Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 05/17 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) NY Knicks @ Indiana Pacers -2 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN

Home court has definitely mattered in this series, fueling the home squad to strong starts in every game. The Knicks were plus-9 in the first quarters of the three games at MSG, while the Pacers rolled to 9 and 20-point leads in Games 3 and 4.

Playing with their backs against the wall, I think Indiana feeds off the home-court energy again here. The Knicks are officially without OG Anunoby for this game, so the Pacers will have an easier time getting their elite offense rolling early. I think this series goes 7 games, but I’m much more willing to lay this short number than the big full-game one.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Seattle Storm @ Minnesota Lynx +1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ION

Vibes are high for Minnesota basketball right now, so let’s see if the Lynx can pick up some of the energy that was in Target Center last night. The number here is a little confusing given that the Lynx just beat the Storm in Seattle on Tuesday.

This was supposed to be a new-look Storm team after they brought in some high-level talent in the offseason, but that hasn’t gelled quite yet. The Lynx are good enough defensively to exploit that lack of chemistry, which they did on Tuesday night, and I’ll take the points with them in their home debut here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Storm/Lynx Under 164.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

These teams got into a few shootouts last season while both were having significant defensive issues. But the Lynx really focused on that down the stretch of last year and into this year, with the improvement being obvious on Tuesday. If Seattle’s chemistry issues continue on offense, this time away from home, then we’re looking at a total that’s much too high tonight.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washinton Mystics/Connecticut Sun Over 158 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

I’m surprised that this total has come down somewhat, as there’s a lot of offensive potential between these teams. Particularly from the Sun, who are kind of like the WNBA’s version of the Pacers with their up-tempo approach. They can score on anyone, especially a Washington team that’s likely to be one of the league’s worst this season.

The Mystics are kind of a wildcard though, as their style will probably be a lot of firing away from deep. That can really fuel an over whether the shots are dropping, or long rebounds are creating fast break points for Connecticut. In their opening games, the Connecticut offense looked unstoppable while the Washington defense was torched, so I expect both to continue tonight in a high-scoring affair.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2282-2101 ATS (+85.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.