highest rental demand for the holidays. The busiest car pick-up days are expected to be Friday, December 20, and Saturday, December 21. The busiest time for rental returns is likely to be the weekend and Monday after Christmas. The average length of rental for 2024 holiday travelers is one week.
While the number of road travelers for the year-end holidays this year isn’t expected to break the previous record, AAA expects air travel to set a new record this holiday season, with 7.85 million passengers. That number surpasses the previous air travel record of 7.5 million air travelers last year. AAA booking data shows flights are 4% more expensive this holiday season compared to last year. The average domestic ticket is $830. International flights are 13% more expensive, averaging $1,630 a ticket.
The number of Americans traveling by bus, train, and cruise this holiday season is expected to be up nearly 10% compared to last year. AAA expects 4.47 million people will travel by other modes. That number is the highest it’s been in 20 years. Domestic cruise bookings are up 37% compared to last holiday season. Cruising is popular this time of year, as many families enjoy celebrating the holidays aboard a ship full of activities and food.
AAA’s Road Trip Safety Tips
With an additional 2.5 million travelers expected on the roads during this year-end holiday travel period compared to last year, drivers are reminded to prioritize safety with the following tips:
Follow posted speed limits. While it’s tempting to speed to save time, the facts don’t support the habit. Even minor increases in speed can make crashes deadly, while shaving very little time off the trip. Speeding may feel faster but often leads to tragedy. Driving 80 mph instead of 75 mph saves only 5 minutes over 100 miles―hardly worth the risk.
Drive only when alert and refreshed. Driving on 4-5 hours of sleep is as dangerous as driving with a 0.08 BAC (legal intoxication). With less than 4 hours of sleep, the risk doubles. To avoid fatigue, travel during hours you’re normally awake and avoid overnight drives. Keep in mind that heavy meals, drowsy medications and alcohol can all lead to drowsy driving. For long trips, take breaks every 2 hours or 100 miles. Use these breaks to switch drivers if possible, or park at a safe location and nap for 20-30 minutes to recharge.
Remember to slow down, move over, for those at the roadside. A roadside worker is killed every other week in the U.S. To help prevent these tragedies, drivers are asked to slow down, and if safe to do so, move over a lane. When you see an emergency responder on the side of the road assisting a stranded driver, reduce your speed. If possible, change lanes to give those crews room to do their jobs safely. All 50 states and the District of Columbia have Move Over laws in place. In Kentucky, the law was recently expanded to include disabled vehicles with emergency signals or flashers at the roadside.
Best/worst times to drive and peak congestion by metro
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects drivers will experience the worst traffic delays the weekends before Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. The holidays themselves are expected to have minimal congestion. Drivers in Boston, New York City, Seattle, and Washington, DC could see double the typical delays.
Nationwide, travel times could be up to 30% longer.
“With a near record number of auto travelers expected this holiday season, drivers should expect delays in and around major metro areas, with Sunday, December 22 expected to be the nation’s worst day to travel,” says Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Our advice is to avoid traveling during peak commuting hours during the week. If schedules allow, leave bright and early or after the evening commute.”
AAA Blue Grass
