2025 World Juniors predictions: Medalists, Canada vs. USA, awards, relegation and more

By Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler, Max Bultman and The Athletic NHL Staff 

With the festive season in full swing, one of hockey’s ultimate holiday traditions is around the corner.

The 2025 IIHF World Junior Championship offers a glimpse into the future of hockey by showcasing 10 teams and the best under-20 players in the world. Whether you’re a fan keeping a close eye on your NHL team’s pipeline or a big national team supporter, there are plenty of interesting storylines to follow when the tournament opens on Dec. 26 in Ottawa.

Can Team USA win back-to-back gold medals for the first time in the tournament’s history? Can Team Canada bounce back after being upset by Czechia in the quarterfinals last year? Which prospects will raise their stocks?

Ahead of this year’s tournament, The Athletic polled 23 NHL staffers between Dec. 18-20 to get their predictions. All those polled answered each question in the team picks portion of the survey. An expert prospect panel of Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler and Max Bultman was then brought in to pick apart the results, provide analysis and make individual player predictions, too.

Here are the results.

Note: Voting result percentages are rounded for visualizations.

Staff picks

Wheeler: The margins between Canada and USA feel razor-thin this year so I’m happy to see that reflected here. The Canadian squad is deeper up front and on the back end, but the Americans have the strongest nucleus in the tournament (led by the forward line of Ryan Leonard, Gabe Perreault and James Hagens, top defenseman Zeev Buium and a three-timer in net in Trey Augustine) for me and sometimes that’s all you need at this level. I voted for Canada but I nearly voted the other way and it feels like a coin flip to me.

Bultman: There’s always the chance of an upset, but I’d expect USA and Canada to both get through the rest of the group easily enough, so this one should come down to the USA versus Canada game on New Year’s Eve. As Scott alluded to, it’s a fascinating matchup between the tournament’s deepest team and the one with perhaps the most star power. And as the vote here reflects, it can go either way.

Pronman: If I was making odds for the Canada versus USA game that would be roughly the margin. It’s a near coin flip on talent, but despite USA’s star power, Canada can roll far more legit guys out on the ice.

Wheeler: The Czechs have medaled in three straight World Juniors but this feels like more of a three-team tournament between Canada, USA and Sweden. Could the Czechs be the fourth team to make the semifinals? Absolutely. Could goaltender Michael Hrabal steal their game against Sweden in Group B? It’s possible. But the Swedes are the heavy favorites in what is the weaker group in this year’s tournament.

Bultman: With both Canada and USA in Group A, Sweden has a clear path to winning this group, largely on the back of one of the tournament’s best blue lines. Axel Sandin Pellikka, Tom Willander and Theo Lindstein give them as good a top three as any team has.

Pronman: If Sweden doesn’t win the group it would be a major upset, i.e. getting a hot goalie like Hrabal or massive penalty issues.

Team Canada’s biggest advantage in the tournament is their ability to put four deep, balanced lines on the ice. (Sean Kilpatrick / The Canadian Press via AP)

Wheeler: I think heading into the tournament, these odds check out. I do wonder whether they’ll shift though if we were to ask this post-group stage. Once we know the seeding for the quarterfinals, we’ll also know each team’s likely semifinal path. And two of these teams are likely going to have to play each other in a semifinal. That makes the New Year’s Eve game between Canada and USA that much more important this year, because it could position the winner to avoid a semifinal with the Swedes, who are a legit challenger.

Bultman: I’m taking USA to repeat as gold medalists, mainly because they boast the tournament’s best goaltender. Augustine has proven he can handle big-game pressure, and while Canada will be able to throw four deep, balanced lines at USA, I like Augustine’s chances to weather the storm if the Americans can get just enough from their top players.

Pronman: Sweden feels low here. They have a deep team and while I wouldn’t personally pick them to win, I think they are a lot closer to Canada and USA than to the field.

Wheeler: This is fascinating. Our voters heavily favored Canada and USA to win gold, but favored Sweden to beat one of them in a likely semifinal?

Bultman: I certainly wouldn’t rule out the Swedes getting back to the final, especially if they can catch Canada or USA looking ahead to a potential rematch for the gold medal. The gap in voting between gold and silver does make some sense, too, when you consider Sweden would likely need to beat both North American powerhouses to win gold, but just one to get the silver.

GO DEEPER

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Wheeler: I think I like this Czech team a little more than the Finns on paper, and it’s possible we get an excellent quarterfinal matchup between the two if the Finns finish third in Group A to Canada and USA and the Czechs finish second in Group B to Sweden.

Bultman: Canada, USA and Sweden feel like the clear top three in this tournament, so it’s no surprise they dominated the medal voting. The big question is whether there’s another big knockout-round upset in the cards this year like the Czechs knocking out Canada last January.

Bultman: This is the game that should decide Group A, so no surprise that the voting here is identical to the results of that question.

Wheeler: The Slovaks had a really nice run of age groups with Simon Nemec, Dalibor Dvorsky, Adam Sykora and company (Juraj Slafkovský only played in one World Juniors and was 16 when he did) but I’m not sure this group has the horses. The Finns will need big performances from their big dogs (Konsta Helenius, Kasper Halttunen, Aron Kiviharju, Emil Pieniniemi) and the Czechs have the team required to play a tight defensive game in front of Hrabal and potentially pull a rabbit out of their hat.

Bultman: Czechia obviously had the tournament’s big upset last year, but Finland is a constant threat in tournament play. The roster may not leap off the page, but we’ve said that before only to see them play sound, structured hockey and frustrate a top team.

Pronman: Czechia upset Canada last year on the back of Hrabal who has stolen a lot of big games in international play. That to me is the clear path to an upset as opposed to a slightly superior, but still middling Finland group outplaying a favorite.

Wheeler: The Kazakhs are in tough and their best hope to avoid relegation likely rests on the lone Senators prospect in the tournament: goaltender Vladimir Nikitin. No pressure, kid.

Bultman: How awesome would it be for Sens superfans to really show out for him at the Kazakhstan games?

Panel picks

Wheeler: The Swedes have the softer group and should have a soft quarterfinal, but I think USA’s top line of Perreault-Hagens-Leonard does the most damage in the tournament and I expect the leading scorer to come from that line. I leaned toward Perreault because of his playmaking ability and the integral role he’ll play in connecting their top power play.

Bultman: Sweden should have an easier schedule in group play than USA or Canada, and Stenberg will be leaned on heavily throughout. He was already a top scorer at last year’s tournament, so I’ll pick him to lead the way this time around.

Pronman: Leonard will be the best forward on the tournament’s best line.

Wheeler: I picked Canada to win the tournament and an American to win MVP and while the latter normally comes from the former team, our ballots are submitted at the end of the first period of the gold medal game and I’m just not sure this Canadian team has a clear-cut Guy.

Bultman: I already said Augustine was the reason I was picking USA to win the tournament, so we’ll just make it easy and pick him here. He’s the biggest edge the Americans have.

Pronman: Cowan looks to be the go-to player for Canada in this tournament after dominating the OHL over the past 18 months. He’s a big-game player, with a super high motor who makes a ton of plays.

GO DEEPER

Cowan, Canada smash Switzerland in World Juniors pre-tournament win

Team USA goalie Trey Augustine is the biggest edge the Americans have in the tournament. (Adam Ihse / TT / TT News Agency / AFP via Getty Images)

Wheeler: This is a layup for me. Augustine’s the best goalie in the tournament, the best goalie prospect in the tournament from an NHL perspective and he’s playing on one of the top teams.

Bultman: He put up a .936 save percentage in four games at last year’s tournament. My biggest questions are if he can possibly improve on that number this time around, and whether the Americans rest him for any games in group play.

Wheeler: I nearly had Buium here but Sandin Pellikka won the award for the tournament’s top defenseman at last year’s event and I expect him to be in the mix again. He’s a sneaky contender for tournament MVP as well in my opinion. If Sweden makes it to the gold medal game again, it’ll very likely be because Sandin Pellikka has had one of the best performances in the tournament.

Bultman: I went with Buium because I think USA will need to rely on him a bit more than Sweden will with Sandin Pellikka. Both are hugely important to their teams, but Willander was a fellow high pick who can eat huge minutes, and Lindstein actually outscored Sandin Pellikka at last year’s tournament. No disrespect to the American blue line, but the drop-off after Buium is wider for USA.

Pronman: USA’s power play should be deadly, led by Buium. I also think he’s going to play so much in the medal-round games relative to Sandin Pellikka, who plays on a deeper blue line.

Axel Sandin Pellikka was selected as the tournament’s top defenseman last year. (Adam Ihse / TT / TT News Agency / AFP via Getty Images)

Bultman: I went with Ritchie as Canada’s top-line center. He’s having another great year in Oshawa and will be a go-to player.

🎥 | Oliver Bonk, Calum Ritchie and Easton Cowan scored in the 3rd period to lead 🇨🇦 to a 4-2 pre-tournament win over 🇸🇪.

🎥 | Oliver Bonk, Calum Ritchie et Easton Cowan marquent au 3ème tiers pour mener le 🇨🇦 à un gain de 4-2 contre la 🇸🇪.
#WorldJuniors | #MondialJunior pic.twitter.com/nqgRZhXsVO

— Hockey Canada (@HockeyCanada) December 22, 2024

Wheeler: I think the three-way race for No. 1 in 2025 between Schaefer, Hagens and Porter Martone is a big storyline of this year’s tournament, but Hagens — the U17 and U18 worlds single-tournament points record holder — enters it in the best position for success playing between Perreault and Leonard. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s the best NHL prospect. But I expect him to have the top tournament. Martone is going to be a top-nine winger for Canada and Schaefer projects to be an important potential second-pairing D for them, but Hagens starts as USA’s first-line center and I expect him to finish as it too.

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Bultman: If Schaefer does end up quarterbacking Canada’s first power play and playing a legit top-four role, then it could easily be him. But we already know Hagens is in a great spot to succeed with Leonard and Perreault, and on USA’s first power play. Having three of the potential top-four picks in next year’s draft at this tournament is going to make for some fantastic theater and discussion.

Pronman: Schaefer continues to play better and better and looks to be in a premier role for Canada to start the tournament. He could establish himself as the No. 1 pick by the end of the tournament due to his rare combination of size, skating and skill.

GO DEEPER

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(Top photos of Easton Cowan and Gabe Perreault: Sean Kilpatrick / The Canadian Press via AP and Jesper Zerman / Bildbyran / Sipa USA / Sipa via AP Images)