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NFL Week 17 picks: Christmas Day doubleheader has playoff implications

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NFL Week 17 picks: Christmas Day doubleheader has playoff implications

(Tim Hubbard / Los Angeles Times)

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 9-7 (.563); season 163-77 (.679). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-10 (.375); season 126-112-2 (.529). Times Pacific. TV channels are Los Angeles local.

CHIEFS (14-1) AT STEELERS (10-5)

Chiefs wide receiver Hollywood Brown makes a catch during warmups before a game against the Texans.Chiefs wide receiver Hollywood Brown makes a catch during warmups before a game against the Texans.

Chiefs wide receiver Hollywood Brown made five catches for 45 yards against the Texans last week. (Reed Hoffmann / Associated Press)

Today, 10 a.m. TV: Netflix

Line: Chiefs by 2½. O/U: 42½.

Regardless of the stakes, the Chiefs don’t want to take their foot off the gas. They want to get some rhythm going with Hollywood Brown. Then again, Steelers are good in games on a big stage.

Pick: Chiefs 24, Steelers 18

RAVENS (10-5) AT TEXANS (9-6)

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud warms up by throwing passes before a game.Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud warms up by throwing passes before a game.

A lot has fallen onto the shoulders of quarterback C.J. Stroud for the Texans this season. (Justin Berl / Getty Images)

Today, 1:30 p.m. TV: Netflix

Line: Ravens by 4½. O/U: 46½.

The Texans can’t fill out their receiving corps, and the Tank Dell injury is really going to hurt them. They probably won’t run it well enough, and that heaps the pressure on C.J. Stroud.

Pick: Ravens 28, Texans 21

SEAHAWKS (8-7) AT BEARS (4-11)

Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) warms up by throwing passes before a game.Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) warms up by throwing passes before a game.

Quarterback Geno Smith (7) must deliver in order for the Seahawks to keep pace with the NFC West-leading Rams. (Kyusung Gong / Associated Press)

Thursday, 5:15 p.m. TV: Prime Video

Line: Seahawks by 3½. O/U: 43½.

The Seahawks need this to keep pace with the Rams. The Bears have lost nine in a row. Chicago tends to dig a big hole before its offense gets rolling. Should pick up yards on the ground vs. Seattle.

Pick: Seahawks 30, Bears 23

CHARGERS (9-6) AT PATRIOTS (3-12)

Chargers linebackers Khalil Mack (52) and Joey Bosa watch action from the bench with their helmets off.Chargers linebackers Khalil Mack (52) and Joey Bosa watch action from the bench with their helmets off.

Having linebackers Khalil Mack (52) and Joey Bosa as edge rushers on the field together has helped the Chargers pass rush. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Saturday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS), NFL Network

Line: Chargers by 5½. O/U: 43½.

The Patriots will have a good game plan, and Drake Maye will throw it well, but he’ll probably wind up with an interception or two. The Chargers are getting better off the edge.

Pick: Chargers 24, Patriots 20

BRONCOS (9-6) AT BENGALS (7-8)

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) runs off the field after a victory over the Titans.Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) runs off the field after a victory over the Titans.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) has played at an MVP level this season, just not the rest of the team. (Stew Milne / Associated Press)

Saturday, 1:30 p.m. TV: NFL Network

Line: Bengals by 3. O/U: 49½.

Joe Burrow is in the MVP conversation even though his team has a losing record. The Bengals are still in it until the math tells them they aren’t. Denver’s defense is good but the secondary has dropped off.

Pick: Bengals 28, Broncos 23

CARDINALS (7-8) AT RAMS (9-6)

Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) passes against the Rams in September.Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) passes against the Rams in September.

Quarterback Kyler Murray (1) led the Cardinals to a 41-10 victory over the Rams in September. (Rick Scuteri / Associated Press)

Saturday, 5:10 p.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS), NFL Network

Line: Rams by 5½. O/U: 48½.

The Rams owe them one after a beat down earlier this season. The Cardinals have been eliminated, and running back James Conner sat out the second half Sunday with a knee injury. Rams keep rolling.

Pick: Rams 28, Cardinals 22

COWBOYS (7-8) AT EAGLES (12-3)

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) escapes the pocket and runs against the Commanders in Week 16.Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) escapes the pocket and runs against the Commanders in Week 16.

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) suffered a concussion after being tackled on a run against the Commanders. (Peter Joneleit / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 11 (FOX), NFL Ticket

Line: Eagles by 10½. O/U: 43½.

Cooper Rush is doing a much better job than many people expected. Availability of Jalen Hurts is important but, either way, Saquon Barkley will be able to do damage on the ground.

Pick: Eagles 31, Cowboys 23

JETS (4-11) AT BILLS (12-3)

The Bills' James Cook (4) runs for a touchdown past Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez in Week 16.The Bills' James Cook (4) runs for a touchdown past Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez in Week 16.

The Bills’ James Cook (4) ran 11 times for 100 yards and this touchdown past Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez in Week 16. (Jeffrey T. Barnes / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS), NFL Ticket

Line: Bills by 9½. O/U: 47½.

If the Bills get James Cook going, they can rack up the yards on that Jets defense. Buffalo knows it has to get going before the playoffs. AFC East opponents so it could be close for a while.

Pick: Bills 27, Jets 20

RAIDERS (3-12) AT SAINTS (5-10)

Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell (12) holds his helmet before a game against the Jaguars.Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell (12) holds his helmet before a game against the Jaguars.

The Raiders have looked better with Aidan O’Connell (12) at quarterback. (David Becker / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Saints by 2½. O/U: 39½.

The Saints were on wrong end of the only shutout this season. They can’t generate any consistent offense with quarterback Spencer Rattler and that porous line. The Raiders aren’t much but can win this.

Pick: Raiders 21, Saints 17

COLTS (7-8) AT GIANTS (2-13)

The Colts' Jonathan Taylor (28) runs in open field against the Titans.The Colts' Jonathan Taylor (28) runs in open field against the Titans.

The Colts’ Jonathan Taylor (28) rushed for 218 yards in 29 carries against the Titans in Week 16. (Zach Bolinger / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Colts by 7½. O/U: 40½.

Somehow, the Colts scored 38 points with Anthony Richardson completing just seven of 11 passes. Weird. Giants aren’t terrible against the run, but Jonathan Taylor is a handful.

Pick: Colts 24, Giants 21

TITANS (3-12) AT JAGUARS (3-12)

Raiders defensive tackle John Jenkins forces an errant throw by Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones.Raiders defensive tackle John Jenkins forces an errant throw by Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones.

Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones has lost to the Raiders and the Jets in his last two starts. (John Locher / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Jaguars by 1½. O/U: 40½.

Bad teams might result in an interesting game. The Jaguars are coming off back-to-back losses to the Jets and Raiders. Give it to Tennessee. The defense is due for a bounce-back game.

Pick: Titans 23, Jaguars 20

PANTHERS (4-11) AT BUCCANEERS (8-7)

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) sets to throw against the Cowboys.Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) sets to throw against the Cowboys.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) needs to get the Buccaneers back on track after their upset loss to the Cowboys. (Jerome Miron / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Buccaneers by 7½. O/U: 49½.

The Panthers are feeling good. They’re coming off a big overtime win over Arizona, and they took the Buccaneers to overtime a few weeks ago. Tampa Bay needs this one more.

Pick: Buccaneers 28, Panthers 23

DOLPHINS (7-8) AT BROWNS (3-12)

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) sets to throw against the 49ers.Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) sets to throw against the 49ers.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) kept the Dolphins’ playoff hopes alive with a victory over the 49ers. (Lynne Sladky / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Dolphins by 6½. O/U: 40½.

This still matters to the Dolphins. The Browns are done. If Cleveland goes back to Jameis Winston, anything can happen. Miami has won five of seven and will find a way on the road.

Pick: Dolphins 28, Browns 18

PACKERS (11-4) AT VIKINGS (13-2)

Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) eludes Seahawks linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (10) in Week 16.Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) eludes Seahawks linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (10) in Week 16.

Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14), shown eluding Seahawks linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (10) in Week 16, has kept his stride this season. (Lindsey Wasson / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Channel 11 (FOX)

Line: Vikings by 1½. O/U: 48½.

Should be a great game. The Vikings have so much going on offensively at the moment and Sam Darnold is redefining himself. Packers need big plays to combat that Minnesota blitz.

Pick: Vikings 28, Packers 24

FALCONS (8-7) AT COMMANDERS (10-5)

Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) sets to throw against the Giants.Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) sets to throw against the Giants.

Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) will make his second NFL start when the Falcons play the Commanders. (Danny Karnik / Associated Press)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: Channel 4 (NBC)

Line: Commanders by 4½. O/U: 46½.

The Commanders are going to load up against the run and make Michael Penix beat them. It’s going to be hard for that Falcons defense to hang with Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin & Co.

Pick: Commanders 27, Falcons 20

LIONS (13-2) AT 49ERS (6-9)

A smiling Jared Goff talks to reporters after a Lions victory.A smiling Jared Goff talks to reporters after a Lions victory.

Playing in the Bay Area always puts a smile on the face of Jared Goff, who grew up in northern California. (Erin Hooley / Associated Press)

Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: Channel 7, ESPN

Line: Lions by 3½. O/U: 51½.

The 49ers are out of pieces. So many injuries. Their defensive line doesn’t look the same, and those Lions blockers will control the line of scrimmage. Jared Goff returns home for a big game.

Pick: Lions 35, 49ers 24

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

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