CT DOL Significantly Revises March Job Growth Downward, Reports Employment Gains in April

In its latest report on the April 2024 labor situation, the Connecticut Department of Labor (CTDOL) significantly revised its March job growth figures down from an initially reported 4,900 jobs to just 500. CTDOL Commissioner Danté Bartolomeo said the revision was caused by a lower-than-expected survey response rate, as detailed in the department’s May 16 report. 

The adjustment was due to a decline in Administrative and Support Services, which was larger than previously estimated. Also, the gains in Accommodation and Food Services, Retail and Wholesale trades were not as large as previously reported. 

Estimating monthly job numbers involves collecting surveys from employers about payroll jobs. These estimates are then updated the following month to reflect additional survey responses received after the initial deadline. 

Patrick Flaherty, CTDOL economist and Director of Research, acknowledged the unusual discrepancy between initial job estimates and their subsequent revisions, noting, “While it’s unusual to have such a wide swing from estimated numbers to the revisions, it’s a good example of why we look at data trends rather than focusing on one month.”  

Flaherty also pointed out the bigger picture of the state’s economic health, stating, “Some months are stronger than others, but overall, Connecticut’s economy continues to steadily add jobs.” 

The report shows that Connecticut employers added an estimated 1,100 jobs in April, and the state’s unemployment rate marginally improved to 4.4% from the 4.5% reported in March. 

In a video accompanying the report, Flaherty noted, “Jobs have increased an average of 2,500 per month so far in 2024, adding, “This pace is faster than the average for all of 2023.” He cautioned that this “may be a repeat of the pattern we’ve seen in recent years of very strong job growth in the first part of the year, followed by a slowdown in the second half.” 

Over the past year, employment in Connecticut’s industries has grown by 21,600 jobs, a 1.3% rise from the April 2023 total of 1,684,200. The state has successfully regained 102.5%, or 298,300, of the nonagricultural jobs that were lost during the March-April 2020 COVID-19 lockdown period. 

Additionally, the Private Sector has reclaimed 103.8% of the jobs it shed during the COVID lockdowns. On the other hand, the Government Sector has recovered 87.8% of its lost jobs, which includes civilian federal, state, local and tribal government employment, as well as public education and positions at Native American casinos on federally recognized reservations. Despite this, the sector did manage to add 3,900 jobs, marking a 1.7% increase from last year’s levels. 

Driving the growth this month were increases in seven of the ten major industry supersectors, including Educational and Health Services (+1,000); Government (+800); Financial Activates (+600); Manufacturing (+600); Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+300); Construction and Mining (+200); Information (+100). 

The Leisure and Hospitality sector experienced the sharpest decline, shedding 1,200 jobs. Meanwhile, Other Services and Professional and Business Services also faced setbacks, losing 700 and 600 jobs, respectively. 

In April, employment growth in nonfarm industries was seen across four of Connecticut’s six major Labor Market Areas (LMAs). Leading the charge, the Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk (+0.2%) and New Haven (+0.3%) LMAs each boasted an addition of 800 jobs.  

The Waterbury LMA saw the largest monthly percentage gain, increasing by 0.6% with the addition of 400 jobs. The Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford LMA also saw growth, adding 500 positions, a modest increase of 0.1%. Conversely, the Norwich-New London-Westerly LMA faced a decrease, shedding 400 jobs — a 3% decline. Similarly, the Danbury LMA cut 100 positions, marking a 0.1% reduction. 

Connecticut’s labor force has grown for the fourth consecutive month, with the Labor Force Participation Rate holding steady at 64.6%, nearly two percentage points above the national average of 62.7%. Currently, the state has approximately 25,000 individuals filing for unemployment. The next update on the Labor Situation is scheduled for release on June 24, 2024.