Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 05/31 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Mercury Team Total Under 79 @ Minnesota Lynx (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ION

Farewell sweet Wolves, guess it’s time to become a diehard Lynx fan now. I really do love what this team is doing on defense, and I think it continues tonight despite all the negative energy still swirling in Target Center. On Wednesday the Lynx held the best offense in the league to just 80 points, by far the lowest output for Vegas this season, so I think they can do a couple points better against this inconsistent Mercury team.

Phoenix has had a lot of varied results lately, including the worst three-point shooting performance in WNBA history on Tuesday night. But with Brittney Griner and Rebecca Allen still not back for another few games this team is generally lacking on offense. What I would argue is the best defense in the league should slow them down in a bounce back spot off Wednesday’s loss.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces Team Total Over 90 @ Atlanta Dream (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

Speaking of that top offense in the league, belonging to the Aces, they look to bounce back from being held down by the Lynx last game. I think they do pretty easily against an Atlanta team that can’t guard much of anything. The Dream have benefited from a very easy schedule so far, only facing one opponent with a strong offense and that was a game where the Lynx put 92 on them. This Aces team is averaging 89.0 PPG despite the Lynx holding them down, and is likely to get Chelsea Gray back tonight to add depth and scoring punch. Vegas loves to run out bad defenses, so look for the Aces to have no mercy as they hang a big number tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

The total in this game is held down by Tanner Bibee getting the start for Cleveland, and he’s been excellent. But what that does in turn is hold down Cleveland’s isolated total, which is crazy against a pitcher like they’ll see tonight. Good old Patrick Corbin is still a pretty reliable gas can, especially on the road where he has a 6.68 ERA and .366 opponent on-base average. He’s going against the league’s third-highest scoring offense that’s actually much better against lefties like him, so expect a big number out of the Guardians tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Angels/Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 9:10 PM CT on AppleTV+

The Mariners are an under machine, owning the best under record in the league overall and cashing unders at home at a 70.4% clip. That’s what happens when you have elite pitching and no offense, as Seattle is only scoring more than the White Sox who hardly qualify as a major league team.

Key for this bet, they’re also ahead of only Chicago for first five innings scoring, while ranking 5th in first five innings runs allowed at home. With Bryan Woo starting, that’s likely to continue as he’s been nearly untouchable since getting a late start to the season. He also has excellent numbers in limited action against this Angels team that is having plenty of issues scoring themselves, particularly against righties like Woo.

But LA will counter with Jose Soriano who is more than capable of keeping the Mariner bats quiet. Soriano has been amazing on the road this season with a 1.67 ERA and .179 opponent on-base average, and T-Mobile Park is where scoring goes to die. It’s a low number here, but the pitching and offensive futility justify it, and the plus-juice return has me jumping in.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2307-2122 ATS (+88.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.