More than three months before the 2024-25 campaign commences, NFL regular-season win totals are on the oddsboard and getting attention.
And early wagering shows a lot of interest in two teams from one state.
“The main action that we’re seeing has involved the state of Pennsylvania,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said, alluding to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles.
Feazel provides his insights on where bettors are hitting the Over and the Under in early betting on NFL season win totals.
Pros vs. Joes
The Steelers made two offseason additions at quarterback, and both were NFL starters.
Russell Wilson signed with the Steelers after getting dumped by the Denver Broncos. Justin Fields landed in Pittsburgh via a trade with the Chicago Bears.
So the Kenny Pickett era in Pittsburgh was a short one, ending after just two seasons.
Bettors are intrigued by both sides of the Steelers’ season win total.
“There’s really a lot of back-and-forth,” Feazel said. “Ever since the Steelers got both quarterbacks, there’s been heavy interest in the Steelers going over their win total. We opened at 7.5 wins, and now it’s been bet up to 8.5. It’s a real love affair with the Steelers so far.”
But there is some push back betting on the Under, too. At 8.5 wins, the Under is -160 and the Over +130.
“The Steelers have the most interest of all the teams, with the public liking the Over and sharps liking the Under,” Feazel said. “It seems like it’s a do-or-die year for Mike Tomlin, and the interest in the Steelers has been phenomenal.”
Steelers have third-toughest schedule entering next season
Fly Eagles Fly
Similar to their cross-state peers, the Eagles are getting support to clear their regular-season win total. Caesars opened Philadelphia at 10.5, with the Under a -135 favorite. The total remains 10.5, but with the Over a -125 favorite.
After a 10-1 start last season, the Eagles stumbled into the playoffs, losing five of their last six games. That forced Jalen Hurts & Co. into a Wild Card road game against Tampa Bay, and the Eagles got blown out 32-9 as 3-point favorites.
Still, bettors expect Philadelphia to surpass 10.5 wins this season.
“There’s a decent amount of action on the Over for the Eagles. They really like the offensive coordinator hire (Kellen Moore) and bringing in Saquon Barkley,” Feazel said, alluding to the former New York Giants running back signing with the Eagles. “Obviously, they lose Jason Kelce at center to retirement, and they had a regression last year late in the season.
“But they’re looking to be back at the top of the NFC, and their schedule is favorable to be so.”
The Bryce Is Right?
The Carolina Panthers were a league-worst 2-15 last season behind rookie QB Bryce Young. Caesars expects some improvement this season, posting the Panthers’ Over/Under at 5.5 wins.
That said, the Under is a -150 favorite, while the Over is +125. And only one team has a lower season win total: New England, at 5 (Over -125).
But early action on Carolina has surprised Feazel.
“A pretty popular betting market is the Panthers Over,” Feazel said. “They’re expecting that the Panthers might not be as bad, and that Bryce Young will show some signs of life.”
One reason for such optimism, Feazel said, is new Carolina coach Dave Canales. Last season, Canales was offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers, helping revive Baker Mayfield’s career.
Under Takers
Feazel pointed to two teams drawing Under money in NFL season win totals. The first?
“Surprisingly, the 49ers. But that action was really correlated with the schedule release and the 49ers not having favorable rest in some spots,” Feazel said of the defending NFC champions.
Do Chiefs or 49ers have the better chance to reach Super Bowl LIX?
In Week 1, San Francisco is at home against the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. So that means a slightly shorter week before heading to Minnesota. San Fran hosts Arizona on Sunday of Week 5, then travels to Seattle for the Week 6 Thursday night game.
The 49ers host Chicago on Week 14 Sunday, then have the Los Angeles Rams in San Francisco for the Thursday of Week 15.
Along with those short-rest spots, San Fran has a Week 7 Super Bowl rematch with visiting Kansas City, a Week 8 road trip to Dallas and a Week 13 contest at Buffalo.
Caesars opened the Niners’ season win total at 11.5, with the Over and Under both -110. It’s still 11.5, but Under is a -130 favorite. That said, Feazel expects the public betting masses to eventually show up for San Francisco.
“The 49ers faithful will come in on the Over,” he said. “In my opinion, they are still the most talented team in the NFL. So we’ll expect 49ers money on the Over as we get closer to the season.”
The Chiefs join the 49ers with an Over/Under of 11.5, the highest in Caesars’ NFL season win total market.
And The Second?
The other team seeing significant Under play at Caesars Sports is the Tennessee Titans.
Last year, Tennessee went 6-11, then fired coach Mike Vrabel after his sixth season. Brian Callahan left his post as Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator to replace Vrabel.
Caesars opened the Titans’ season win total at 6.5, with the Over and Under at -110. The Under moved to as much as a -140 favorite and is now -130.
“The thought process [for bettors] is that the new coach is not gonna be like Vrabel. Callahan runs a spread offense, which is not something Will Levis has done,” Feazel said of the second-year Titans QB. “The market is so down on the Titans, who are not expected to perform at a high level.
“The transition is gonna take some time. So I’m not surprised to see a lot of Under money.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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