AL West Gambling Report: Early Season Surprises

It’s hard to believe that we’re already 25% of the way through the 2024 MLB campaign. Looking at the AL West standings, there are a few major surprises, both good and bad. The division with the defending World Series champion as well as a perennial betting favorite to contend for the title is a little topsy-turvy compared to the preseason predictions.

Let’s look closer at our AL West Gambling Report and see how they’re progressing a quarter of the way through the season.

Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners sit atop the AL West standings heading into May 14 action, leading the division by 1.5 games over the Texas Rangers. While this is above their projected finishing spot based on the preseason betting predictions, the Mariners are on about the same pace as was expected of them.

Seattle had +300 odds to win the AL West heading into the 2024 campaign, which was the third-best odds among the division’s five teams. The Mariners’ win total for over/under bets was 87.5 wins, and they’re currently on pace for 89 victories by season’s end. If you took the -115 odds for the over, you have a pretty good shot at a winning wager, but the under, at -105, is also in play.

The Mariners were -145 to make the postseason, which seems like a potentially winning bet right now, while there were +115 odds that Seattle would be left out of the playoff party.

Texas Rangers

At just 1.5 games behind the Mariners, Texas is still in play for the division crown. The defending World Series champions had the second-best odds to be the AL West champion coming into the season, getting +215 odds.

The Rangers were 22-21 through their first 43 games this season, or a .512 winning percentage. That translates to 82.9 wins over a 162-game season, so Texas is lagging from its projected 88.5-win total. The over for that total was +100, while the under was given -120 odds.

Still, Texas could make a run once it gets some of its injured starting pitchers back. The Rangers currently have quite the rotation on the injured list, with Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Cody Bradford, Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle, and Dane Dunning all sitting out. The return to health of just half of those players could spur the Rangers to go on a run.

Oakland Athletics

The pleasant surprise of the division is the Oakland Athletics. They were among the MLB picks for the possibly worst team in baseball in the preseason. The Athletics organization, which has been in the headlines mainly for relocating out of Oakland, has to be pleased with its record of 19-24 after 43 games.

Five games under .500 might not be a good start for most teams, but consider that the Athletics’ win total was set at 57.5 wins, and the team is on pace for 71.6 victories, and you can understand the good feelings coming from Oakland.

Will the Athletics make a run at the division title? Likely not. If they did, anyone who put a wager down on them at +15000 odds in the preseason would be pretty happy. But any finish south of 70 wins would certainly raise the optimism of this long-suffering club. We’ll likely see them play MLB prospects by the end of the season after it trades away most of its veterans.

Houston Astros

The biggest disappointment in the AL West – and all of baseball – is the Houston Astros. The odds-on favorite to win the division crown (-110) and the American League (+450, along with the New York Yankees) is 16-25 through 41 games.

The Astros are off their pace for their projected win total of 93.5 wins. If Houston was to keep up its current pace through 162 games, it would end with 63 victories. That would make the under bet of -115 the winner.

An even more lucrative bet that could hit based on the early-season results is Houston missing the postseason for the first time since 2016. If you bet that the postseason would proceed without the Astros, you’d be winning a bet with +325 odds. Houston was -450 to make the playoffs heading into the 2024 campaign.

Los Angeles Angels

Stop us if you’ve heard this one, but the Los Angeles Angels are struggling thanks to an injury to … Mike Trout. The team’s first season post-Shohei Ohtani has been much like the ones with the superstar on the roster.

Trout has played just 29 games this season after playing just 82 last season. He also played fewer than 55 games in both 2020 and 2021, so it’s becoming a broken record in Anaheim unfortunately.

There wasn’t a lot expected from the Angels this season. Their projected win total was 72.5, though they’re not even on pace for that. With a 15-27 record, Los Angeles’ current winning percentage would translate to just 57.8 wins by season’s end. Coming into the season, the under for the win total was set at -110 odds, as was the over.

Still A Ways To Go

Things can certainly turn around in a hurry, especially with 75% of the season still to be played. Houston could make a run. Oakland could bottom out. Almost any scenario is possible with so much baseball still to be played.

As shown by this AL West gambling report, this division could get crazy. Every game counts, with last season a great example, as Seattle finished two games behind Texas in the regular-season standings. The Mariners missed the postseason, while the Rangers won their first World Series title.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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