It’s shaping up to be a tough summer for the stock market, but Nvidia could help salvage things

But first, stocks are out for summer.

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The big story

Summertime sadness

There’s an old saying on Wall Street this time of year: “Sell in May and go away.”

The summer months have historically been tough on stocks. The S&P 500 has averaged about a 2% gain from May through October since 1990. That considerably lags the average performance from November through April (7%), according to Fidelity.

But, to borrow another well-worn Wall Street phrase, “past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.” The market has reached record highs this month! Maybe, this time will be different…

Unfortunately for investors, some market experts don’t see it that way, writes Business Insider’s Jennifer Sor. Stocks are on track to either remain flat or turn negative going forward, according to two market vets Jennifer spoke to.

It’s not a matter of history repeating itself, though. The pessimism about stocks’ future is due to a few factors. Stocks are priced incredibly high, giving them little room to run. A recession is still very much in the cards. And then there’s that whole election thing in November.

The bleak outlook isn’t a popular take after cool inflation data renewed hopes interest rate cuts might not be so far off. But that thesis falls apart when you consider how sensitive Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been about moving too quickly on rate decisions.

So apologies to the high-end restaurants in the Hamptons and Montauk. The end result, as BI’s Linette Lopez previously wrote, could be that Wall Street’s summer plans have been dashed.

There is, however, one company that could salvage things: Nvidia.

The crown jewel of the AI frenzy has had a relatively quiet few months after an explosive start to the year, when it surged more than 64% in the first two months. Its stock is only up about 12% since March.

Nvidia takes center stage again on Wednesday when it reports earnings for its fiscal first quarter of 2025 after the bell.

Big numbers and a strong outlook could get the market riled up about the potential for AI again. As the key chipmaker in the space, a win for Nvidia is a win for everyone betting on AI being the future.

But something short of that could spell more trouble.

News brief

Your Monday headline catchup

A quick recap of the top news from over the weekend:

3 things in markets

1. No, Warren Buffett’s mountain of cash isn’t a cause for concern. The legendary investor’s Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $189 billion in cash, leading some to speculate a stock market crash is imminent. But one fund manager said the stockpile is really a product of Berkshire being so large that there are only a few companies it can invest in to really move the needle.
2. How much Wall Street is paying for AI talent. BI collected salary data for AI roles at 8 banks, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, to get a sense of the going rate for tech talent. Here’s how much they are shelling out, from $95,000 for an analyst role to upwards of $260,000 to be an executive director of data science.
3. Michael Burry is betting on gold. The “Big Short” investor revealed an $8 million wager on the precious metal this week. John Paulson, who also made his name calling the mid-2000s housing crash, has also piled into gold.

3 things in tech

1. Meta has a desperate plan to win back Gen Zers. People are posting on Instagram less and less. In a bid to win them back, Instagram is awarding users virtual rewards for certain “achievements” or milestones on the platform. It doesn’t look promising.
2. This could be the future of IVF. Conceivable Life Sciences is building robots and AI models to automate crucial parts of IVF. Its cofounders say it could save patients tens of thousands of dollars.
3. Slimmer iPhones might be on the way. The Information reported on Friday that Apple is working on a redesign of its flagship product that could launch alongside the iPhone 17 in September 2025. The phone will likely cost over $1,200 to buy, per the outlet.

3 things in business

1. Oracle’s deadly gamble. Larry Ellison bet $28 billion that he could revolutionize healthcare. With the purchase of medical-records company Cerner, the billionaire planned to pump its vast trove of medical data into Oracle’s AI models and develop an electronic health record system of the future. So far, it’s been a disaster.
2. Middle class but still pinching pennies? Welcome to the club. Middle-income Americans aren’t living middle-class lifestyles — research shows they’re spending more like lower-income workers instead.
3. Don’t expect AI to crack the influencer game just yet. AI-made short-form video ads have gone viral — and fueled content creators’ concern that selling their likeness could hinder their future work opportunities. But industry experts aren’t expecting the tech to replace real people, for now.

In other news

What’s happening today

• Today’s earnings: Zoom and other companies are reporting.
• Jury trial held for the man charged with murder of Cash App founder Bill Lee.

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, editor, in London. George Glover, reporter, in London.