World War III is already underway. In Ukraine.

Moscow’s sales pitch of a “multipolar world order,” as vaguely defined as it is, has been sufficiently convincing for Iran to provide it with Shahed drones and North Korea to ship it ballistic missiles, millions of shells and, more recently, thousands of troops.

The so-called Global South, too, has tilted toward Putin under the umbrella of BRICS, a club of countries that, despite their stark differences, have found common ground in their shared grudge toward a system that has sidelined them from key institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Moscow’s biggest lifeline is China, which has played a crucial role in buttressing the Russian economy from Western sanctions by providing a market for its oil and fertilizer, while also giving it access to much-needed technology. 

“India and others can trade with Russia and that’s significant. But nothing comes close to what China brings to the table,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Separately, Russia has continued and expanded upon its age-old practice of hybrid warfare, stirring up trouble and widening existing cleavages abroad.

Unlike during the Cold War, however, there aren’t proxy conflicts where Moscow can strike at NATO. So “Russia is trying to look for tools to push back,” in other ways, said Gabuev. “Attach costs, inflict pain, avenge.”