The world’s most violent region needs a new approach to crime

In 2019 Ecuador was a peaceful tourist destination. The homicide rate was under seven per 100,000, roughly the same as in the United States. By 2023 it was almost 45 per 100,000, making it the deadliest country in mainland Latin America, itself the world’s most violent region (see chart 1). Durán in Ecuador, the world’s most violent city, had a jaw-dropping murder rate of 148 per 100,000 last year. The country has been swept by a wave of organised crime, focused on smuggling cocaine from Colombia to Europe via Ecuadorian ports. The rest of Latin America is suffering too, as transnational criminal groups expand. Even sleepy Costa Rica and Uruguay are seeing increased violence.

In response, the region’s governments (including Ecuador’s) have become fond of mano dura, or iron-fist policies. These include calling states of emergency, indiscriminate mass incarceration, and sending the army onto the streets to keep order. Such tactics have received a boost from their apparent success in El Salvador. In March 2022 the president, Nayib Bukele, declared a state of emergency after gangs killed 87 people in a single weekend. Since then, the government has thrown almost 80,000 people—over 1% of the population—into jail. The homicide rate has fallen to near-European levels, and Mr Bukele has become perhaps the world’s most popular elected leader. In a referendum on April 21st Ecuadorians overwhelmingly backed tougher anti-crime measures proposed by President Daniel Noboa, including overturning a constitutional ban on the extradition of criminals, letting the army permanently patrol streets and prisons, and removing the possibility of early release for well-behaved inmates.